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OOMT: Spurs vs Woolwich Nomads

mudshark said:
Being brutally honest, we still don't convert enough of the chances we create. Everyone got all excited over the 34 opportunities created against Swansea, but I look at that and see a conversion rate of not much over six per cent. If that's your typical level, you are always going to be vulnerable to the sort of bad breaks we saw Saturday. We dominate games and dominate games and dominate games, but somehow we still seem to end up scraping wins with Lloris having to pull off a last-gasp save to earn all the points ...or not.
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I do generally agree, we need to be more ruthless in front of goal. It's inexperience in my view, and we will improve.
Where I have a problem though is with these chances created stats. On Saturday Harry had a trundler, as did rose, Eriksen and Lamella had poor free kicks, and then Lamellas blocked chance that fell for Toby's goal. Are they all created chances? Because to be honest none of them were very good chances. In cases like this that a distorted stat that could be unfairly used to beat you to death.
With the exception of Lamellas blocked shot from the corner, all of these chances could have been worked a little differently to create a better opportunity. We rush to the chance to much, but as I say they will get better as they mature.
 
Agree on chance conversion. We should have done so much better this season. The game at the Emirates. The game at Goodison...my GHod the fact that we didn't win that was ridiculous such was our territorial advantage.

I don't know how we can improve it. Maybe it simply is inexperience. Which is maybe why Leceister are ahead. They have a great team spirit but have more experienced players who believe they are going to score every time they shoot. For our players, it still feels like sometimes a draw is OK or that they don't quite believe or know how to handle being so dominant. How many times this year have we heard the players say 'we need to take our chances'?
 
BrainOfLevy said:
Agree on chance conversion. We should have done so much better this season. The game at the Emirates. The game at Goodison...my GHod the fact that we didn't win that was ridiculous such was our territorial advantage.

I don't know how we can improve it. Maybe it simply is inexperience. Which is maybe why Leceister are ahead. They have a great team spirit but have more experienced players who believe they are going to score every time they shoot. For our players, it still feels like sometimes a draw is OK or that they don't quite believe or know how to handle being so dominant. How many times this year have we heard the players say 'we need to take our chances'?
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It's a strange one

We're rampant and dominant in so many games but it means nothing unless we put the ball in the net

All of our players are capable of scoring and nearly every player has scored so that a big thing

Kane also has great stats for shots and goals and he is our principle scorer so you would assume we were doing well

To refer to Leicester is valid but they have had unreal success for shots to goals to me (watching them, I may well be wrong statistically)
 
in isolation it's a bad thing but looking at the bigger picture i think it's better to be creating chances and looking to improve the number you put away than it is looking to improve on the number of chances you're creating - especially in a young team which should improve with experience.
 
BrainOfLevy said:
Agree on chance conversion. We should have done so much better this season. The game at the Emirates. The game at Goodison...my GHod the fact that we didn't win that was ridiculous such was our territorial advantage.

I don't know how we can improve it. Maybe it simply is inexperience. Which is maybe why Leceister are ahead. They have a great team spirit but have more experienced players who believe they are going to score every time they shoot. For our players, it still feels like sometimes a draw is OK or that they don't quite believe or know how to handle being so dominant. How many times this year have we heard the players say 'we need to take our chances'?
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I think you raise an interesting point, as Leicester do have experience with title challenges and playoff games, except those have been in the Championship.

When it comes to shots, I think we've been very, very unlucky at times. Let us not forget, a millimeter between us winning on Saturday and not, woodwork twice at Everton, we seem to hit the woodwork a lot (would love to see a 'woodwork' stat for the Prem - maybe I'm wrong?) but we aren't doing much wrong in fairness. Perhaps everyone is right and we are going to lament the second 'proper' striker (something I never believed honestly as we have goals everywhere) but even Leicester have Ulloa, Okazaki and Vardy. Ulloa has made a huge difference for them off the bench.

