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Putin & Russia

Rorschach said:
He's massing troops on the Ukraine border this last week. Not good.
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Just one big chess game, wants to see what NATO and/or Biden will do imo.
Does make me chuckle though that whenever NATO holds its exercises in Ukraine on the Russian borders that everyone seems fine with it yet the reverse draws the usual anti-Russian rhetoric in the media etc
(2018/9 was last one I believe with one planned for this year)

Putin's methods leave a lot to be desired that is very true, but we should be looking to find more ways to work with Russia rather than backing them into a corner and trying to alienate them all the time - the people deserve that at the very least.
However, if you keep poking a bear with a stick, don't be surprised one day if it turns around and bites you.
 
Trixster said:
Just one big chess game, wants to see what NATO and/or Biden will do imo.
Does make me chuckle though that whenever NATO holds its exercises in Ukraine on the Russian borders that everyone seems fine with it yet the reverse draws the usual anti-Russian rhetoric in the media etc
(2018/9 was last one I believe with one planned for this year)

Putin's methods leave a lot to be desired that is very true, but we should be looking to find more ways to work with Russia rather than backing them into a corner and trying to alienate them all the time - the people deserve that at the very least.
However, if you keep poking a bear with a stick, don't be surprised one day if it turns around and bites you.
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Hmmm. Last time NATO invaded a foreign country vs last time (or two or three) Russia invaded a different sovereign state?

Putin is the stereotypical imperial bully. He doesn't want to work with the West except to get what he wants. He is no worse than a lot in the West but at least we have some, perhaps limited, democratic and moralistic systems that limit these aggressions. Except if you sell out to a fully neo-liberal market in which case Putin is just a different style of achieving the same crap.
 
Trixster said:
Just one big chess game, wants to see what NATO and/or Biden will do imo.
Does make me chuckle though that whenever NATO holds its exercises in Ukraine on the Russian borders that everyone seems fine with it yet the reverse draws the usual anti-Russian rhetoric in the media etc
(2018/9 was last one I believe with one planned for this year)

Putin's methods leave a lot to be desired that is very true, but we should be looking to find more ways to work with Russia rather than backing them into a corner and trying to alienate them all the time - the people deserve that at the very least.
However, if you keep poking a bear with a stick, don't be surprised one day if it turns around and bites you.
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I agree we should treat him differently. We should treat him like the minor despot he is. No more appeasement as he'll just keep pushing it further and further. Russia has invaded and annexed parts of Ukraine and killed 14,000 UA troops, 2 more today. Putin has had a pass for the last 4 years while his asset was US president, but thankfully that flimflam is over. Russia has been moving vast amounts of military equipment towards Ukraine for weeks and was drumming up a false provocation to attack the Ukraine over the weekend. This is not a game.
 
Lost Mango said:
Hmmm. Last time NATO invaded a foreign country vs last time (or two or three) Russia invaded a different sovereign state?
I wasn't meaning that they did or had, think you know that too. But since the break-up of the USSR Russia has always accused NATO of encroachment despite the fact that it was the countries that left the USSR wanting to join NATO. Now there is very little land protecting Russia versus before and this worries them a lot.

The annex of Crimea should also be viewed with an understanding of why this took place, not saying it is justified in any way shape or form but it's fully understandable as to why it happened with Ukraine lifting its skirt to the US & EU and the very real prospect of losing the navel base in Sevastopol. BTW, Russia has done more for Crimea in the last few years than Ukraine ever did - not my words but those of the mother-in-law.

Putin is the stereotypical imperial bully.
I don't think I stated he was anything rosy either )

He doesn't want to work with the West except to get what he wants.
He may not, but the fact is Russia does deal with the West quite a lot - just ask the mad Dutchies or zee Germans. He can't be so bloody minded about it, the country needs it and Putin is all for the country.
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Rorschach said:
Russia has invaded and annexed parts of Ukraine and killed 14,000 UA troops, 2 more today.
See above for Crimea. This 14,000 I believe is the total cost of lives for the war and not just UA troops, afaik the UA troop cost is around 5k'ish.
While the pro-Russian rebels undoubtedly have backing from Moscow with troops and equipment they are not all Russian soldiers, the majority of them are self-styled militia and volunteers, and these too have lost in the region of 5k lives.

The saddest part is the innocents who are caught up in this, Donetsk & Luhansk mainly but of course other affected areas* as well, who have likely lost numbers close to 3k/4k - and please don't make out that UA are angels because I know from family friends out in these areas that it isn't the case. War, as always, brings out the worst in humans regardless :(
(*Inc the loss of the passenger plane.)

Putin has had a pass for the last 4 years while his asset was US president, but thankfully that flimflam is over.
Wholeheartedly agree, there needs to be someone in place who can reign in his designs but they should also be willing to work with as well where possible.

