Villa have been playing a 3-5-2 formation in recent weeks. The antidote for a 3-5-2 is a 4-3-3, which is what we should play. In a 3-5-2, if the wing-backs don't push forward then your attacking play is very narrow and can be quite easy to defend against if you don't have serious flair players up front. If the wing-backs DO push forward, then the opposition has wing forwards who will be in behind the wing-backs with no covering full-back to intercept them. If the opposition has good passers in the side then giving the ball away in a 3-5-2 against a 4-3-3 can be suicidal, and against Chelsea, Villa kept giving the ball away to a 4-3-3 playing side. They got absolutely raped.
If we can get an early goal against a young Villa side on the back of an 8-0 thrashing, who's captain is out injured, heads will start to drop.
But you can also be certain that Villa will come out on the attack, with a point to prove in front of their own fans. We need to be prepared to deal with early pressure from them today, but assuming we hold the fort, this won't be a bad thing. Because once they start to get encouraged and commit men forward, that's when the gaps will open up. And that's when we will have the pace of Lennon and Bale on the wings to be picked out by Sigurdsson.
Agbonlahor may or may not be fit, his pace would worry me against Vertonghen, so I'd play Naughton at LB and move Jan into the centre to mark his mate Benteke that he knows well. This not only has him in his best position, but also means we've got a quicker full-back to help with our own counter attacks. The other question is who plays at the centre of the attack. Defoe has started all but four of our games in all competitions this season and has played the full 90 in most of them. He needs a rest and we have a tricky game against a Sunderland side who will play with a defensive set up in a few days time, that's the sort of game where you need someone who can finish.
For today's game, I would prefer Adebayor to lead the line, as we are away from home and his hold up play will prevent too much pressure coming from the opposition. I also feel he will bring Sigurdsson into play in the final third more, which is where Gylfi will flourish. It will make a big difference for us having a player who can score goals and be a creative threat coming from the centre as opposed to only the wings, which is what has made us quite predictable recently.
If Agbonlahor IS fit, they might go 4-3-3. I'd still go for the same starting XI, the focus would then be about movement and swapping positions. That means Dembele, Sigurdsson, Sandro and of course our forwards need to be dynamic and on the move, part of the reason why I prefer Adebayor to Defoe in this game as he does this naturally. If they go 4-4-2, that's also fine by me as we can out number them in the centre of the pitch. So my starting lineup in a 4-3-3 will be:
Lloris
Walker
Dawson
Vertonghen
Naughton
Sandro
Dembele
Sigurdsson
Lennon
Adebayor
Bale
Subs depend on how the game is going and how Villa are changing, so I'm not sure it's appropriate to go into any great detail on them. I'd like to see Assou-Ekotto get a run out if possible, I'm sure Parker and Defoe will play though.
Villa away on Boxing Day. The scene and date of one of the finest 10 man performances and Tottenham goals I can remember
http://www.soccerclips.net/videos/aston-villa-0-2-tottenham-van-der-vaart1