Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[Silly McSilly Face]

Well they didn’t just attack the Nuclear facilities did they? They also attacked rocket sites, airports and even a university I believe as well as assassinated serveral people including the person that was negotiating on the Nuclear deal. Is that legal in international law in your estimation? How about attacking a TV station that legal? And that’s before we get into what they are doing in Gaza

About the 9/11 intelligence that was ignored, what was that evidence? Because there was Evidence that was ignored about Oct the 7th.

Incidentally BIBI is supposed to have said something along the line of “9/11 is good for us” - this is someone you want to go to war for?

As for acting or not acting on Intelligence, again you are assuming that the Israeli intelligence is correct and trustworthy, there is plenty of evidence that it’s neither of those things.

Attacking the nuclear sites is the questionable bit in international law. The rocket sites and airports are legitimate targets because:
1) Israel has a right in international law to degrade Iran's ability to manufacture and supply weapons that are being used by e.g. Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israeli territory.
2) As Israel has a right to attack Iran's military infrastructure it also has a right to protect its military personnel in the carrying out of those attacks and that means its first wave of attacks were not about attacking Iran's military production capabilites but about establishing air supremacy by attacking Iran's air defences and radars and those include radars in civilian airports that can (and would be) easily repurposed for military use in the event that all military radars are taken out.
3) So initial strikes by F35s with stealth and electronic warfare capability have taken out all of the air defences and capability to launch intercepting fighter jets (yes, including from civilian airports) and that has led to a safe airspace for likes of F16s and F15s that are far more vulnerable to being shot down to conduct the primary military objectives.

And to repeat myself about the intelligence - what the west need to (and will be pondering) is not just an assessment of how reliable the Israeli intelligence is that Iran represents an imminent threat, but the consequences of not acting on that intelligence IF it is right. So the risk of the threat being real dictates the assessment of reliability required to take action, I.e.:

- if the Israelis are right assessment = we are fu**ed may dictate a View that we take action if we only have a 40% confidence in them actually bring right due to the potential consequences associated with incorrectly ignoring the threat.

And i am deeply familiar with these kind of risk assessments via a career thats taken me through law enforcement investigating serious and complex fraud, money laundering, electoral corruption, CSE, human trafficking and now into financial services where I work in risk management for a large multi national bank.

For example, if I have intelligence that theres a major drugs op out of a row of terraces on a street, background searches and further intelligence find theres a vulnerable elderly man living at the properties and young children....you do your operational orders and briefings. We are going to smash their doors down and we need to secure the premises and that includes a plan for specialist officers to deal with the old boy and the kids.

At the end of day I could smash the doors in, the old boy could have a heart attack and die and one of the kids could run into the road and get run over in the chaos and I could find no drugs and no cash and im suddenly in front of the IOPC trying to justify my actions....these are not easy decisions.....

....while its not quite as stressful, I've had to make decisions as to whether to close all of a customer's bank accounts due to reputational and financial crime risk assessments. Again, look at the fallout from NatWest exiting Farage to see how that could bite you if not done properly or correctly and the consequences for the person or business in having that done to them are huge....

 

[kb 1984]

Attacking the nuclear sites is the questionable bit in international law. The rocket sites and airports are legitimate targets because:
1) Israel has a right in international law to degrade Iran's ability to manufacture and supply weapons that are being used by e.g. Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israeli territory.
2) As Israel has a right to attack Iran's military infrastructure it also has a right to protect its military personnel in the carrying out of those attacks and that means its first wave of attacks were not about attacking Iran's military production capabilites but about establishing air supremacy by attacking Iran's air defences and radars and those include radars in civilian airports that can (and would be) easily repurposed for military use in the event that all military radars are taken out.
3) So initial strikes by F35s with stealth and electronic warfare capability have taken out all of the air defences and capability to launch intercepting fighter jets (yes, including from civilian airports) and that has led to a safe airspace for likes of F16s and F15s that are far more vulnerable to being shot down to conduct the primary military objectives.

