Assuming we dont sell anyone significant between now and the end of the window, I expect us to be in the mix for 4th, and put our chances of a top 4 at 50/50. Reason being:
- Despite their unattractive football, Man U finished above us last season and have added Fred who should add some much needed creativity to their midfield plus have Sanchez from the start of this season. All else equal, its rational therefore to expect them to finish above us
- Liverpool have had the best window adding some quality. Still some flaws in their squad and I dont buy into the hype that they'll be challenging for the title, but us and them were very close last season but I expect they'll be ahead of us come next May given events of the last few weeks. Not miles ahead, 5-10 points perhaps
- Cheatski are difficult to predict. Its unclear how much the feuding between Conte and the board impacted them last year but equally always unpredictable how a new quickly manager will settle. There is upside potential in their squad compared to recent seasons given that players like Fabregas have seemed more interested in picking up their £200k per week rather than achieving anything so if Sarri gets him playing it will be like a new signing. Jorginho and Kovacic are really good signings strengthen their midfield a lot whilst they're retained Willian and Hazard. Courtois is obviously a loss
- Arse also have the new manager unknown factor, though at least they got him in early but their signings are underwhelming and I'd like to therefore think that we should still finish a bit above them this year
- Everton has strengthened well but have a lot of players to integrate and probably need a couple more seasons before really challenging top 6.
So I think its between us and Cheatski for 4th, hence saying its 50/50 whether we finish top 4. Clearly we could outperform and finish higher, but equally we could underperform or Arsenal perform better than expected and therefore 6th is equally a possibility. We've had 3 consecutive poor to average summer transfer windows and eventually that has to catch up with you. My biggest fear though is next summer and the number of important players on short-term contracts which might leave and then need replacing.
Cups are impossible to predict, but expect that we'll challenge just like the other top 6 will do, and really comes down to the draws and one-off performances in games against other top 6 teams when we get drawn together. We're due a trophy soon though...
While I dont agree with all of your assumptions I think its fair.
Id say a good chance of top 4, and go well in the cups. Impossible to say anything more because its a lottery.
I dont think Man U will be stronger this year (and still dont understand how they finished above us last year!). Their defence is still poor, and despite Fred coming in/Sanchez settling - Mourinho is going through the gears in sucking the life out of them and alienating players. I feel his poison will sap the life out of that team. Of course, theyll still get results and be in the mix, but better than last year? Not for me.
Liverpool look like they should be stronger. Much depends on their new buys being as good as people assume (and we know about assumptions), and Salah being incredible again (will he?). I fully expect them in the mix.
Chelsea - simply, who knows?! Looks like a first class midfield, but a poor defence, misfiring striker and new manager to settle. Even if he gets them in good shape will it be early enough in the season to really mount a challenge?
Arsenal - same again for the most part. Except they have a great front line, poor midfield and defence. Like Liverpool a number of buys to settle, and new manager of course.
I think, personally, our general quality and stability should be a major advantage and think we should be expecting a strong run at top 4.
If we can get a good start, that would set us up for it IMO.
