Baleforce
Arthur Rowe
to which their response was to call a GE and weaken their position in parliament even further
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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)
- Thread starter SpurMeUp
- Start date
to which their response was to call a GE and weaken their position in parliament even further
wiziwig
Steed Malbranque
To be fair she didn't realise how brick she was and thought she would strengthen herself against ERG. When press had to play fair Corbyn was half compitent.
parklane1
Tony Galvin
There is some truth in that for sure.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
You don't worry about all the car factory workers losing their jobs under a no deal setup? Or the City and finance jobs leaving, which would leave a big hole in public fiances (money for schools and hospitals). Or the increase in the cost of food, as it takes more time to pass thorugh a hard border? Or the short term disruption with vital drugs foreced to be flown in. Or that a hard exit would mean a border in Ireland - which would bring an end to the Good Friday peace deal. None of those things concern you?
Fair enough. The advantages we will get must be fantastic and truely exciting! What are they again?
elyid
Milija Aleksic
You raise good areas of concern, and all of these things concern me too, but imo everything is ultimately surmountable.
I think a no deal would focus both sides on reaching agreements on these things. i.e. the EU would be ****** if we aren't buying their food / medicine so pretty sure there would be an emergency trade deal knocked up in 5 seconds. Same for freedom of movement -- it suits everyone for British / EU citizens to stay put. Also, we technically don't *have* to enforce a border in Ireland... if Ireland and NI just don't do it who will stop them? (I've lived near Gibraltar before and there were extended periods where neither side policed the border, nobody said/did anything).
Re: Jobs, we could make more favourable rules than the EU actually increase incentives for financial firms to be here. Same with cars, or any industry. We can undercut the EU at every turn and gain business.
The current problem is that asking "permission" it's too easy for the EU to just say no. Once these agreements benefits them they'll be falling over themselves to negotiate. The end result would likely be similar to a Norway deal.
However, there is a massive caveat: We could have spent 2 years planning all this to ensure minimal disruption but seem to have done sod all. Doing it as an "emergency" does hugely increase the short terms risks.
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I would be 100% for the EU if the currency, social benefits, healthcare etc was standardized throughout. But having lived in different countries it seems like everywhere else is taking the **** and ignoring rules, expenses etc. while UK citizens get a rough deal and everything is done to the letter.
I don't see how we can be in the EU when we don't even have the Euro, or when millions flock here for benefits / healthcare. (Which also messes up many cities whose young population are leaving). They should get the same in their existing country.
I'm not saying your (or anyone else) opinion is right / wrong. Just sharing mine
Edit: Also apologies for the length etc. but might be some MPs on the forum ha
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SpurMeUp
Les Howe
You raise good areas of concern, and all of these things concern me too, but imo everything is ultimately surmountable.
I think a no deal would focus both sides on reaching agreements on these things. i.e. the EU would be ****** if we aren't buying their food / medicine so pretty sure there would be an emergency trade deal knocked up in 5 seconds. Same for freedom of movement -- it suits everyone for British / EU citizens to stay put. Also, we technically don't *have* to enforce a border in Ireland... if Ireland and NI just don't do it who will stop them? (I've lived near Gibraltar before and there were extended periods where neither side policed the border, nobody said/did anything).
Re: Jobs, we could make more favourable rules than the EU actually increase incentives for financial firms to be here. Same with cars, or any industry. We can undercut the EU at every turn and gain business.
The current problem is that asking "permission" it's too easy for the EU to just say no. Once these agreements benefits them they'll be falling over themselves to negotiate. The end result would likely be similar to a Norway deal.
However, there is a massive caveat: We could have spent 2 years planning all this to ensure minimal disruption.. and doing it as an "emergency" does hugely increase the short terms risks.
---
I would be 400% for the EU if the currency, social benefits, healthcare etc was standardized throughout. But having lived in different countries it seems like everywhere else is taking the **** and ignoring rules, expenses etc. while UK citizens get a rough deal and everything is done to the letter.
I don't see how we can be in the EU when we don't even have the Euro, or when millions flocks here for benefits / healthcare. (Which also messes up many cities whose young population are leaving). They should get the same in their existing country.
I'm not saying your (or anyone else) opinion is right / wrong. Just sharing mine
Cheers El Y.
I do agree, we'd find a way to get stuff in and out the island. Longer term we'd be fine with that.
GIbraltar is an intersting one...care to explain? Its in the EU with us, so there would be no border with Spain! The UK is obviously a far far bigger island and goods could arrive here, make thier way into Ireland and then be sent to the EU with no checks. So the EU would have no choice but to have a border through Ireland. Which means violence, opening up tensions. There's a lot more to consider:
The break up of the United Kingdom. N. Ireland might join Ireland - with all sorts of violence, Scotland would have a very legitimate case for another referendum to leave the UK and join the EU.