Russia has been moving vast amounts of military equipment towards Ukraine for weeks and was drumming up a false provocation to attack the Ukraine over the weekend. This is not a game.
They did this a couple of years ago too, nothing came of it then and it won't this time. A very large and dangerous game of call my bluff, UA & RU are both as bad as each other in this regards tbh.
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Yep you are right on the 14k being an overall figure. My bad, though in my defence I was quoting someone who should have known better. Irrespective, as you no doubt know, these are just the latest casualties in a long history of Russian oppression of Ukraine. Russia has had their boot on Ukraine's neck forever, and the invasion was in direct response to Ukraine's attempts to break free of Russia's influence after the Maidan revolution. I have no doubt that the UA are no angels in this fight but there is one aggressor and invader here. That Putin doesn't want a NATO country butting up against Russia is obvious but Ukraine desire for full NATO membership is less the West lifting it's skirt and more the Ukraine dying for a shag.

I sincerely hope this is more sabre-rattling but the Ukrain/Russia watchers I read are less confident of this.
 
Rorschach said:
Yep you are right on the 14k being an overall figure. My bad, though in my defence I was quoting someone who should have known better. Irrespective, as you no doubt know, these are just the latest casualties in a long history of Russian oppression of Ukraine. Russia has had their boot on Ukraine's neck forever, and the invasion was in direct response to Ukraine's attempts to break free of Russia's influence after the Maidan revolution. I have no doubt that the UA are no angels in this fight but there is one aggressor and invader here. That Putin doesn't want a NATO country butting up against Russia is obvious but Ukraine desire for full NATO membership is less the West lifting it's skirt and more the Ukraine dying for a shag.

I sincerely hope this is more sabre-rattling but the Ukrain/Russia watchers I read are less confident of this.
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The lifting the skirt was a decade ago. After winking at the former Soviet republics, the EU and NATO didn't do much. Georgia was backed by the US to the tune of many billions. These actions 10-15 years ago are instrumental in the situation we have today. Actors in the US who still wanted a cold war, and the EU pushed by the US, essentially started getting involved in Russia's back yard. Sure these were sovereign nations now, but they were heavily tied to Russia. In language, in trade, in energy, and in politics. When NATO pulled these nations away from Russia's sphere of influence, Russia was fuming. They setup online warfare which probably helped give us Brexit and the US Trump, and has led to the situation in Ukraine which was relatively stable before billions of dollars were fed to right-wing revolutionaries.

Driving back from a funeral in Dorset yesterday there were a lot of tanks on the move. Tanks on trucks. Wouldn't be surprised to see Nato sending troops to Ukraine now.
 
SpurMeUp said:
The lifting the skirt was a decade ago. After winking at the former Soviet republics, the EU and NATO didn't do much. Georgia was backed by the US to the tune of many billions. These actions 10-15 years ago are instrumental in the situation we have today. Actors in the US who still wanted a cold war, and the EU pushed by the US, essentially started getting involved in Russia's back yard. Sure these were sovereign nations now, but they were heavily tied to Russia. In language, in trade, in energy, and in politics. When NATO pulled these nations away from Russia's sphere of influence, Russia was fuming. They setup online warfare which probably helped give us Brexit and the US Trump, and has led to the situation in Ukraine which was relatively stable before billions of dollars were fed to right-wing revolutionaries.

Driving back from a funeral in Dorset yesterday there were a lot of tanks on the move. Tanks on trucks. Wouldn't be surprised to see Nato sending troops to Ukraine now.
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If I recall Ukraine was on a path to join NATO until Yanukovych put the kybosh on it (before he absconded to Russia). I know all about the Sandworm attacks (the book is fantastic if you haven't read it). Ukraine was more or less used as the testing site for Russia cyber-attack techniques culminating with the infrastructure attacks. They haven't pushed it that far with either Brexit or US elections (yet).
Russia is trying to pin the Ukraine exactly where it is now. Stuck between the East and West in a forever low-grade war. The commonly held opinion I have read is their only path out from under Russia's thumb is full NATO membership.
 
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Rorschach said:
If I recall Ukraine was on a path to join NATO until Yanukovych put the kybosh on it (before he absconded to Russia). I know all about the Sandworm attacks (the book is fantastic if you haven't read it). Ukraine was more or less used as the testing site for Russia cyber-attack techniques culminating with the infrastructure attacks. They haven't pushed it that far with either Brexit or US elections (yet).
Russia is trying to pin the Ukraine exactly where it is now. Stuck between the East and West in a forever low-grade war. The commonly held opinion I have read is their only path out from under Russia's thumb is full NATO membership.
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Ukraine are still keen to join Nato. Yanukovych's actions make no odds. There is nothing stopping Nato from adding them now if they wanted to. Previously Ukraine was very much tied to Russia. It supplied oli and gas to Ukraine and in return expected Ukraine to remain under its influence. The more control Russia exerted the cheaper the energy. But it is more complex than that. As with NI and Brexit, the two nations were heavily intertwined. Families are often split living between the two nations, they share culture, music, language etc. The war has changed a lot of that, but Ukraine will remain more linked to Russia than connected to Europe because of this shared history and language. Adding Ukraine to the EU would be an even bigger statement and strengthen Ukraine's sovereignty from imperial Russia, but the EU nations are not keen to add more free movement and create more issues for the block to address.

