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Politics, politics, politics

Thanks, I appreciate you taking me in good faith, sometimes its easy to miss that part of a conversation/intention on a message board.

To be honest, I still sense a degree of wishful thinking in what you say, rather than pragmatism.

So far in negotiations we have made virtually every concession they demand, what is so different about your proposed Labour deal? Im not seeing it to be honest (and it is entirely possible "Im not seeing it" - Ive missed it completely!).

I would assume Labour would want to start again. They would not want to take up from when the Tories left off. Are we talking re-negotiation of the divorce bill onward?

I cant work out why the EU would go through all the song and dance a second time, rather than just pushing ahead now. What is the big win you propose over our current situation?


And I do also think Labour will need to offer some promises around immigration. If Im not mistaken Im pretty sure Corbyn has recognised it is an issue, at least for many, and Im sure he will want their votes too. If all he does is pander to the already Labour leaning he will end up creating a sizeable divide along those lines.

Dont forget, he lost the last election against a terribly weak Conservative party, while Id assume he would win the next - it might not be the landslide you hope. We could end up bogged down for years with a situation like now, neither with a real majority. If Corbyn is smart he will pull across as many as he can now, and that means doing "something" with immigration.

Re. the divorce bill and starting negotiations from there (in the event of a Labour government) I'm not sure. But I do know that the EU have indicated they would be willing to extend article 50, so I don't think that that part of it is wishful thinking. It makes sense on all sides that in the event of a new government, there would be an extension of article 50 and further time for new negotiations.

The main difference with a proposed Labour deal is a permanent customs union with the EU. This goes a long way to solving problems that the Tories have run in to and helps to solve things with the Irish Border (it's not the only thing required, but it helps). I have said previously what the other differences are between a Tory Brexit and a Labour one, but the permanent customs union is the main one.

As for a Labour landslide, well I'm not expecting that. But I do think that Labour will at the very least be the largest party next time around (if not a small majority).
 
Not exactly building bridges! Problem is it pushes poeople to become more reticent in their world view. Remainers are also completely consumed by their own righteousness and fervant belief system. I'm sure there's a clever Philosopher who could sum up such varying and often valid, truths with a catchy theory @ShipOfGoldblum ?

You probably want a structuralist for this one, as you’re not going to get a lot of foundational verity out of Brexiteers. Unfortunately most of them are French, and the ones who haven’t gone back home in dudgeon are busy proving that safety specifications can be interpreted however you choose, for triple pay, at the new stadium. I know a logical positivist who could bodge something for a monkey at the weekend if that’s any good?
 
The stupidity of the Brexiteers is really quite fortunate: their gaffes have discredited their project. Definitely a factor in the swing to remain.
 
You probably want a structuralist for this one, as you’re not going to get a lot of foundational verity out of Brexiteers. Unfortunately most of them are French, and the ones who haven’t gone back home in dudgeon are busy proving that safety specifications can be interpreted however you choose, for triple pay, at the new stadium. I know a logical positivist who could bodge something for a monkey at the weekend if that’s any good?

Yes, but can they lay wiring? o_O
 
The elephant in the uk, that no one seems to have mentioned recently: how/will the agreement address free movement and immigration from the EU?

I guess it will address/ stop European immigration (as May recognised this as key). The agreement may also stop us from being completely free to be, work, travel in Europe too. And in the future our immigrants may come from further a field?

Will people from Ireland need a visa to be in England or Scotland for long periods? Will we need the same to go live and work in Ireland?

This is progress? [emoji23]

Or will we be like Switzerland and Norway, with few controls on freedom of movement?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

It won't affect Ireland because of the 1923 Common Travel Area

And EU26-UK will just been the same as it is between most other parts of the 1st world - c.3-6 months travel without a visa
 
History will look at it like Austria pulling out of the Zollverein when the Prussians made the road to Germany inevitable.

gonads

It will see we this country were hoodwinked by a bunch of hooray Henry’s who wanted to go back to days of empire and persuaded abunch of geriatrics and idiots up north to vote for the ‘good old days’ that never actually existed except in thier own deluded minds.
 
The double think tonight is hilarious, Mogg and Bojo claiming we are now giving up the sovereignty that their leave campaign said we didn’t have anyway.
 
Isn't it Stockholm Syndrome when you get so ground down by your captor that any thought of life without them becomes so terrifying?

