From the stuff I’ve read today, I think they’re fudged.
They seemed to think that either these charges would go away, that they’d be able to appeal them away, or that some version of FFP wouldn’t exist and the chickens would never come home to roost. And of course that they wouldn’t get hacked.
This is different to the UEFA appeal because the CAS process was time barred and operates a higher legal standard, where as the PL operates more on balance of probabilities. The CAS judgement didn’t actually say City did nothing wrong, they still got fined for failing to comply, and it was more that the investigation was time barred and that emails suggesting money moves a certain way isn’t conclusive proof that it actually did.
If they had irrefutable evidence, they would have delivered it at any point while these charges were being investigated. They don’t have it. I think what has happened is that because they are a sportswashing project, their only option has been to deny, deny, deny. Because to admit to any one single fault of this effectively brings the whole argument crashing down. And this is about the reputation of a country. They could not admit to cheating in any way.
So they hoped the game would change, and that denial and failure to comply would run out the clock. It hasn’t worked and it’s actually contributing to the additional charges. They also kept going on as normal, spending huge amounts of money, signing big players on big wages, because they had to keep up the facade. Again, any admission of cheating would call into question the UAE reputation, make sponsors question their involvement, and give fans of the club and rival fans something to dig into. The strict denial was doing its job by creating the facade, and creating doubt in the case.
I think any appeal will be wrapped up relatively quickly and the punishment will be severe. Far be it from me to praise Chelsea, but there willingness to comply with an investigation has actually created the precedent there and put City in an even worse light. Heavy denial was a high risk bet that this would all fall away, but it’s going to end up making everything worse for them.