Wall of text incoming
I'm going to take my post in a different direction as I think we may need to consider whether or not Poch favours a back 3 or back 4. A lot of what we are considering is based around the assumption that we are going to stick with a 4231, but there have been whispers over this year (I can't remember the sources) that a back 3 is still in Poch's plans.
Although rumours, the fact that we went back to using a back 3 against West Brom might prove that there is no smoke without fire. This game actually got me thinking as we saw Eriksen playing as one of the two CM's in this game, something that in the latter system we had not seen, with Dembele, Dier and Wanyama occupying the midfield two.
The question I'm throwing down here is whether or not the idea has legs. We were poor in the system against West Brom, but weren't much better in the 4231 against Saudi Sportswashing Machine either. There have been highlights too, the Madrid games and Liverpool at home were great examples of the system working out, but we have also seen great results in both a 4231 and 433 (thinking of the second half against Chelsea (A)).
Keeping with the idea that a 343 is the primary plan, what do we need to consider before jumping into the transfer market?
The makeup of the midfield
Winks was impressive early in the season as the central point of the midfield. Having a creative player in one of those spots in front of the defence makes a difference, Poch using Eriksen there against West Brom could indicate a similar line of thought. Do we need a creative player sitting deeper alongside a holder? How about two box to box midfielders working in a pivot or maybe even two dictators like Winks and Eriksen?
The combinations are multiple and to be honest would likely be the result of who we are playing against. What is certain is that for a lot of games, we will likely see Eriksen and Winks share a role. This is not a slight on Winks, in fact there
could be games where the pair could play together, but for the most part I get the feeling that a more solid CM would be preferred alongside the creator.
Dele in the front 3 or the midfield
Dele has shown that his anticipation and movement are his biggest strengths. One of his best performances was the away game at Chelsea, where in the second half he occupied the LWF position. He would play more like the Dele of last season (2016/2017), making late runs into the box and making the most of the space that Kane will create.
On the other hand, moving him back into CM would allow for Poch to field an even more aggressive lineup with Son and Moura working alongside Kane. In some games, having the pure pace of those players pinning back the opposition back 4 would be prefferable.
The front 3
Kane, Son and Moura are three players that we will likely see next year. There are questions over whether or not Lamela will be here next year. With interest from Italy and only two years left on his contract, we may cash in and re-invest elsewhere.
Llorente and Janssen are both likely to leave, although keeping the big Spaniard could still be beneficial for when we need a plan B or C, he's now third choice behind Kane and Son.
Conservatively speaking, I expect Dele to be player number 4 in this lineup so who are 5 and 6?
Martial, would be ideal as he does have the ability to both play in the place of Kane or Son. Son can in turn play across the front 3 whilst Dele and Moura can cover LWF and RWF respectively. Other names have been listed as potential targets; Zaha, Pulisic, Baily, Malcom and Bale are all names that have been linked with us since January. With just one one of these players purchased we could leave the 6th spot open for youth development.
The Defence
If we do lose Alderweireld this summer as expected, do we bring in a replacement or work with what we have? Foyth has been great as a backup and possesses the calmness and footballing ability required to play in the system. Davies and Dier are both capable of dropping in and CCV may be kept around next season. Theoretically that leaves us with 4 CB's and 2 others that can rotate in if required.
The strong rumours linking us with Sessegnon coupled with Danny Rose seemingly deciding to stay with Spurs, could lead to Davies rotating through LB as well as LCB.
If we do purchase an Alderweireld replacement, what calibre of player do we get? An experienced CB, who can rotate in but won't object to spending time benched whilst Foyth and/or CCV get game time or a guaranteed starter? Personally I prefer the latter, but only Poch will know how close Foyth and CCV are to being first team ready.
Sales
Alderweireld - Not out of choice, but the situation we are now in pretty much necessitates a sale.
Sissoko - He has been useful at times this year, but I would not be suprised to see him sold.
Dembele - The stories floating around sound like he wants a longer contract than we are willing to offer. I'd prefer to see him kept in, but would not be suprised to see him let go.
Wanyama - In the system I am considering, there may not be enough games for both defensive midfielders to get all the minutes they would want. A lot might hinge on the CB situation and whether or not Dier becomes a certainty in midfield or spends more time rotating into defence.
Jannsen
Llorente
Lamela
Purchases
Sessegnon
A new attacker for the front 3
A new box to box CM
? A replacement CB of some description.
