City: When Kompany is missing, that team is not Emirates Marketing Project. When Kompany is there, they win games regardless of how badly they play. This is nothing new. Emirates Marketing Project have been playing badly all season, the media have been waiting for them to lose so they can mention all those things, but they missed the most important point that is, Emirates Marketing Project can be playing as well as they did for parts of last season but forget how to play when Kompany is missing. If Kompany missed the rest of the season, I'd be sure Emirates Marketing Project would crumble, but as soon as Kompany comes back, they'll carry on like they have been for the rest of this season, mediocre by their standards at best, but winning most games. If anything, City could get much better when Kompany comes back if Silva and Toure find their form. No clue what's happening with Tevez at the moment either.
Also note: Southampton have been playing extremely well since the managerial change. (They got better results before the change, but their playing style has been insane since the change.) Everton, Man United and Emirates Marketing Project have had insanely tough games against them. Swansea and Soton are clubs on the rise and we have to play them both. Southampton winning was fairly predictable given Kompany was missing and Soton played almost a European style of football that City have struggled with.
Chelsea: From title contenders under Di Matteo and being branded as "unstoppable", Chelsea appointed Rafa and their title challenge ended in the media that day. This is just a case of us hoping Rafa fudges it up for them more than anything else. The fans make their home games harder than their away games at the moment.
2nd isn't out of reach, but it's something everyone can hope for without expecting at all, a nice little bonus... Third is something to be disappointed about if we don't get it, that's the real target. We all know how important Fourth is and how much of a disaster it is to finish lower than that, even if our start of the season expectations were a year of transition while Chelsea go from 6th to 3rd after buying Hazard, Oscar, etc.
The only strange things are, City have weakened, then haven't played anywhere near their best and Chelsea have fudged up their best start to a season in years and despite all their money spent haven't been able to cruise into the top 4.
The thing that scares me slightly is, City will spend big next year to compensate for this year (if things go how they're going... League gone, CL gone in group stage again)... Chelsea will spend if they only scrape CL positions (new striker and spending to get closer to the top rather than risk missing out of CL and not competing for title...) Both of those clubs will probably have new managers too.
So we'll see if FFP makes them hold back at all.... Arsenal will probably spend, even if they did spend 10 million euros in January. If they miss out on CL football, they won't be able to spend much though... Everton can't really spend, unless they sell someone and use that money... They might be able to spend 10-15 million if not, at most.
Liverpool, Swansea and other wildcards for next season are far less predictable.
But the important thing is the summer. We will have to see what City and Chelsea do, who they get to manage them and everything else... Man United usually buy one player, even if they already spent a lot of money on a kid... The Fergy effect means they'll always compete for the title, even if they have a team of 11 year old girls.
So what do we do? If we get CL football, we have to spend,
we still have a lot of money from this summer, we will have CL money next season, this is our chance.
Man United, Chelsea and City
should be way way way out of reach of Arsenal, Everton, etc... So next transfer window might see a gap being bought. 3rd and 5th might be miles apart... We can fight to create a big 4 that stays the same 4 clubs for 3-4 years.... But if we fall back, if Arsenal get the CL spot this season and spend instead of us, bringing in David Villa, a few other high quality players, we might get left behind again and be fighting for 5th for 3 years, by which time the money would have created a chasm.
2nd would be great, but 3rd would mean we can buy players before our CL qualifier (which we aren't 100% to win either)... More tv money due to the way CL money works would be nice too.
2nd and 3rd are real prizes, not just 4th. The money gap between 4th and 2nd can be huge (depending how far you go in the CL), so by all means aim high, just don't lose 4th.