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Would relegation be that bad?

Muttley said:
lol - what I was doing is called leadership. Some would call it lazy delegation :cool:

I knew it was absolutely loose work. Good enough for government work as we used to say.

On a serious note, I had shifted from £100m closer to £150m just on reading a couple of articles. I didn't have the time to do any analysis but really appreciate someone digging around for the data. Thanks for that. It's an interesting read and feels about right.

What we're talking about is the real conversation about the relegation concern. It's not whether Romero goes to Spain or stays. It's more about how we would hold things together and manage the downsize at the same time as being competitive. There is no scenario where relegation could be a good thing and a chance to do a reset. Your numbers almost prove it could take years to recover.
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If we came back within 1 year it wouldn’t be too much of an issue due to the parachute money. They can in on 4/5 players and invest some of that in players they think we need to help us get up.

The issue comes if they don’t come straight back up.
 
robp135 said:
If we came back within 1 year it wouldn’t be too much of an issue due to the parachute money. They can in on 4/5 players and invest some of that in players they think we need to help us get up.

The issue comes if they don’t come straight back up.
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Thinking about my comment further, what I mean by multi-year is the following:

1) We struggle as it is to get elite players and therefore struggle to get to our natural pecking order of 6th. We would have no chance of elite players on our return.

2) From the rest of the football universe, our hit rate of signing great players to those who need to be shown the door quickly is poor.

Right now, we could be top 4 as early as next season. The potential is there. In that cycle we talked about above, it just won't be that easy. I can't even imagine the cheeky bids we'd get for our players either.
 
Muttley said:
Thinking about my comment further, what I mean by multi-year is the following:

1) We struggle as it is to get elite players and therefore struggle to get to our natural pecking order of 6th. We would have no chance of elite players on our return.

2) From the rest of the football universe, our hit rate of signing great players to those who need to be shown the door quickly is poor.

Right now, we could be top 4 as early as next season. The potential is there. In that cycle we talked about above, it just won't be that easy. I can't even imagine the cheeky bids we'd get for our players either.
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Yeh. I think we are 4 good signings an a manager away from top 4 again. Doesn’t take much to turn it around. We need an interim to keep us up though.

Klinsmann with Hughton & Mason as his assistance.
 
Finney Is Back said:
I think some of you have forgotten about us having the highest level of debt of any team in England, perhaps even in Europe.

People on here laughed at me when I said I was extremely concerned about our worrying level of debt but if we go down we’ll have to have a huge fire sale of players to avoid going into administration. That fire sale of players will mean that we’ll be very unlikely to come back up and servicing our huge debt is impossible without PL football.

The only silver lining in this could be the owners being forced to sell the club at a discounted price and us getting new owners who run the club better.
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This. All of it. It's a MASSIVE thing.
 
Finney Is Back said:
I was concerned several weeks’ ago, long before we played West Ham. The performances a while ago were already bad and getting worse. I saw a manager who hadn’t developed a single way of progressing the ball or creating chances as well as a team who were getting worse and worse defensively, conceding goals even when having lots of players back. I actually think we’d be better without any manager at all than we are under Frank.
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I suspect some of the players would be happier!
 
Finney Is Back said:
I think some of you have forgotten about us having the highest level of debt of any team in England, perhaps even in Europe.

People on here laughed at me when I said I was extremely concerned about our worrying level of debt but if we go down we’ll have to have a huge fire sale of players to avoid going into administration. That fire sale of players will mean that we’ll be very unlikely to come back up and servicing our huge debt is impossible without PL football.

The only silver lining in this could be the owners being forced to sell the club at a discounted price and us getting new owners who run the club better.
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thfcsteff said:
This. All of it. It's a MASSIVE thing.
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This would just force them to sell if the club doesn’t come back up first time.
 
So relegation fire sale....

