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Lucas Bergvall

Forest are one of maybe a dozen clubs globally that can afford to pay a decent fee for what we consider to be fringe players.

Most of the foreign clubs want to sign players from Prem teams on loan or cut price deals. The top 5 teams in the Prem won’t sign our cast offs. The teams below us want to sign young talent at a bargain price.

We shouldn’t be letting what happened last summer prevent us from doing business.

Like I said, not like we need the money anyway. We didn't go into this summer planning to sell Bergvall of Vuskovic, it just turned out that way. We have our valuation for clubs other than Forest, and we will hopefully have one for Forest that is 50% higher than the non-Forest one. If no one meets that price, Bergvall stays, and ends up home-grown and club-grown in a year.

Reputations matter. Being seen to be a doormat to Nottingham Forest by selling to them like nothing happened last summer has consequences in a business as irrational as football.

Levy got the half of it right - he was such a pain to buy players from that most clubs just stopped trying, to our benefit. But he was also a pain to sell to, which is the bit that ended up hurting us.

Keep part A (for clubs like Forest, anyway), drop Part B.
 
Like I said, not like we need the money anyway. We didn't go into this summer planning to sell Bergvall of Vuskovic, it just turned out that way. We have our valuation for clubs other than Forest, and we will hopefully have one for Forest that is 50% higher than the non-Forest one. If no one meets that price, Bergvall stays, and ends up home-grown and club-grown in a year.

Reputations matter. Being seen to be a doormat to Nottingham Forest by selling to them like nothing happened last summer has consequences in a business as irrational as football.

Levy got the half of it right - he was such a pain to buy players from that most clubs just stopped trying, to our benefit. But he was also a pain to sell to, which is the bit that ended up hurting us.

Keep part A (for clubs like Forest, anyway), drop Part B.

I don’t know if that’s strictly true with Bergvall. He’s not come to the conclusion that his minutes will be limited based on reading twitter rumors about Tonali.
 
The way the SCR rules work we would need a big profit on Danso to cash in.

Danso was bought for £21m and has been amortised for 18 months. So slightly less would still break even.

I assume what you're saying is not about the player himself but about the bigger transfer equation of the club. We have to derive player profit from somewhere to balance things right? That means Bergval, Sarr, Vuskovic, Phillips, Romero, Devine, Lankshear etc is where we find measurable profit. Even Vic is 3 years amortised on £17m so there could be profit there. Dragu is £21m so I don't believe we'll see much there.
 
Danso was bought for £21m and has been amortised for 18 months. So slightly less would still break even.

I assume what you're saying is not about the player himself but about the bigger transfer equation of the club. We have to derive player profit from somewhere to balance things right? That means Bergval, Sarr, Vuskovic, Phillips, Romero, Devine, Lankshear etc is where we find measurable profit. Even Vic is 3 years amortised on £17m so there could be profit there. Dragu is £21m so I don't believe we'll see much there.

Correct. If you look at the players we could potentially sell this summer. This is what you would need to deduct from any transfer fee we receive.

Based on transfer fee, time at the club and most recent contact extension.

Vicario - £6.9M
Spence - £5.6M
Udogie - £9.6M
Dragusin - £12.5M
Phillips - £0.8M
Romero - £10.6M
Danso - £16.0M
Vuskovic - £9.6M
Bentancur - £8.6M
Sarr - £5.6M
Bergvall - £8.6M
Gallagher - £27.2M
Devine - £0.02M
Maddison - £18.0M
Solomon - Zero
Richarlison - £12.0M
Solanke - £39.0M
Tel - £26.67M
Lankshear - £0.58M
 
Why would Danso not be worth 35-40mil after his performances for us and Austria? He' still only 27 so has a good 4-5 years left at the top level.

I think we could get £35M for him. But you would need to deduct about £16M from that based on what’s still on the books for him as he was a recent purchase. So it be +£19M.

If we got £50M for Vuskovic or Bergvall it’s going to be +£40M+ because their value has gone up so much.
 
I think we could get £35M for him. But you would need to deduct about £16M from that based on what’s still on the books for him as he was a recent purchase. So it be +£19M.

If we got £50M for Vuskovic or Bergvall it’s going to be +£40M+ because their value has gone up so much.
I get that. Just thought you were valuing him closer to his remaining paper cost, that's all.

Sell Bergvall and Romero and we'll break even on Fernandes. Vic, Sarr and Dragusin could bring another 70-odd mil to pay for a LW or AM.

Would Phillips count as Home Grown after next season?
 
I get that. Just thought you were valuing him closer to his remaining paper cost, that's all.