Your a well meaning lad so will stay polite.
I have no love or loathing toward EEC, I could not care less about Brussels or Westminster.
I care about people and thier lives. Brexit was an exercise in self indulgence by a group of conservative MP’s who put their own right wing anti Europe xenophobic feelings ahead of everybody in the country.
Please don’t come out with comments like “isn’t it Stockholm Sydrome” etc, that is just not necessary.
I would not care less if/when we leave Europe as long as nobody gets financially hurt or physically with regards to N.Ireland.
 
Re. the divorce bill and starting negotiations from there (in the event of a Labour government) I'm not sure. But I do know that the EU have indicated they would be willing to extend article 50, so I don't think that that part of it is wishful thinking. It makes sense on all sides that in the event of a new government, there would be an extension of article 50 and further time for new negotiations.

The main difference with a proposed Labour deal is a permanent customs union with the EU. This goes a long way to solving problems that the Tories have run in to and helps to solve things with the Irish Border (it's not the only thing required, but it helps). I have said previously what the other differences are between a Tory Brexit and a Labour one, but the permanent customs union is the main one.

As for a Labour landslide, well I'm not expecting that. But I do think that Labour will at the very least be the largest party next time around (if not a small majority).

I think there is a big difference between an extension, and a do over. And would suggest anything more than a few extra months would indeed be wishful thinking.

All comes down to where you think negotiations would pick up. For me, and extension suggests Labour come in, take what has already been agreed and tweak it somewhat where they think they can (bear in mind the EU have given virtually no concessions to date).

If you want to go back further than that, how far? The divorce bill? That took long enough, and they have literally extorted us, so I doubt they want to go from there. I would assume Labour to be stuck with that.

So from negotiations of Brexit terms then? Start all that over? For me that goes beyond "extension" and into "do over" and I simply dont see why the EU would have the will or appetite for it.

Customs Union/Common Rulebook - whats the difference? Really? And is a difference enough to make the above worth while?

I would wager, ultimately, whatever Labour came up with would be just as unpalateable to the UK as whatever May has. That being the case, they would certainly need the numbers to push it through, otherwise - we end up in exactly the same spot.


I am sorry to say your argument hasnt convinced me yet that it is any more than the wishful thinking of a Labour member. And Im really not trying to be an ass about that, its just I cant see it as tangibly as you can.

Perhaps thats a lack of insight on my part, or a lack of info from yours, but I just dont see it the way you do. It all smells much the same to me and I cant see why the EU would entertain it.

Particularly as they have us pretty much exactly where they want us, the two most likely outcomes being:
- We are a vassal state to the EU (they are literally tinkling themselves on that one).
- We give up and come back with our tail between our legs (again, theyd love it).


In other words, The DUP ain't voting with May on this deal.

Well nobody saw that coming!
 
Brexit draft agreement: What do they do now?

Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor

What do they do now? The cabinet is not going to like the draft agreement that they'll have to decide on.

Many of them probably won't like it one little bit. Number 10 says tonight that they have managed to remove the idea of a "backstop to the backstop".

But there is, in the agreement, the potential for a different regime for Northern Ireland. Sources close to the process admit privately that they haven't managed to remove the controversy.

How could they when for months, the difficulties of the conundrums have been plain for all to see.

Northern Ireland will, according to one insider familiar with the contents, under the backstop essentially be in the single market and therefore under the rules of the EU courts and the Commission.

The DUP's fury is already obvious tonight and that's even before they have seen that detail. But it's suggested that the final draft is worse for them than the speculation that had already made them fume.

Having come this far however, it doesn't seem to me that many of the cabinet are likely to walk on Wednesday over what's in the document.

It's suggested that those with bigger doubts are more likely to cause problems for the prime minister because it won't get through Parliament.

One source told me senior ministers are thinking not just about the wisdom of backing a deal they don't like because it's a sour compromise, but whether it is folly to back a deal they believe can't get through Parliament.

Slamming on the brakes now would force a crisis, but it could be less serious than the political disaster of pursuing this plan to an eventual calamitous defeat that could take them all down.

The eruption of immediate resistance from Brexiteers on Tuesday night was an immediate display of how hard it might be.

And Tories tempted by another referendum may be swayed by the enthusiasm the small number of their colleagues who are campaigning for one seem to be gaining.

So if the final vote in Parliament were tomorrow it's extremely hard to see how the government would win the day.

