Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach
Thanks for that.
Unfortunately you're banging the same drum I've long tired of banging. Unfortunately many fans still think that matches are entirely controllable, random events don't happen and (my favourite) it will even itself out in a season.
Something that has quite surprised me: I have just finished looking back at the stats of our PL games this season, trying to identify where we have been "lucky" or "unlucky".*
Now obviously, stats don't tell you much about a game but from the shots both teams had, each team would have expected to score 1.7- - i.e. the draw was the "fair" result.
The other interesting thing is that the Saudi Sportswashing Machine game is pretty much the point at which we stopped being lucky. Under AVB we picked up 1 "luck point" overall (Arsenal and Hull expected draws, should have beaten Saudi Sportswashing Machine, should have lost to Fulham). In Tim's first 10 games we gained an extra 11 luck points (Southampton, Palace, Man U, Everton and Saudi Sportswashing Machine are expected draws; WBA @ WHL expected loss) and since then we are -2 for luck (Norwich and Arsenal were expected draws)
So in fact, you could say that Tim's luck has run out.
* I've done this by looking at the shots on target for and against and their location - 6 yd box, the so-called prime shot zone, and other. The reason for this is that a shot on target in the 6yd zone has about a 70% chance of scoring (apparently), the prime zone about 40% and other zones 5-10%. Something like that anyway.
Thanks for that.
Unfortunately you're banging the same drum I've long tired of banging. Unfortunately many fans still think that matches are entirely controllable, random events don't happen and (my favourite) it will even itself out in a season.