Edit: important to also be honest that the Maidan revolution was stimulated and funded by foreign powers. The US put in billions trying to manoeuvre Ukraine away from Russia. And Russia has done the same in reverse. Essentially playing out the old cold war. I don't think the west - Nato - is particularly proud of how we handled this. Just see jack Straw - the foreign secret at the time - comments saying we could have handled Russia differently. The West had a fair bit to do with the current situation and it's the people in Ukraine who suffer when these large powers play 'the big game'.
 
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Isn't it amazing that even though the Electoral Commission found a lot wrong with Arron Banks £8m funding of Brexit, all they could do is pass it on to the national crime agency? That the government of the day owe a lot to Brexit for being in power, will no doubt help to bury this. Was the investigation into Russian involvement in UK politics ever published in full?


Referral to the National Crime Agency
We have reasonable grounds to suspect a number of offences under electoral law may have been committed. Further offences are not within the regulatory remit of the Commission. For those offences where we may impose civil sanctions, our sanctions are limited at £20,000.

The sums of money involved in these matters are significant. The relevant funding amounted to £8m, which included loans of £6m to Leave.EU, a registered campaigner in the EU Referendum. BFTC was loaned £2m, and put at least £2.9m into the referendum campaign.

The financial transactions we have investigated include companies incorporated in Gibraltar and the Isle of Man. These jurisdictions are beyond the reach of the Electoral Commission for the purpose of obtaining information for use in criminal investigations or proceedings.

Having considered these and other factors, the Commission, having completed its current investigation, has referred this matter to the NCA.

https://www.electoralcommission.org...tion-payments-made-better-country-and-leaveeu
 
Rorschach said:
They should implement Magnitsky sanctions now before it has gone too far.
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When the perpetrator is clearly Putin how well would those sanctions work? Aren't they more for targeting individuals? Putin has grown bigger than that, he's essentially the State. At least Biden isn't compromised like trump was, hopefully that means he's harder on them.
 
awesome dawson said:
When the perpetrator is clearly Putin how well would those sanctions work? Aren't they more for targeting individuals? Putin has grown bigger than that, he's essentially the State. At least Biden isn't compromised like trump was, hopefully that means he's harder on them.
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That is a good question and I'm no expert on it, but it is a concensus among those that I read that targeted financial sanctions under the Magnitsky Act are very good pressure points on Putin and his inner circle. He is largely insulated from the effects of state-wide sanctions, as are most despots. Ultimately Putin is little more than a mob boss running his country as a mafia state and a significant portion of his accumulated wealth and that of his inner circle is held in more 'secure' western countries. There is no doubt that makes him nervous. Magnitsky sanctions are relatively new but are already now seen as a better first step on the sanctions ladder rather than an end point.
 
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Rorschach said:
That is a good question and I'm no expert on it, but it is a concensus among those that I read are that targeted financial sanctions under the Magnitsky Act are very good pressure points on Putin and his inner circle. He is largely insulated from the effects of state-wide sanctions, as are most despots. Ultimately Putin is little more than a mob boss running his country as a mafia state and a significant portion of his accumulated wealth and that of his inner circle is held in more 'secure' western countries. There is no doubt that makes him nervous. Magnitsky sanctions are relatively new but are already now seen as a better first step on the sanctions ladder rather than an end point.
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Putin is the umbrella protecting the Russian power base. He is keeping a clique rich and in control. He can't quit precisely because of this, there are too many vested interests that he is maintaining. He’s more like a
Mafia boss in this regard. By targeting these various interests who are aligned with Putin you target the largely corrupt elite. How you define those that are corrupt is not simple, however. Roman A for example I am sure he has been totally legit for the past decade. Money allows you to be. But when Russia was in turmoil (the wild west they call it), they smirk "there were no rules". It is a grey area, the likes of Abramovich kowtow to Putin. It would be suicide not to. Abramovich's businesses are mainly Russian and using Russia's natural resources. He plays ball, he puts back into Russia a little, and if Putin needs him to do something, like all of the Russian elite, they do it. Should he go on the list? I think at the moment, the most corrupt and clearly crooked are the focus. Abramovich is banned from the UK simply because he refused to answer some new standard questions re. the origins of his wealth.
 
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