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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Diamond Lights said:
But the Brexit Party previously took 26% of the GE vote in 2019 in Hartlepool...So they just went back to the 'other' Brexit party which is the Conservatives.

don't think it's as cut and dry to say it's purely down to Brexit either though. The vaccine rollout and support from the vast majority of news outlets being right wing has kept the Tories in good favour.

Done a sterling job of ignoring the 127,000 deaths and the Tories handing out money to their chums on a weekly basis.
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I would say the vaccine rollout and Brexit are inextricably linked in the psyche of a lot of voters. The rw media have been pushing that line from the off that the rollout was a success solely because of leaving the EU, an argument that falls apart under the lightest of scrutiny. The last 5 years of Brexit hysteria will not easily be compartmentalised away when considering who to vote for at election time. Everything bleeds into everything else in politics. So the polarisation of the electorate is a baked-in advantage for the Tories for the foreseeable future IMO.

Edit: I know little about this by-election but looking at a few of the numbers it would appear this is not the bellwether the media are making it out to be.
 
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also worth pointing out to my previous post though, i see the Labour Left are quick to jump on the bandwagon about Hartlepool and take shots at Starmer. Not saying Starmer without fault, but if the Brexit party hadn't taken large swathes off the Tories last GE, then Corbyn would have lost Hartlepool easily too.
 
Baleforce said:
Dangerous times.
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This. What we need is continued scrutiny of this government and for Labour to be far more on the front foot, something sadly Starmer has not been despite a good start. A retreat to Corbynism or trying to outcompete Tory flag waving is not the answer. Labour should be less defensive in interviews though, that is something they should copy from the Tories. Really important they put together credible economic policies that don't just favour the likes of James Dyson.

On the latter isn't it amazing that a billionaire can exploit a country in the middle of a pandemic and withhold ventilators unless the tax conditions were favourable to his company. Just as bad is that Boris was happy to assist him to do this. Imagine if public sector workers such as the NHS workers chose to go on strike unless the PM fixed their tax or gave them a payrise during the pandemic? There would be widespread condemnation and rightly so. But when it came to Dyson doesn't even register a protest, Boris says he's not going to apologise for it either. It's this sort of double standards that makes me despair.
 
Baleforce said:
struggling to get my head around people voting tory because they want change?

seems pretty clear to me that many want more of the same
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comes back to my earlier point, people are shovelled brick into their heads from Sun, Mail, Torygraph, Times, Express, telling them Tories are the saviours.

UK ranks 33rd in Press Freedom Index, when you're 'free media' is basically an arm of the government in charge, hardly surprising. Lichenstein, Nambibia, Lithuania, Estonia, Cyprus, all those powerhouses above UK.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
I voted Labour today. Labour do not need to get into power through back handed measures and then change the voting system to suit them (you have had a go many times at Trump for doing similar) Labour need to get in touch with voters and the aspirational class.

To win not be far left or metropolitan elite but get back in touch with the normal working people. I am amazed Labour have done so badly after the tory response to the pandemic but the is a reason that and the fact that Johnson lied about his affair and wallpaper stuff has not had an impact.

People I guess don't care about that stuff, people like you and others who pay for news online and want to cross every T and dot every I might but the general public don't. I believe the only way the tories lose the next election is if the economy tanks.

I say this as someone who as long as no Labour leader campaigns to rejoin the EU is a solid Labour voter as I believe they will lead to a fairer Britain.
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It's forecast to recover/grow hugely in the coming months. The mental impact of lockdown easing and return to some semblance of normality is going to be huge (in a positive way) on the populace.
That will naturally impact political thinking, feeling of contentment and desire for change.

Since the EU referendum, whenever there's been a by-election, the Labour vote share has fallen.
 
Diamond Lights said:
HAHAHAHAHAHA OMG

just found out Jill Mortimer who just won Hartlepool lives a 1 hour drive away! imagine picking her to represent you when she doesn't even live in your fudging area. idiots.
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No Tory would be caught actually living in Heatlypool! Do you feel sympathy for the Turkeys voting for Christmas? Or just laugh at them? At the end of the day the Conservatives will represent the rich at the expense of the lower and middle classes. All of them lack innovation and freshness. Boris for his sins (and there are many) is fresher than the rest.

I really think political commentators and planners are missing the point. Politicking is about publicity now. That is why Trump won, it is why our PM is so incredibly succesful. Has to be one of the best supported PMs of all time, and the nation refers to him by his first name. On the other hand Starmer is more or less unknoown. Most people couldn't tell you his first name. And that says it all.
 
Stammer is a wet blanket, all he has got is expensive suits, coiffered hair, and too much a clone of both Blair and Cameron.
 
I believe the Labour party was formed to improve the lot of the working classes and underprivileged throught changes in society and their existence whether in power or simply being there as an alternative to the established parties applied the pressure to do that. After the second world war the country was on its arse and was ready for radical change, this lead to a financial boom and greater social support for those at the bottom, now society has change radically and the Iron Ladys prophecy that's theres no such thing as society rings true, it's been replaced by pressure groups. Most people dont see themselves as working class and rightly have higher aspirations, Blair saw this and courted that vote and along with recruiting political graduates rather than local political activists for candidates. In many cases local parties have been dominated by loony lefties and membership has dropped. I think is going to be tough for Labour to ever get continued support from any but minority pressure groups and their only chance of success is jumping on the failure of the Tories.
 
Diamond Lights said:
comes back to my earlier point, people are shovelled brick into their heads from Sun, Mail, Torygraph, Times, Express, telling them Tories are the saviours.
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I dont agree, I think people know exactly who and what Boris is but Labour stock is at such an all time low they dont care enough about who paid for Boris refurb enough to vote them in. The Corbyn legacy and continued infighting is hurting Labour more than anything. Its a shame that the opposition party is not in a fit enough state to really hold the current government accountable, but thats the reality, people trust Labour less to run things despite the Tory issues.
 
This map is quite an interesting picture of Labour's situation - it's the new electoral map of Sheffield (FKA the People's Republic of South Yorkshire):

st16.jpg


Labour are still clinging on to the east of the city, which is the poor ex-industrial areas.

Greens have taken over the city centre and west-central areas, which are the young affluent areas (universities and recent graduates).

Lib Dems hold the older affluent/suburban areas in the west

And the Tories have got their first ward in 30 years in a strong Brexit satellite town (Stocksbridge)

5-10 years ago that all would have been red, bar one or two bits of yellow in the west. This is just an illustration of how Labour's vote has fragmented right in the centre of their heartland. They've lost all their middle-class votes to Green (young people) and Lib Dems (older people), and some of their working-class votes (the whitest areas) to Tories.
 
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