Defense: Walker, SuperJan, Daws, Benny
I like the idea of Verts at DM, but I figure it's not appropriate to shuffle the backline at this stage of the season. Walker had a nightmare in the home fixture, but he's calmed down as the season's progressed. Dawson and BAE didn't experience the 4-2 which is a good thing imo, considering the defensive errors on display there by both defense and midfield (*cough* Livermore *cough*). LB is up the air but I prefer BAE even though I think he's prone to a mistake and not very productive in the final third - because I think he's one of our few players who consistently shows for the ball and tries to find possession. We're going to need much as we can because you do NOT want Mata, Hazard, Oscar and co to get on the ball!
Midfield: Parker, Holtby, Carroll
(Assuming Dembele is injured.) I strongly want to avoid starting Hudd against one of the most mobile, creative midfields in this league. As a sub with them dropping deeper then he is fine. As a starter, though - even with Sandro they ran rings around him last time around, as did Southampton in our last game. I would be extremely concerned if we did not have aggressive pressers there, with a disciplined DM a la Southampton, to deny them the time and space to slice us with throughballs again.
Parker and Holtby would have to be more disciplined than they have been this season, but I think this is actually easier to do with Carroll in the midfield beside them (if AVB is daring enough). I don't rate Carroll that hugely - like I said, I think he's well behind Joe Allen even - but I've watched his most recent games again (Basel, Fulham etc) and his ideas are often quite good, both in passing and movement, it's just that other players like Walker have not followed up on his one-twos. I used to think he passed backwards too often under the slightest pressure, but in more recent games he's gotten much more expansive and varying with his passing. He's consistently had the most passes, and the most forward passes, when on the pitch in his cameos. According to Sherwood he covers the second highest amount of ground in our squad. If AVB encourages him to be more aggressive and confident, I think the way he brings in fresh legs and an eagerness for the ball will make up for the fact he's even tinier than Oscar. Will he be tackled to death? Maybe. But at least he can run and nip at heels and make a nuisance of himself.
Mainly though, I think we just don't have other genuine options. Dembele probably cannot play at even 70%, Livermore shouldn't come near the starting XI, and the thought of Huddlestone against a midfield even more clever, dynamic, and potent than Southampton's terrifies me. The Saints were able to pressure our CBs into clumsy long balls and isolate our FBs (who our CBs had to turn to) because no one in midfield was constantly trying to make themselves available as an outlet. This can't happen again. Huddlestone is fine for me if Chelsea have decided to drop deep in the last twenty, but at the start I strongly suspect they will look to press the living crap out of us at home, in front of their baying fans, in a hugely important match against their rivals.
Attack: Siggy/Lennon, Ade, Bale
Siggy and Lennon are interchangeable for me in a possession sense (they get equal amounts of touches), it depends on where Bale wants to play and whether Lennon is truly fit. If he's RWF cutting in, Siggy can play left with instructions to maintain a wider position and pressure the Chelsea CB-RB space; with Ade likely dropping deep it's a bit 4-3-1-2 in attack. If Bale starts out LWF, then Lennon is a more natural right side - if released quickly he can spring another threat against their high line (see: the home game against them in Harry's first fight for fourth place, where we dropped deep and compact). The worry is that he can get isolated if our current midfielders are too slow to release him (hopefully alleviated by Holtby), and Lennon has traditionally taken time to return to sharpness from injury. We can't afford anyone low in energy for this game except Bale since he's impossible to leave out atm.
No matter who plays, the objectives from the front should be: cut out the easy ball from defense, get involved in midfield so we are not constantly under pressure, and create space/chances for Bale (Holtby seems to do the space part best actually). That means players can't stand around waiting for the final ball - we need to be aggressive in build up play, unlike Dempsey and Defoe. I acknowledge those two will occasionally score a big goal in the dying minutes of a game, but that means little to me if 99% of the time they were allowing our midfield to get ripped apart and destroying any chance we have of stringing together three passes in a row. I think having Ade and Siggy there is better in a defensive sense and would be better able to get Bale (read: our offense) on the ball.
If we couldn't match Chelsea then okay, let's just cause some scrambling and pray for Bale to save us. I think we can and *should* try to match them though, from top to bottom. At our best we have shown we are tough to break down and can force our way through with sheer willpower if not the most whimsical of imaginations. But if anything that's a better match-up against Chelsea, who've always managed to slap aside the prettier sides like Arsenal.
COYS