And to repeat myself about the intelligence - what the west need to (and will be pondering) is not just an assessment of how reliable the Israeli intelligence is that Iran represents an imminent threat, but the consequences of not acting on that intelligence IF it is right. So the risk of the threat being real dictates the assessment of reliability required to take action, I.e.:

- if the Israelis are right assessment = we are fu**ed may dictate a View that we take action if we only have a 40% confidence in them actually bring right due to the potential consequences associated with incorrectly ignoring the threat.

And i am deeply familiar with these kind of risk assessments via a career thats taken me through law enforcement investigating serious and complex fraud, money laundering, electoral corruption, CSE, human trafficking and now into financial services where I work in risk management for a large multi national bank.

For example, if I have intelligence that theres a major drugs op out of a row of terraces on a street, background searches and further intelligence find theres a vulnerable elderly man living at the properties and young children....you do your operational orders and briefings. We are going to smash their doors down and we need to secure the premises and that includes a plan for specialist officers to deal with the old boy and the kids.

At the end of day I could smash the doors in, the old boy could have a heart attack and die and one of the kids could run into the road and get run over in the chaos and I could find no drugs and no cash and im suddenly in front of the IOPC trying to justify my actions....these are not easy decisions.....

....while its not quite as stressful, I've had to make decisions as to whether to close all of a customer's bank accounts due to reputational and financial crime risk assessments. Again, look at the fallout from NatWest exiting Farage to see how that could bite you if not done properly or correctly and the consequences for the person or business in having that done to them are huge....

That's great once you have started bombing iran but the justification for starting the war was nuclear weapons. Depending on who you believe they either do have them or they don't. I don't believe you start bombing countries when they are negotiationing with the US unless you want to start a war

As for intelligence I wouldn't trust anything Benjamin Netanyahu says regarding Iran he wants regime change. Be careful what you wish for

Don't envy your job sounds way to stressful. If you want an easier job I am sure the Israelis could do with a good lawyer

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

IMO he wants to etch his name into the history books, have seen this kind of leadership all too many times

I think this is the wider problem at the moment. A small group of men deciding the fate of millions, and for what, some gonads spinning round in their heads.

 

[Grays_1890]

I think this is the wider problem at the moment. A small group of men deciding the fate of millions, and for what, some gonads spinning round in their heads.

Exactly, Its also just a battle of the egos, not saying it wasn't not that before, but there was a semblance of status quo for a few years, no utopia, but this mess is just starting to look ridiculous.

Imaging having the next two weeks sitting on the shoulders of Donald fudging Trump given the garbage that cnut comes out with

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Exactly, Its also just a battle of the egos, not saying it wasn't not that before, but there was a semblance of status quo for a few years, no utopia, but this mess is just starting to look ridiculous.

Imaging having the next two weeks sitting on the shoulders of Donald fudging Trump given the garbage that cnut comes out with

No one can tell me that if the 4 'leaders' (you can guess who/or choose four) were to be amongst those unfortunate enough to lose their lives next week.....there wouldn't be a massive exhale of relief around the world.

 

[Grays_1890]

No one can tell me that if the 4 'leaders' (you can guess who/or choose four) were to be amongst those unfortunate enough to lose their lives next week.....there wouldn't be a massive exhale of relief around the world.

Mate absolutely, worlds being run into the ground, so much so that people are seeking refuge with the likes of Farage and Yaxley

 

[Grays_1890]

The conspiracy about the actress with the Labour visit must have lit up the "Truthseekers" WhatsApp group today

 

[DTA]

Attacking the nuclear sites is the questionable bit in international law. The rocket sites and airports are legitimate targets because:
1) Israel has a right in international law to degrade Iran's ability to manufacture and supply weapons that are being used by e.g. Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israeli territory.
2) As Israel has a right to attack Iran's military infrastructure it also has a right to protect its military personnel in the carrying out of those attacks and that means its first wave of attacks were not about attacking Iran's military production capabilites but about establishing air supremacy by attacking Iran's air defences and radars and those include radars in civilian airports that can (and would be) easily repurposed for military use in the event that all military radars are taken out.
3) So initial strikes by F35s with stealth and electronic warfare capability have taken out all of the air defences and capability to launch intercepting fighter jets (yes, including from civilian airports) and that has led to a safe airspace for likes of F16s and F15s that are far more vulnerable to being shot down to conduct the primary military objectives.

