I'd flip this question on it's head and look at Lamela as a case study in buying potential.
We all know that Willian was first choice for a creative no.10 in Summer 2013 and we all know what happened there. Lamela was an example of buying potential - we had a chance to sign this 21 year old Argentinian wonderkid who has scored 15 goals for Roma and was regarded as the natural replacement for Totti.
Had he stayed at Roma (injuries permitting) he would probably have gone on to score another 15 goals + possibly some in the Champions League, starred for Argentina in the World Cup and would have been talked about across Europe. Then in Summer 2014 he may well have been sold for £50m which we wouldn't have been able to afford even if we'd been his preferred option - We'd have been kicking ourselves for not gambling when he'd been available for £30m 12 months prior.
Every potential signing, particularly young players who have no experience of playing PL football, come with a large amount of risk attached. Lamela may still prove to be an incredible signing for us (for £30m) but Levy will quite naturally have reservations about spending big money for foreign potential again in the future in the same way that after Klinsmann left in '95 Sugar steered well clear of 'Carlos Kickaball's like Zola and Bergkamp when we could have got them.
I think that Levy gave his full trust to Baldini in Summer 2013 to recruit well from overseas markets and I doubt that he will ever have that trust in him again hence why he alludes to the £10 - £15m comfort zone of young English players - a policy that served us so well under Arnesen in 2004-5 (Robbo, Huddlestone, Dawson, Jenas, Lennon, Carrick etc) and then again between 2007 - 2009 (Bale, Walker, Rose).
Dele Alli is the next in line and time will tell how effective he becomes but we do have a decent success rate when buying from this market. In the last 10 years who would you say had been our best signings (effect on the team and/or resale value.
There are eight general markets to buy players from:
Academy products:
Finally we have started to produce higher quality players from the Academy and started to use them in the first team. Kane, Mason, Townsend, Bentaleb are integral members of the first team squad and will hopefully be joined by Pritchard and Onomah in the next 12 months. Even the likes of Stephen Kelly, Jamie O'Hara and Livermore have been sold for decent amounts of money to reinvest into the academy. Only Poch and Sherwood have really given these players a decent chance. Not since Venables have any of our managers built a transfer strategy around using youth team players.
British potential (players, aged 21 with no or limited PL experience. The risk is relatively low as they will have resale value).
e.g. Dawson, Lennon, Huddlestone, Walker, Rose, Bale. These players have all enhanced our squad to varying degrees even the likes of Davenport, Reid, Naughton and Gunter have served a purpose as squad players and/or been sold at a profit.
With Dier being one of only a couple of positive lights this season (as new signings) and Dele Alli already coming in I see this being a market we will focus our attentions on again.
British (based) Established (players aged 21-29 with PL experience. They should be able to hit the ground running but represent risk due to resale value)
This seems to be an area we've struggled in when spending big (£12m +). Bent and Bentley were huge disappointments (although Bent was sold at a profit).
This was a market that Harry liked to dabble into - Crouch, Parker, Defoe, Kaboul, Adebayor, Kranjcar, Bassong for modest fees all made short-term improvements for us. Levy was able to sell several of these at a profit. Prior to that Ferdinand, Ziege and Sherwood are good examples.
I think it unlikely we will sign many players from this market anytime soon.
British (based) experienced players (players aged 30+ with PL experience. Usually available for little to no outlay).
These signings are few and far between. Friedel is the only recent example I can think of. Going back a little further Teddy and Poyet arrived in 2001 and fulfilled a very short-term purpose.
With such a young squad this would be a good market to identify a signing from. I really think Cambiasso could do for us what Davids did for a season in 2005-06.
Foreign potential (players aged 21 or below playing below the A grade European leagues - Germany, Spain or Italy)
When we first signed Kaboul he fitted into this category and it took him a couple of years (and a move to Pompey) to get to grips with English football. Dervitte springs to mind.
This is not a market we have done well in. Yedlin is the only current example in the squad (and may just be here to sell t-shirts in America!)
Foreign based moderate players (aged 21+ for modest fee - £5m or less)
Examples of these would be Pedro Mendes, Stalteri, Tainio or more latterly Stambouli, Holtby or Sandro)
These players rarely establish themselves in the team and tend to have gone within 2 years rarely for a profit.
Foreign based established players (players aged 21+ for £6m +)
Modric, Lloris and Berbatov are the shining stars from this group and hopefully Eriksen and Vertonghen will follow. Seemingly a favourite market for Commoli and Baldini. We have spent £15m on Pav, Paulinho, and Lamela and £7m + on Chriches, Chadli, Fazio, Gomes, Capoue.
This category is very hit and miss for us with as many major flops as successes. However it appears to be a popular one for us.
The Foreign superstar (highly established 23 years + signing for large amount of money - £20m +)
Players with huge reputations who are expected to make an immediate impact. Soldado was probably the first of this type we have signed since Rebrov. Enough said!
Veteran Foreign players (aged 30 +)
We have had modest success from this market with Davids and Naybet providing guidance to younger players. Not an area we have focused on in recent windows.
