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The Run-in...

We've experienced frustration against sides which set up to stifle us this season - which i see those sides attempting to do, not to mention we have already lost to Leicester at home this year.

It was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment though as they are clearly the 'easier' games on paper -
 
Our form is still incredibly good at the moment and the team are now onto one game a weeks which will almost be a new refreshing experience for the team

We have mainly away games too which still seems to suit us (although we have clearly fixed out home form)

If I was predicting it would be 1 loss, 2 draws and 7 wins. Based on our current t form that doable but you never know This season
 
I've divided the games into three categories to try and estimate difficulty of schedule: Difficult, games against top two or contenders; Tricky, mainly away games against top half clubs; and Should expect to win.


SPURS
DIFFICULT (2): Man Utd (a), Emirates Marketing Project (h)
TRICKY (4): Southampton (a), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (a), Stoke (a), Everton (a)
SHOULD WIN (4): Leicester (h), Burnley (a), Villa (h), Hull (h)

SOUTHAMPTON
DIFFICULT (2): Chelsea (a), City (a)
TRICKY (4): Everton (a), Stoke (a), Tottenham (h), Sunderland (a)
SHOULD WIN (4): Burnley (h), Leicester (a), Hull (h), Villa (h)

ARSENAL
DIFFICULT (3): Liverpool (h), Man United (a), Chelsea (h)
TRICKY (1): Saudi Sportswashing Machine (a)
SHOULD WIN (6): West Ham (h), Burnley (a), Sunderland (h), Hull (a), Swansea (h), West Brom (h)

I think we have a similar schedule to Southampton: two very hard games and four that we have to be winning to get top four with four others that are hard but winnable. We should expect to stay ahead of Southampton, especially if we don't lose at St Mary's.

Arsenal have six expect to win games and they have the experience of doing so at this time of the season. They have one more very difficult game, but three less tricky games. We'd be doing well to keep the gap the same. I don't rate our chances of gaining five points on them with these games. I think we'd best hope they do use favours against Liverpool and United.

I'll put United and Liverpool in the next post.
 
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Now Liverpool and United:

SPURS 50
DIFFICULT (2): Man Utd (a), Emirates Marketing Project (h)
TRICKY (4): Southampton (a), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (a), Stoke (a), Everton (a)
SHOULD WIN (4): Leicester (h), Burnley (a), Villa (h), Hull (h)

LIVERPOOL 51
DIFFICULT (3): Chelsea (a), United (h), Arsenal (a)
TRICKY (2): Swansea (a), Stoke (a)
SHOULD WIN (5): West Brom (a), Saudi Sportswashing Machine (h), Hull (a), QPR (h), Crystal Palace (h)

UNITED 53
DIFFICULT (4): Livepool (a), City (h), Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h)
TRICKY (2): Tottenham (h), Everton (a)
SHOULD WIN (4): Villa (h), West Brom (h), Crystal Palace (a), Hull (a)

We have the same number of expect to win games as United, but they have more tough games. We have a decent chance of gaining a few points on them, but we have to gain four due to our poor goal difference. Next week is pivotal. We cannot lose or we need to gain seven points from the remaining nine games. A draw and we have a chance.

Liverpool have five expect to win games compared to our four, but an extra difficult game. We only need to gain two points.

The United-Liverpool game is interesting: a draw and we gain on both, a win by one puts us in a good position as the other. So there is a good chance of finishing ahead of one of them. The problem is we must get ahead of both, which means we need good performances in the tricky away games.
 
billyiddo said:
agree that United will be out of it soon enough - ourselves, Liverpool, Chelsea and City in their next 5 games - not going to be easy.

Expect Arse and 'pool to be 3rd/4th - we've a good channce of 5th though and hopefully pushing either of them hard for 4th
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I agree with this assessment. I think we will do well to finish 5th tbh. Next weekend is massive for us. I think it is our cup final. Win at OT and the momentum gained could at least see us mount a challenge for fourth. Think it is just beyond us though. We are still short of quality and match changers in some key areas imo. Also, we are always liable to slip up in games we really should be expected to win. Hope these two last points are addressed next season.
 
parklane1 said:
I am old school and will not look further then the next game, win that and then I will look at the next one.
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I agree, how many years do we put up lists like this and expect results to follow. Everyone knows football isn't played on paper and with our defence who knows how our games will go. The one thing going for us is we are not favourites and hopefully with that lack of pressure it will let us play our football and see where it takes us.
 
Joesh said:
I agree, how many years do we put up lists like this and expect results to follow. Everyone knows football isn't played on paper and with our defence who knows how our games will go. The one thing going for us is we are not favourites and hopefully with that lack of pressure it will let us play our football and see where it takes us.
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One of the problems is that some fans think that football in the real world is the same as on abacus games, stats, stats and more stats. If only it was that easy.
 