And to repeat myself about the intelligence - what the west need to (and will be pondering) is not just an assessment of how reliable the Israeli intelligence is that Iran represents an imminent threat, but the consequences of not acting on that intelligence IF it is right. So the risk of the threat being real dictates the assessment of reliability required to take action, I.e.:

- if the Israelis are right assessment = we are fu**ed may dictate a View that we take action if we only have a 40% confidence in them actually bring right due to the potential consequences associated with incorrectly ignoring the threat.

And i am deeply familiar with these kind of risk assessments via a career thats taken me through law enforcement investigating serious and complex fraud, money laundering, electoral corruption, CSE, human trafficking and now into financial services where I work in risk management for a large multi national bank.

For example, if I have intelligence that theres a major drugs op out of a row of terraces on a street, background searches and further intelligence find theres a vulnerable elderly man living at the properties and young children....you do your operational orders and briefings. We are going to smash their doors down and we need to secure the premises and that includes a plan for specialist officers to deal with the old boy and the kids.

At the end of day I could smash the doors in, the old boy could have a heart attack and die and one of the kids could run into the road and get run over in the chaos and I could find no drugs and no cash and im suddenly in front of the IOPC trying to justify my actions....these are not easy decisions.....

....while its not quite as stressful, I've had to make decisions as to whether to close all of a customer's bank accounts due to reputational and financial crime risk assessments. Again, look at the fallout from NatWest exiting Farage to see how that could bite you if not done properly or correctly and the consequences for the person or business in having that done to them are huge....

Bruv what are you talking about?

There is no doubt that Iran funds groups that are hostile to Israel . But you do realise that Israel does the same to Iran, with groups actually within Irans borders, you do get that don’t you?


1) you missed out the attack on universities, TV stations and the targeted assassinations of amongst others university lecturers.

Not that I agree that Israel had the legal right to attack Iran in any capicity anyway. Most legal experts seem to be agreeing with me not you.

2) it hasn’t legally got the right. This is BIBI keeping himself out of prison while potentially starting world war 3.

They wanted the war. Let them deal with it.

Ideally I would just want the killing to stop on both sides, but if not, you shít the bed. You deal with it. It’s nothing to do with us.

3) again, the attack is not legal so...

As for intelligence assessment of risk, do these risks apply to Israel as well? What if they deemed a malevolent actor and are making the world more unsafe. Should the west attack them?

Also the whole idea of, if Iran had Nuclear weapons then it could get into the hands of terrorists is such a bullshït arguement.

Iran has many Military assets now that are not in the hand of terrorists. But if they get the bomb… they are all of a sudden going to be handing it out to your local Isis nut job like seeeties … how dumb do you think we are?

Now I’m not going to spend too much more time on this. Because well… it’s not going to make any difference at all to anything.

I just hope we don’t get involved in anything,

But if we do. I hope you will welcome with open arms the millions of Iranian Refugees that will “flood” our country. While also paying more in taxes and receiving less services for the cost of another •NOT OUR WAR*

The last set of Middle Eastern wars cost something in the region of 2 or 3 trillion (or was that just what the US spent). Imagine what we could have built instead with that money.

 

[Grays_1890]

But if we do. I hope you will welcome with open arms the millions of Iranian Refugees that will “flood” our country. While also paying more in taxes and receiving less services for the cost of another •NOT OUR WAR*

A point often lost, there is no coincidence that the drive of refugee came in the last 20 years post Iraqi and Afghanistan wars. We cause the same issue in Iran and there will be more and those that are afraid of people that don't look the same will be straight on their soap boxes.