I agree, we are back to hearing 'we need to take our chances' but right now, we are creating more chances, and scoring more, than for many years.
The future feels very very bright.
 
billyiddo said:
in isolation it's a bad thing but looking at the bigger picture i think it's better to be creating chances and looking to improve the number you put away than it is looking to improve on the number of chances you're creating - especially in a young team which should improve with experience.
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Agree with this. The fact that we have multiple players able to get into scoring positions and create scoring opportunities is enormously important - it shows that confidence to have an attempt is not an issue. Beyond that it is a case of instilling a sense of composure and perfecting the finishing (and relying on opposition goalkeepers not to choose games against us to put in worldie performances). Of course, it's not that simple in practice, but if the chances are being created, there is something to work with. Experience plays a big part, and that will come with time.
 
BrainOfLevy said:
Agree on chance conversion. We should have done so much better this season. The game at the Emirates. The game at Goodison...my GHod the fact that we didn't win that was ridiculous such was our territorial advantage.

I don't know how we can improve it. Maybe it simply is inexperience. Which is maybe why Leceister are ahead. They have a great team spirit but have more experienced players who believe they are going to score every time they shoot. For our players, it still feels like sometimes a draw is OK or that they don't quite believe or know how to handle being so dominant. How many times this year have we heard the players say 'we need to take our chances'?
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Leicester's chance conversion rate this season is so freakishly high that it is difficult to explain it as anything other than a statistical anomaly that they cannot maintain. @scaramanga has spoken about this at length with numerous posters, so I may well leave the floor to him,save to say, if that is the benchmark that you are setting for us, you are likely to be disappointed.
 
milo said:
Leicester's chance conversion rate this season is so freakishly high that it is difficult to explain it as anything other than a statistical anomaly that they cannot maintain. @scaramanga has spoken about this at length with numerous posters, so I may well leave the floor to him,save to say, if that is the benchmark that you are setting for us, you are likely to be disappointed.
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I don't think anyone is expecting us to have the same conversion rate as Leicester, but if we just had the league average, we'd be golden. In terms of goals per shot attempted we're 7th. In terms of goals per shots on target we're 16th! If we matched last year's goals per shot on target, we'd be flying! (we were at 33%)

@scaramanga said a while ago that Leicester's stats are freakish and they should revert to the mean, but I'm still waiting for that to bloody happen. I'm also still waiting for our stats to revert to mean!

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alekaras said:
I don't think anyone is expecting us to have the same conversion rate as Leicester, but if we just had the league average, we'd be golden. In terms of goals per shot attempted we're 7th. In terms of goals per shots on target we're 16th! If we matched last year's goals per shot on target, we'd be flying! (we were at 33%)

@scaramanga said a while ago that Leicester's stats are freakish and they should revert to the mean, but I'm still waiting for that to bloody happen. I'm also still waiting for our stats to revert to mean!

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I notice Arsenal's stats are similar to ours.

I wonder if this is something to do with the opposition packing their own penalty areas against us. It may mean that our forwards are getting less time on the ball than other teams.
 
scaramanga said:
I notice Arsenal's stats are similar to ours.

I wonder if this is something to do with the opposition packing their own penalty areas against us. It may mean that our forwards are getting less time on the ball than other teams.
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Indeed they are, as they have done for a few years now...of course what has changed for us is that now we score a fudge load more goals than we used to despite this 'anti-football' way of playing, which is of enormous credit to Poch. I can only hope Leicester don't do a Greece...
 
milo said:
I don't think that he specified over what period
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That's the trouble with probability.

It can tell you how likely something is to happen, just not when. When you're talking about outlying data like this, all you can say is that the longer their run goes for, the less likely it is that continue.
 
scaramanga said:
That's the trouble with probability.

It can tell you how likely something is to happen, just not when. When you're talking about outlying data like this, all you can say is that the longer their run goes for, the less likely it is that continue.
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Just like when you flip a coin, the more times you get heads, the more likely that run will end and you'll get a tail.













Amirite Scara :D
 
scaramanga said:
I notice Arsenal's stats are similar to ours.

I wonder if this is something to do with the opposition packing their own penalty areas against us. It may mean that our forwards are getting less time on the ball than other teams.
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You got it. It's considerably easier to score from a counter (the way Leicester play) than when you are incessantly bombarding a wall from range.
 
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