Pirate55 said:
I agree with this assessment. I think we will do well to finish 5th tbh. Next weekend is massive for us. I think it is our cup final. Win at OT and the momentum gained could at least see us mount a challenge for fourth. Think it is just beyond us though. We are still short of quality and match changers in some key areas imo. Also, we are always liable to slip up in games we really should be expected to win. Hope these two last points are addressed next season.
Click to expand...
i think all of the above also applies to our direct competitors. if they didn't have similar problems to us then they would be out of sight by now. i also think we'll come up short, but that is based on my intrinsic pessimism as a spurs fan rather than the quality of our opponents for fourth.
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Whilst I agree with your logic... Liverpool have experienced it once, United have experienced it plenty of times but not with this team or manager. Arsenal yep they always seem to do it

Can someone plot the points for each side based on last seasons results? That would be an interesting forecast because looking at the other thread united are 1 point up like for like, and arse and Liverpool are well behind. Can they keep up the great form continuously with potentially the cup as well
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I've got all those graphs on my computer, but it will have to wait for me getting up and walking over there ;)
 
Joesh said:
I agree, how many years do we put up lists like this and expect results to follow. Everyone knows football isn't played on paper and with our defence who knows how our games will go. The one thing going for us is we are not favourites and hopefully with that lack of pressure it will let us play our football and see where it takes us.
Click to expand...

oh GHod, remember the year we had 13 points on the gooners and one of their fans did a game by game on how they would catch and pass us which was roundly laughed at
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Can someone plot the points for each side based on last seasons results? That would be an interesting forecast because looking at the other thread united are 1 point up like for like, and arse and Liverpool are well behind. Can they keep up the great form continuously with potentially the cup as well
Click to expand...

Replacing QPR, Burnley and Leicester with Norwich, Fulham and Cardiff, respectively:

ARSE +23 77
TOTT +25 75
LIVP +17 68
MANU +12 65
SOTN +11 60

I'd expect both Liverpool and Man Utd to perform better than that this time around, though.
 
Armchair Expert said:
i think all of the above also applies to our direct competitors. if they didn't have similar problems to us then they would be out of sight by now. i also think we'll come up short, but that is based on my intrinsic pessimism as a spurs fan rather than the quality of our opponents for fourth.
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There is however a significant difference with our direct competitors though. l'arsnl have been plagued by injury problems for most of the season and are now getting some of their players back or back in form. Liverscum took some little while to recover from losing Suarez, not having Sturridge available and not finding their best formation until recently.

Also, both these teams have now found some consistent form of late. It will be difficult for us to overhaul one of them as well as keeping United at bay imo.
 
mudshark said:
Replacing QPR, Burnley and Leicester with Norwich, Fulham and Cardiff, respectively:

ARSE +23 77
TOTT +25 75
LIVP +17 68
MANU +12 65
SOTN +11 60

I'd expect both Liverpool and Man Utd to perform better than that this time around, though.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I agree with your comment and am surprised Liverscum only got 17 points from those games last season seeing as how they finished second and very nearly won the PL last season.
 
Yeah, although their title push came off the back of 12 wins in their final 14 games, and the only fixture in the list that was part of their run-in last term was the Saudi Sportswashing Machine one. They lost to Arse, Hull and Chelsea earlier in the season, and drew with Swansea and West Brom.
 
I'm very much a take it one game at a time kind of guy and it's certainly not over til it's over. I will admit though to looking back to the Crystal Palace away game with more than a tinge of anger mixed with regret. Those three points would have been so valuable and IMHO we really should have taken them. But as I said in another thread earlier this week , I expected nothing this season, so anything we've achieved and that may achieve further is a bonus for me. What we need now as a club, as a team, as fans is belief. I believe and will do so until it is mathematically impossible.
 
Not sure where we will finish but anything around 70 - 74 points would be a very good season imo and something very strong to build on for next season. I don't know that we have enough to drop just 7 points and break our record but I could be surprised and proven very happily wrong.
 
galeforce said:
oh GHod, remember the year we had 13 points on the gooners and one of their fans did a game by game on how they would catch and pass us which was roundly laughed at
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And didn't they beat us to Champions league that season

It's not unreasonable to have an expectation of getting the same like for like as last season as much as it's nit unreasonable to expect us to lose a chunk of games as it's sexy.... We have no idea how things will pan out but were certainly in contention
 
Pirate55 said:
I agree with this assessment. I think we will do well to finish 5th tbh. Next weekend is massive for us. I think it is our cup final. Win at OT and the momentum gained could at least see us mount a challenge for fourth. Think it is just beyond us though. We are still short of quality and match changers in some key areas imo. Also, we are always liable to slip up in games we really should be expected to win. Hope these two last points are addressed next season.
Click to expand...

This is the key for me though also gives me optimism that we can improve over the summer with a couple of additions
 
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