Some people are Turkeys praying for Christmas with this stuff

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

That's great once you have started bombing iran but the justification for starting the war was nuclear weapons. Depending on who you believe they either do have them or they don't. I don't believe you start bombing countries when they are negotiationing with the US unless you want to start a war

As for intelligence I wouldn't trust anything Benjamin Netanyahu says regarding Iran he wants regime change. Be careful what you wish for

Don't envy your job sounds way to stressful. If you want an easier job I am sure the Israelis could do with a good lawyer

Was the justification nuclear weapons? Israel have been striking Iran and their proxies for months to degrade capabilities. This is merely an escalation in that activity.

 

[Lost Mango]

Attacking the nuclear sites is the questionable bit in international law. The rocket sites and airports are legitimate targets because:
1) Israel has a right in international law to degrade Iran's ability to manufacture and supply weapons that are being used by e.g. Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israeli territory.
2) As Israel has a right to attack Iran's military infrastructure it also has a right to protect its military personnel in the carrying out of those attacks and that means its first wave of attacks were not about attacking Iran's military production capabilites but about establishing air supremacy by attacking Iran's air defences and radars and those include radars in civilian airports that can (and would be) easily repurposed for military use in the event that all military radars are taken out.
3) So initial strikes by F35s with stealth and electronic warfare capability have taken out all of the air defences and capability to launch intercepting fighter jets (yes, including from civilian airports) and that has led to a safe airspace for likes of F16s and F15s that are far more vulnerable to being shot down to conduct the primary military objectives.

And to repeat myself about the intelligence - what the west need to (and will be pondering) is not just an assessment of how reliable the Israeli intelligence is that Iran represents an imminent threat, but the consequences of not acting on that intelligence IF it is right. So the risk of the threat being real dictates the assessment of reliability required to take action, I.e.:

- if the Israelis are right assessment = we are fu**ed may dictate a View that we take action if we only have a 40% confidence in them actually bring right due to the potential consequences associated with incorrectly ignoring the threat.

And i am deeply familiar with these kind of risk assessments via a career thats taken me through law enforcement investigating serious and complex fraud, money laundering, electoral corruption, CSE, human trafficking and now into financial services where I work in risk management for a large multi national bank.

For example, if I have intelligence that theres a major drugs op out of a row of terraces on a street, background searches and further intelligence find theres a vulnerable elderly man living at the properties and young children....you do your operational orders and briefings. We are going to smash their doors down and we need to secure the premises and that includes a plan for specialist officers to deal with the old boy and the kids.

At the end of day I could smash the doors in, the old boy could have a heart attack and die and one of the kids could run into the road and get run over in the chaos and I could find no drugs and no cash and im suddenly in front of the IOPC trying to justify my actions....these are not easy decisions.....

....while its not quite as stressful, I've had to make decisions as to whether to close all of a customer's bank accounts due to reputational and financial crime risk assessments. Again, look at the fallout from NatWest exiting Farage to see how that could bite you if not done properly or correctly and the consequences for the person or business in having that done to them are huge....

Accepting your position (obviously) that Iran is providing the weapons so is a legitimate target, why now rather than any time in the last 3 decades? The risk from conventional weapons hasn't changed so does that factor in to the legitimacy? There is no new greater threat.

Basically taking a PR (and legitimacy) kicking over Gaza and the West Bank with an international conference coming up to either recognise a two state solution or actually recognise Palestine as an entity so now seems a perfect time to try and be the 'good' guys over Iran and try and draw attention and support which can only be meaningfully accepted if those states don't recognise Palestine. Iran and 100s or 000s of people are just collateral in Bibi's epic bid to stay out of jail.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Bruv what are you talking about?

There is no doubt that Iran funds groups that are hostile to Israel . But you do realise that Israel does the same to Iran, with groups actually within Irans borders, you do get that don’t you?


1) you missed out the attack on universities, TV stations and the targeted assassinations of amongst others university lecturers.

Not that I agree that Israel had the legal right to attack Iran in any capicity anyway. Most legal experts seem to be agreeing with me not you.

2) it hasn’t legally got the right. This is BIBI keeping himself out of prison while potentially starting world war 3.

They wanted the war. Let them deal with it.