Sell Bergvall and Romero and we'll break even on Fernandes. Vic, Sarr and Dragusin could bring another 70-odd mil to pay for a LW or AM.

Would Phillips count as Home Grown after next season?

I think he would as all his loans have been in England. But I expect he is one the club moves on from.

At this point this is how the squad is starting to look for next season.

Goalkeepers
1st XI
- Kinsky
Backup/Youth - Dubravka, Austin

Full Backs
1st XI
- Porro, Spence, Udogie, Robertson
Backup/Youth
- Davies

Centre Backs
1st XI
- van de Ven, Danso, van Hecke, Senesi
Backup/Youth
- Byfield

Centre Midfielders
1st XI
- Fernandes, Bentancur, Gallager, Other (Tonali)
Backup/Youth
- Gray

Attacking Midfielders/Wingers
1st XI
- Kudus, Maddison, Other (Gakpo, Rashford, Savinho)
Backup/Youth - Tel, W.Barnett
Injured - Kulusevski, Odobert, Xavi

Fowards
1st XI
- Solanke, Other (Balagoun, Marmoush)
Backup/Youth - Lankshear

Loans Out
Gunter, Takei, Roswell, Souza, Abbot, Oluesi, Donely, Yang, Moore, Lankshear, Melia

Confirmed In
Dubravka - Free
Robertson - Free
van Hecke - £50M+
Sensesi - Free

Likely In
Fernandes - £85M

Targets
CDM - Tonali - £95M+
LWF - Gakpo, Rashford, Savinho £30-£60m
CF - Balagoun, Marmoush £50-£60m

Total Outgoings - £135M + Additional £190M = £325M

Players Sold - £200M+
Vicario £10M+, Dragusin £10M+, Romero £30M+, Vuskovic £50M+, Sarr £25M+, Bergvall £45M+, Richarlison £10M+
Phillips £5M+, Devine £5M+, Solomon £5M+, Veliz £5M+, Parrot % £5M+

Loans Out
Gunter, Takei, Roswell, Souza, Abbot, Oluesi, Donely, Yang, Moore, Lankshear, Melia

Released
Dorrington, Hall, Irow, Akamrich, Ajayi, Scarlett
 
This is a pretty good explanation of the new SCR, or squad cost ratio rules coming into effect for next season.


IMG_1405.png

What are red and green thresholds and the other new terms we’ll be hearing about?

That 85 per cent limit has another name, introduced in the new rules soon to inhabit the Premier League’s handbook: The ‘Green Threshold’.

At the beginning of each season, clubs and the Premier League will agree on estimated football revenues, from which their 85 per cent, Green Threshold spending limit will be derived.

A further limit (the ‘Red Threshold’) will be set at up to 30 per cent higher, so for each club in 2026-27 their Red Threshold will be 115 per cent. Clubs will be able to spend above their Green Threshold without incurring a sporting sanction, provided they do not exceed their Red Threshold. If they exceed the latter, a sporting punishment will follow.

If that sounds too simple, then don’t worry, they found a way to make it more complex.

If a club complies with their Green Threshold and returns a squad cost ratio of 85 per cent or lower, their Red Threshold will remain at 115 per cent. However, if a club exceeds the Green Threshold, they will see their Red Threshold reduced by the size of the excess. For example, if a club records a 90 per cent ratio in 2026-27, their 2027-28 Red Threshold would be 110 per cent.

The Premier League has termed this a Feedback Loop, and it is one which updates year-on-year. Ultimately, if a club consistently goes over their Green Threshold but does not exceed their Red Threshold, the latter will move ever closer to the 85 per cent mark. On the flipside, if a club exceeds the Green Threshold in one season but is later compliant, they have scope to build their Red Threshold back up to that 115 per cent maximum. In each season they are compliant, they increase their Red Threshold by 10 per cent, up to the 30 per cent overall maximum.

As an example, say a club records a 100 per cent SCR figure in 2026-27, or 15 per cent over their Green Threshold. That reduces their 2027-28 Red Threshold to 100 per cent.

In 2027-28, they record an SCR figure below 85 per cent, meaning they are compliant. As a result, their 2028-29 Red Threshold would be 110 per cent and further compliance that season would raise it to the 115 per cent maximum for 2029-30.

In explaining why clubs will be allowed to exceed the 85 per cent limit without sporting sanction, the Premier League said it “allows for clubs to invest ahead of revenue and reasonable variance or genuine sporting underperformance throughout the season”.

In essence, clubs not in Europe have been afforded extra leeway for longer-term spending on squads, albeit up to a reducing limit. No such differing thresholds are in place under UEFA’s PSR regime.
 
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