Overnight we'd lose all the free trade deals we have via the EU. We couldn't freelytrade with the likes of Japan, Canada etc etc. What that means is if you're a company working with one of these nations, overnight you could cease to be viable. Tariffs on imports/exports could criple demand for your goods or services and put prices up. Basically terrible for our economy. Which means less to spend on the people - on roads, education etc etc.
You said you'd be into the EU if it weren't for the currency - the one that we don't have? How do we get a raw deal, I don't understand your point.
Millions don't flock here for benifits. It is simple not true. Do you know what the real figures are? 70,000 net migration from the EU to the UK in the last year they published. That is dwafted by the 250,000 migrants who come from outside the EU - we let them in now, the EU don't have any say at all over these people. Then all evidence suggests these EU migrants put in much more than they take out - in taxes etc.
And you didn't mention what we get back from all this!? What's the pay off for all the hassel?
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If we don't put up a border, do you think the EU will? I'd very much like to see our government tell them they can stick their bricky deal and that there will be no NI border. Make that statement very publicly and ensure everyone knows that if there's violence again it's the EU's making.
With regard to your comments on trade, you seem to forget that whilst the EU is part of our market, it's also most of our competition.
I know you are all for free trade but most arnt, with that and mfn we can't control other countries imports, no controls on Ireland then WTO rules say no controls on anyone.
Added I would assume Calais would be on the Irish boarder with a one way door (they have a border going in ).
Assuming violence doesn't happen immediately whoever thought of the policy will be out pretty quickly imo.
elyid
Milija Aleksic
Interesting points. I'll try to avoid a long reply
Strangely enough Gibraltar isn't in the EU customs union so officially has a hard border with everyone.
However the border officiating seems to vary depending what mood everyone is in. Sometimes Spain slowly stop and check every car, other times everything has been shut for weeks and Del Boy types are importing zero-VAT goods through to sell at huge profit and no-one is checking. So it was noticeable to me that the EU are making such a large statement about the NI border, when they don't seem to care about existing borders.
I personally don't think that net EU migration is the best figure, as for example a UK citizen claiming benefits in Spain is receiving almost nothing compared to a Spanish citizen claiming full benefits/housing in the UK. So even though 1:1 net migration would be zero, net financial is not zero.
However, I don't really mind migration, my main point is being able to control our own laws to our own benefit (and I don't see how you can apply a single rule to multiple countries and have it optimal for everyone when so many things aren't the same within those countries)
The main problems in the UK are that the average salary to average house cost is one of the worst in Europe, healthcare is no better than other "poorer" countries imo and as a vague rule people here work harder. Having more control could help to fix this.
The finance thing is a good example -- we could do something like Hong Kong and offer tax breaks to encourage trade and ultimately generate *more* tax income by increasing trade, putting less pressure on Joe Bloggs to hand over half their salary each year. Economically we *could* outperform the EU, which should mean better lives for everyone.
Strangely enough Gibraltar isn't in the EU customs union so officially has a hard border with everyone.
However the border officiating seems to vary depending what mood everyone is in. Sometimes Spain slowly stop and check every car, other times everything has been shut for weeks and Del Boy types are importing zero-VAT goods through to sell at huge profit and no-one is checking. So it was noticeable to me that the EU are making such a large statement about the NI border, when they don't seem to care about existing borders.
I personally don't think that net EU migration is the best figure, as for example a UK citizen claiming benefits in Spain is receiving almost nothing compared to a Spanish citizen claiming full benefits/housing in the UK. So even though 1:1 net migration would be zero, net financial is not zero.
However, I don't really mind migration, my main point is being able to control our own laws to our own benefit (and I don't see how you can apply a single rule to multiple countries and have it optimal for everyone when so many things aren't the same within those countries)
The main problems in the UK are that the average salary to average house cost is one of the worst in Europe, healthcare is no better than other "poorer" countries imo and as a vague rule people here work harder. Having more control could help to fix this.
The finance thing is a good example -- we could do something like Hong Kong and offer tax breaks to encourage trade and ultimately generate *more* tax income by increasing trade, putting less pressure on Joe Bloggs to hand over half their salary each year. Economically we *could* outperform the EU, which should mean better lives for everyone.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Do you think trade, peace and prosperity comes from working with your neighbours or by telling them to do one? That we are the vastly smaller entity in this 'war' means we lose. Your outlook is about 150 years out of date. When Europe was often at war, often competing, and not trading.
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Parklaner81
Steve Hodge
Genuine question: what is the strategy of the ERG hold-outs? How are they hoping or expecting this will play out? I don't think I've actually heard them put anything forward, though I could have missed it.
A few days ago on here I suggested that, from the point of view of brexiteers, May's deal might just represent the least-bad of the realistic outcomes at this stage - essentially the same reasoning Jacob Rees-Mogg came out with over the past 24 hours. So if he thinks that, how do his ERG colleagues see it differently?