Ideally I would just want the killing to stop on both sides, but if not, you shít the bed. You deal with it. It’s nothing to do with us.

3) again, the attack is not legal so...

As for intelligence assessment of risk, do these risks apply to Israel as well? What if they deemed a malevolent actor and are making the world more unsafe. Should the west attack them?

Also the whole idea of, if Iran had Nuclear weapons then it could get into the hands of terrorists is such a bullshït arguement.

Iran has many Military assets now that are not in the hand of terrorists. But if they get the bomb… they are all of a sudden going to be handing it out to your local Isis nut job like seeeties … how dumb do you think we are?

Now I’m not going to spend too much more time on this. Because well… it’s not going to make any difference at all to anything.

I just hope we don’t get involved in anything,

But if we do. I hope you will welcome with open arms the millions of Iranian Refugees that will “flood” our country. While also paying more in taxes and receiving less services for the cost of another •NOT OUR WAR*

The last set of Middle Eastern wars cost something in the region of 2 or 3 trillion (or was that just what the US spent). Imagine what we could have built instead with that money.

There you go. Crucially, not just fund, but equip. And that equipment has been fired at Israel at an almost weekly basis. Have you ever been to Israel? Israel has been given funding for the iron dome and other sophisticated defences and been told to stand down from retaliating for years as rockets and missiles rain down on them from Gaza and Lebanon. The 7th October happened, hundreds of civilians not just killed, but raped, tortured, beheaded, captured and paraded. Women, children, babies. And Israel said, enough is enough and we can only be safe if we destroy Hamas, destroy Hezbollah and seriously weaken or destroy the main power behind them. Ive spent time in Israel. 10 years ago, air raid sirens are just a fact of life there. You get used to it.

So maybe you would like to live somewhere where you have to be prepared to run to shelter at a moments notice because the next door neighbours, are firing rockets at you again, before you get on your soap box and try and pretend that there isn't any justification behind what Israel is doing. The proportionality of any response is what is being questioned by some legal minds, not that Israel isn't within its right to use force.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Accepting your position (obviously) that Iran is providing the weapons so is a legitimate target, why now rather than any time in the last 3 decades? The risk from conventional weapons hasn't changed so does that factor in to the legitimacy? There is no new greater threat.

Basically taking a PR (and legitimacy) kicking over Gaza and the West Bank with an international conference coming up to either recognise a two state solution or actually recognise Palestine as an entity so now seems a perfect time to try and be the 'good' guys over Iran and try and draw attention and support which can only be meaningfully accepted if those states don't recognise Palestine. Iran and 100s or 000s of people are just collateral in Bibi's epic bid to stay out of jail.

Because of 7th October. Hamas and Hezbollah clearly demonstrated a capability beyond that which was assessed, to breach Israel's intelligence and security and carry out a devastating and successful attack on Israel. So that basically changed the equation. Israel's allies have been urging Israel to show restraint: "you've got the iron dome, you have rings of other air defences, Hamas and Hezbollah cant hurt you, let them fire rockets and missiles at you, you dont need to do anything". That equation changed and the US and European allies all acknowledge it has changed. Although many believe Israel's response has gone too far. And I do think that a lot of that is about it being "pay back time" i.e. Israel pretty much got the green light to conduct some form of military operation in gaza, Lebanon and possibly against Iran, but unfortunately 30 years of pent up anger, frustration and desire for revenge have gone into the planning and execution and I think its fair to say things are in danger of spiralling out of control....

 

[Lost Mango]

Because of 7th October. Hamas and Hezbollah clearly demonstrated a capability beyond that which was assessed, to breach Israel's intelligence and security and carry out a devastating and successful attack on Israel. So that basically changed the equation. Israel's allies have been urging Israel to show restraint: "you've got the iron dome, you have rings of other air defences, Hamas and Hezbollah cant hurt you, let them fire rockets and missiles at you, you dont need to do anything". That equation changed and the US and European allies all acknowledge it has changed. Although many believe Israel's response has gone too far. And I do think that a lot of that is about it being "pay back time" i.e. Israel pretty much got the green light to conduct some form of military operation in gaza, Lebanon and possibly against Iran, but unfortunately 30 years of pent up anger, frustration and desire for revenge have gone into the planning and execution and I think its fair to say things are in danger of spiralling out of control....