But so much could happen between now and then.

Government ministers and whips will do everything they can to change the dynamic.

To make the deal look like a sensible but definite triumph, to paint the alternatives as too scary to contemplate.

And frankly, when it comes to it, many MPs who might be tempted to rebel just would dearly love the whole thing to be done.

So it's just not possible yet to make the final judgement that some members of the cabinet fear tonight - that the deal as it stands just won't get the numbers in Parliament.

We cannot put ourselves yet into the Parliamentary moment that will come in a few weeks' time.

In putting the agreement in front of her cabinet, Theresa May plainly believes that forging ahead with a plan that won't please everyone is a risk worth taking.

Her colleagues will decide at 2pm on Wednesday if she will have that chance.


Brexit: EU gives May space to 'spin' draft deal

Katya Adler
Europe editor

What's so striking about this draft Brexit deal the UK media and politicians are all abuzz about, is the marked lack of excitement and/or hysteria in EU circles.

Contrary to the UK narrative, this is not viewed in Brussels as the back-against-the-wall, make-or-break moment.

There's still some time to keep negotiating. EU-UK technical talks are, in fact, ongoing as neither all the "i"s, nor all the "t"s of a deal have yet been dotted or crossed.

The thinking here is: if the UK cabinet or certain EU member states strongly object to specific parts of the draft document (as long as they don't rip up the whole thing), then negotiators can go back to the drawing board.

As I've mentioned before, the EU is clearly more relaxed about timing - as long as a deal is signed before March - than Theresa May at this stage.

You get the feeling that the current sense of pressure and urgency is designed to help the UK prime minister at home.

Storm clouds surrounded her once again last weekend, with cabinet minister Jo Johnson resigning and mutterings of potential mutiny from Brexiteer and Remainer conservative MPs, never mind the Labour Party and the DUP plotting over the eventual Brexit parliamentary vote.

It looked (once again) like the whole thing could unravel on the UK side.

Brussels has repeatedly told Mrs May that - as long as they could agree on the details of a deal amongst themselves - the EU would help her present it however she wished in order to help her sell the package back home.

I think now is one of those moments, which would explain why Brussels kept so silent on Tuesday night - such a politically sensitive night in the UK.

One of my high-level EU contacts even sent me an emoji with a closed zip instead of a mouth - to indicate that he couldn't talk.

These are hours for Downing Street to spin.

This is not to say that the EU is completely chilled about the appearance of a draft Brexit deal - played down to me by a Brussels contact as a "mutual understanding" between EU and UK negotiators.

That's a reminder that this is a technical draft - not yet a political agreement.

While all eyes on Wednesday will be on Number 10 Downing Street and the reaction of the UK cabinet, the governments of all 27 EU countries and the European parliament also want to get their eyes and their mitts on all 500 pages of the document ASAP.

Of key interest to them: the compromise wording over the backstop, that insurance policy for the Irish border.

They, and Ireland in particular, will be relieved to see something Brexiteers will not like at all - that the EU will decide alongside the UK if and when the backstop arrangements need to kick in and also when they can be terminated and superseded by a new EU-UK trade deal.

They will also note that the all-UK customs union with the EU outlined as part of the backstop will be deeper with Northern Ireland than with the rest of the UK. This will be hard for the DUP to swallow.

More important to EU heavyweights France and Germany - and others that trade closely with the UK like Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands - will be to examine the small print of the backstop customs union to ensure the UK would have no competitive advantage over them.

I've spoken to diplomats who worry the European Commission was in such a hurry to get this draft Brexit deal document ready to Theresa May's timetable, that the priorities of some EU member states may have been overlooked.

France, Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain for example won't be happy that fishing rights in UK waters do not seem to appear in the text.

European capitals want a minimum of seven to 10 days to pore over the draft with a fine-tooth comb.

So, could there still be a special Brexit deal summit called this month as Theresa May so hopes?

It's not impossible - 25 November is being spoken about as a potential date.

Later on Wednesday as the UK cabinet meets in London, the 27 EU ambassadors will gather in Brussels.

To be discussed: the draft Brexit deal, the possibility of a November summit and - as a clear indication of the current uncertainty - ongoing contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit.
 
I have to admit, Im not a Twitterer, I dont especially understand how the site works/how to read things such that they are meaningful - would you be so kind as to point out what on earth that is supposed to be saying? Because it means nothing to me!
 
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