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*** The Official 26/27 Premier League Thread ***

Robbo said:
It's a(nother) crazy anomaly. Statistically we should've been awarded 6-7 penalties in that many matches, although playing style, etc. must also be taken into consideration. We've been poor going forward for quite a while.

Unsurprisingly that lot down the road tops the list with 10 away penalties aince our last one.
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Though I don't buy there's any conspiracy against us, it is a crazy stat. Between 2008-2023, we pretty consistently got penalties. Here's a list of pens/missed pens in domestic matches away from home: https://thfcdb.com/match-events?pag...tive__&competitionRange=domestic&homeOrAway=A
 
Not sure on the veracity of the stats but AI sourced so don't take as gospel.

Using touches in the opposition penalty area per 90 as a proxy for attacking [play/ability to be awarded a penalty due to being in the penalty box (so not perfect) and the average number of penalties per game over the 38 games of the 25-26 season the below came out.

Us and Villa are statistically anomalous having not had a penalty all of last season in the EPL. Villa actually a re a month further along on the league penalty drought!

Not including us and Villa the league average (minus Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland whose touches per 90 AI couldn't provide but Leeds had 8 and Sunderland 5 penalties whilst Burnley had 2) the average was a penalty awarded every 240 touches. Including us and Villa it is a penalty approximately every 325 so teams like Brentford, Palace and Chelsea getting more penalties than their field positioning would suggest, Everton, Liverpool (!) us and Villa being significantly behind the curve.


TeamTouches per Penalty
Brentford
94​
Crystal Palace113
Chelsea126
Wolverhampton Wanderers150
Fulham158
Bournemouth160
Saudi Sportswashing Machine165
Manchester United174
Brighton213
West Ham United256
Nottingham Forest277
Arsenal307
Emirates Marketing Project345
Everton447
Liverpool627
Tottenham Hotspur916
Aston Villa969


​

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Lost Mango said:
Not sure on the veracity of the stats but AI sourced so don't take as gospel.

Using touches in the opposition penalty area per 90 as a proxy for attacking [play/ability to be awarded a penalty due to being in the penalty box (so not perfect) and the average number of penalties per game over the 38 games of the 25-26 season the below came out.

Us and Villa are statistically anomalous having not had a penalty all of last season in the EPL. Villa actually a re a month further along on the league penalty drought!

Not including us and Villa the league average (minus Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland whose touches per 90 AI couldn't provide but Leeds had 8 and Sunderland 5 penalties whilst Burnley had 2) the average was a penalty awarded every 240 touches. Including us and Villa it is a penalty approximately every 325 so teams like Brentford, Palace and Chelsea getting more penalties than their field positioning would suggest, Everton, Liverpool (!) us and Villa being significantly behind the curve.


TeamTouches per Penalty
Brentford
94​
Crystal Palace113
Chelsea126
Wolverhampton Wanderers150
Fulham158
Bournemouth160
Saudi Sportswashing Machine165
Manchester United174
Brighton213
West Ham United256
Nottingham Forest277
Arsenal307
Emirates Marketing Project345
Everton447
Liverpool627
Tottenham Hotspur916
Aston Villa969


​

[/td]


​
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My AI "research" shows us having 1627 touches in the opposition box in the 60 away games since our last away game penalty. Statistically you are expected to get a penalty for every 203 touches or so.

On average we also had a 1,31xG and 11,9 shots in each of those 60 games.

The numbers alone doesn't paint the full picture, of course. We've been blunt in front of goal for a long, long time. But this is still a huge anomaly.
 
Lost Mango said:
@Robbo - my figure was an estimate for the 38 games (home and away) from last season, not since the penalty the season before, or since the last away penalty, hence being lower.
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Yeah, saw that - no critique of your numbers at all. I just remembered I had sent an AI prompt for more info on the away games, and wanted to share.

It would be interesting to see if there was any - or rather which - controversial penalty decisions we were subject to in these games as well.
 
Wonder how much they’ll get torn up in the media. They had fewer players out than we did and yet same score.

Brentford are excellent at home. Will have one of the best home records in the league come the end of the season. Andrews has done an incredible job there.
 
So Saka and Gabriel have bith thrown themselves on the floor after being slightly touched and the referee has waved play on, why not book the clams for diving and cut it out from happening again?
 
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