Oct 7th was 18 months ago.

Pay back time?

Israel has been paying back with interest for decades through asymmetrical warfare.

 

[Lilbaz]

Oct 7th was 18 months ago.

Ishmael and isaac was thousands of years ago.
We have millennia of grievances and atrocities.
Trying to keep score is pointless.

 

[DTA]

There you go. Crucially, not just fund, but equip. And that equipment has been fired at Israel at an almost weekly basis. Have you ever been to Israel? Israel has been given funding for the iron dome and other sophisticated defences and been told to stand down from retaliating for years as rockets and missiles rain down on them from Gaza and Lebanon. The 7th October happened, hundreds of civilians not just killed, but raped, tortured, beheaded, captured and paraded. Women, children, babies. And Israel said, enough is enough and we can only be safe if we destroy Hamas, destroy Hezbollah and seriously weaken or destroy the main power behind them. Ive spent time in Israel. 10 years ago, air raid sirens are just a fact of life there. You get used to it.

So maybe you would like to live somewhere where you have to be prepared to run to shelter at a moments notice because the next door neighbours, are firing rockets at you again, before you get on your soap box and try and pretend that there isn't any justification behind what Israel is doing. The proportionality of any response is what is being questioned by some legal minds, not that Israel isn't within its right to use force.

And Israel is completely innocent in all this is it?

Even if you want to claim what’s happening in Gaza is justified, (killing kids and at the very least ethnically cleansing a population is never justified no matter who is doing it) but even if you want to claim that.

Then what’s going on in the West Bank? How is that justified?

So you are simultaneously claiming on the one hand that:

Israel’s security service messed up the assessment of Hamas’ capabilities (in an area they for all extents and purposes control) despite being warned by Egypt among other.

But at the same time are completely accurate in their assessment of Iran’s Nuclear threat. Even though the rest of world don’t think they are… and BIBI had been wrong about it since 1992.

Have I been to Israel? no, I have no great desire to either to be honest. Just like I have no desire to go to Iran or Saudi Arabia. Don’t like the government of any of those places -

Israel attacked Iran Im pretty sure as part of Bibi’s plan to stay out of prison.

You started it, it’s your war not ours, not America’s either.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

And Israel is completely innocent in all this is it?

Even if you want to claim what’s happening in Gaza is justified, (killing kids and at the very least ethnically cleansing a population is never justified no matter who is doing it) but even if you want to claim that.

Then what’s going on in the West Bank? How is that justified?

So you are simultaneously claiming on the one hand that:

Israel’s security service messed up the assessment of Hamas’ capabilities (in an area they for all extents and purposes control) despite being warned by Egypt among other.

But at the same time are completely accurate in their assessment of Iran’s Nuclear threat. Even though the rest of world don’t think they are… and BIBI had been wrong about it since 1992.

Have I been to Israel? no, I have no great desire to either to be honest. Just like I have no desire to go to Iran or Saudi Arabia. Don’t like the government of any of those places -

Israel attacked Iran Im pretty sure as part of Bibi’s plan to stay out of prison.

You started it, it’s your war not ours, not America’s either.

I started it? It's my war? What's that supposed to mean? Show me where I claimed Israel is completely accurate in their assessment of Iran's nuclear threat? You're reaching there.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Oct 7th was 18 months ago.

Pay back time?

Israel has been paying back with interest for decades through asymmetrical warfare.

This is part of a continued and escalating military operation against Iran and its proxies that has been ongoing since then....

 

[Grays_1890]

I have this sudden urge to watch Argo

 

[spurspinter1]

Send him baaa............oh wait

https://twitter.com/x/status/1935964140973047987

You wonder if this was a direct influence on Adolescence. An absolute must watch even if it isn't a pleasant one...