Vicario - £15m (Italian club)
Dragusin - £15m (Italian club)
Romero - £50m Spanish club
VDV - £55m (Liverpool)
Porro - £30m (top 6 PL club or Spainish club)
Udigie - £20m (Italian club)
Spence - £15m (PL club)
Bergval - £40m (Liverpool/Villa/Saudi Sportswashing Machine)
Bentancur - £15m (Italian club / midtable PL club)
Simmons - £40m (Brighton/Villa/West Ham/Dortmund)
Gallagher - £30m (Villa/West Ham/Brentford/Saudi Sportswashing Machine)
Solanke - £35m (Brighton/Villa/West Ham/Brentford)
Kulusevski - £35m (Emirates Marketing Project/Man Utd/Villa/Saudi Sportswashing Machine/Spain/Italy/Germany)
Richarlison - £20m (Everton)

That's perhaps enough income to keep us afloat for two years in the championship, though there's no way we get promoted in year one so year two would become incredibly important as I think a third year in the Championship would see us in administration, as the parachute payment has dropped, our ticket and match day revenue would be in the gutter and our sponsorship and corporate revenue would've tanked.

-------------------------Kinsky
?---------- ----- Danso------Vuskovic/Phillips--------Souza
--------------Gray-------------------Donley
------------------------Maddison
Odobert---------------Lankshear--------------------Tel

On paper that team doesn't look too awful but the backups would be kids. I think we'd have to hope that we could loan some players from some of the decent PL teams (hopefully we haven't tinkled too many off over the years with our transfer shennanighans. At best I think we scrape into the playoffs.
 
thfcsteff said:
I think it could be a lot uglier. That stadium debt...
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At this point the club will always be worth more than the debt. If they neglected the club to that degree that we were close to administration or bankruptcy, they would still sell because if those things happens they would lose control of the sale.

The debt is also structured in a way where we are paying a fairly nominal relative to the clubs revenues. We pay about £30M a year on typical revenues in the £500M. To put that into perspective it be like having a £5k a month and your mortgage payments is only £300.

Say what you want about Levy an ENIC, the way they financed the stadium is genuis and it only became a an issue if we were in league one for a decade.
 
Finney Is Back said:
So relegation fire sale....

Vicario - £15m (Italian club)
Dragusin - £15m (Italian club)
Romero - £50m Spanish club
VDV - £55m (Liverpool)
Porro - £30m (top 6 PL club or Spainish club)
Udigie - £20m (Italian club)
Spence - £15m (PL club)
Bergval - £40m (Liverpool/Villa/Saudi Sportswashing Machine)
Bentancur - £15m (Italian club / midtable PL club)
Simmons - £40m (Brighton/Villa/West Ham/Dortmund)
Gallagher - £30m (Villa/West Ham/Brentford/Saudi Sportswashing Machine)
Solanke - £35m (Brighton/Villa/West Ham/Brentford)
Kulusevski - £35m (Emirates Marketing Project/Man Utd/Villa/Saudi Sportswashing Machine/Spain/Italy/Germany)
Richarlison - £20m (Everton)

That's perhaps enough income to keep us afloat for two years in the championship, though there's no way we get promoted in year one so year two would become incredibly important as I think a third year in the Championship would see us in administration, as the parachute payment has dropped, our ticket and match day revenue would be in the gutter and our sponsorship and corporate revenue would've tanked.

-------------------------Kinsky
?---------- ----- Danso------Vuskovic/Phillips--------Souza
--------------Gray-------------------Donley
------------------------Maddison
Odobert---------------Lankshear--------------------Tel

On paper that team doesn't look too awful but the backups would be kids. I think we'd have to hope that we could loan some players from some of the decent PL teams (hopefully we haven't tinkled too many off over the years with our transfer shennanighans. At best I think we scrape into the playoffs.
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We wouldn’t need to go that crazy.

Vicario, Porro, Dragusin, Romero, VDV, Simons, Kudus, Richarlison. Thats at least £250M in transfer fees. Add in Bissouma, Davies and Palhinha of the booked and your saving another £50M in wages. £300M total which is what your losing in revenue.

Kinsky
Spence Danso Vuskovic Udogie
Gallagher Gray Maddison
Kulusevski Solenke Odobert

Austin
Byfield Phillips Takei Souza
Sarr Gray Bergvall
Yang Tel Moore

Lankshear & Devine also done well in the Championship this season. Donely has struggled.
 
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