We'll need a minimum of 70 points to get top 4, that's 20 points from the remaining 10 games. Possible, but unlikely. I guess there are four games I'd look at that I'd be fully confident of winning:
Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Hull (H)
Knowing Spurs, they're hardly dead certs. Leicester have already beaten us at White Hart Lane for example, Burnley have taken points off everyone in the top seven except us and Arsenal and they still need to play us both. But let's say we win all four of those. We're now on 62 points. We'll now need eight points from the remaining six games. Two wins and two draws. But they're all gonna be very hard.
Saudi Sportswashing Machine away is probably the easiest on paper. We beat them 4-0 at St James Park last season. But, they beat us at WHL not too long ago. They were very unlucky not to beat Man Utd the other night. They've got a tough run before they play us, at home, which is the typical "turn things around" type victory that teams have enjoyed over Spurs for years.
Stoke away is going to be very tough - they're third in the form table since Christmas, even if our record up there is quite good.
Then Everton away on the final day of the season. Martinez teams tend to explode into form in the final third of the season (27 points from the final 12 games last year!). We haven't won at Goodison in eight years and we've lost three of the last four there, it's not exactly a ground I'm confident of going to and getting a result.
Those are the easy three. The others are even tougher.
Southampton away is going to be a really hard game - by that point it's going to be do or die for them and they've got the added incentive of beating Pochettino on his first return to St Marys.
Man Utd away is never going to be easy, even if we've won our last two there. Their record in the big games has been pretty good this season. The likely result of this one is us taking the game to them and being the better side but losing to a jammy deflected goal or bad refereeing decision.
And of course, Emirates Marketing Project at the Lane. They'll probably go into that game knowing they will be out of the title race and their season will end trophyless if they lose. Echoes of 2013? Perhaps. But let's not forget that they've scored 15 in their last three games against us - will require a big performance.
It's not impossible. But it will require a few of our under performing players stepping up. I'm looking at at least two of Townsend, Lamela, Soldado and Adebayor that will need to hit some decent, consistent form over the rest of the season. And if any of Kane, Eriksen or Bentaleb pick up an injury then we're in real trouble.