No deal almost certainly isn't going to happen, so do they actually, genuinely feel that May's deal is just so unacceptable they're prepared to accept a softer brexit or no brexit at all? What were their actions intended to achieve?
A few days ago on here I suggested that, from the point of view of brexiteers, May's deal might just represent the least-bad of the realistic outcomes at this stage - essentially the same reasoning Jacob Rees-Mogg came out with over the past 24 hours. So if he thinks that, how do his ERG colleagues see it differently?
No deal almost certainly isn't going to happen, so do they actually, genuinely feel that May's deal is just so unacceptable they're prepared to accept a softer brexit or no brexit at all? What were their actions intended to achieve?
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
Interesting points. I'll try to avoid a long reply
Strangely enough Gibraltar isn't in the EU customs union so officially has a hard border with everyone.
However the border officiating seems to vary depending what mood everyone is in. Sometimes Spain slowly stop and check every car, other times everything has been shut for weeks and Del Boy types are importing zero-VAT goods through to sell at huge profit and no-one is checking. So it was noticeable to me that the EU are making such a large statement about the NI border, when they don't seem to care about existing borders.
I personally don't think that net EU migration is the best figure, as for example a UK citizen claiming benefits in Spain is receiving almost nothing compared to a Spanish citizen claiming full benefits/housing in the UK. So even though 1:1 net migration would be zero, net financial is not zero.
However, I don't really mind migration, my main point is being able to control our own laws to our own benefit (and I don't see how you can apply a single rule to multiple countries and have it optimal for everyone when so many things aren't the same within those countries)
The main problems in the UK are that the average salary to average house cost is one of the worst in Europe, healthcare is no better than other "poorer" countries imo and as a vague rule people here work harder. Having more control could help to fix this.
The finance thing is a good example -- we could do something like Hong Kong and offer tax breaks to encourage trade and ultimately generate *more* tax income by increasing trade, putting less pressure on Joe Bloggs to hand over half their salary each year. Economically we *could* outperform the EU, which should mean better lives for everyone.
Can I ask what EU laws you don't like? That affects you or us? Can you name one? As for applying laws to a continent, they actually give us things that could not be achieved otherwise - free mobile roaming, pollution controls on factories air pollution which doesn't stop at the border etc etc
The main problems in the UK are UK problems! The EU is a scape sheep (avoided the filter?
OUR government can build more houses, invest in the health service post austerity (that we would have exited already were it not for Brexit slowing the economy). We could cut VAT or corporation tax now! Why aren't we? It's not the EU stopping us I'm sorry to say. Economically we do "outperform" the EU - by trading with them. Pre-EU in the 1970s the UK was called the Sick Man of Europe for a reason. After we joined we overtook France and Germany economcally. Not that you'd read it in the papers.You still haven't told us what we actually get from Brexit. What changes, what improves becuase of it?
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Hotshot-Tottenham
Edgar Davids
How could the Leave vote be split when every leaver claims they knew what they all voted for?
Surely one leave option would get 100% of the Leave vote.
SpurMeUp
Les Howe
If the ERG were logical and rational they wouldn't be pro Brexit. That is the truth of it. They are some of the more wacky fringe that have been given a recent voice and platform. Normally they are kept on the back benches and everyone else gets on with the real business. You can't expect the loons to suddenly become rational.
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Hotshot-Tottenham
Edgar Davids
Leave cheated to win. The whole thing’s a con.
The only safe path now is to revoke. There’s no clean mandate whatsoever to leave in any way.
The only safe path now is to revoke. There’s no clean mandate whatsoever to leave in any way.
Hotshot-Tottenham
Edgar Davids
No.
Just one. With law-abiding campaigns. No stealing data to target lies. No illegal overspending. No Arron Banks overseas money. Based in fact. With a defined outcome. With a plan.
elyid
Milija Aleksic
We're not allowed to introduce rules purely as an incentive for the finance industry (for example) as it would break anti-competition agreements within the EU. Anything like that would need to be approved, and would not be allowed as it could take business away from other EU countries. (I read a great article about this, will look for it)
So whilst we could reduce Corporation Tax across the board, we can't set specific incentives across industries to boost income just for the UK.
Considering some of the UKs largest industries revolve around intellectual property (i.e. law, media, finance etc.) having control such as that could be worth hundreds of billions a year in the right hands (or more).
I don't know why people *wouldn't* want this, what's the downside?
Though, the current idiots in charge make me wonder if this is just a pipe dream.
elyid
Milija Aleksic
It is surprising that the punishment for breaking electoral rules is a £61k fine. You could argue if its that cheap they should have broken the rules more if they really cared about winning!
I agree the whole thing is a con though and the initial referendum wasn't really brought about in good faith. Even though I voted leave I was surprised that a 1% win meant that was it with no further voting.