My mate gets Elliot's info sometimes so here we are !!!!!!
THIS WEEK’S HALF POINT EACH WAY TRANSATLANTIC DOUBLE is Graeme McDowell [Qatar] at 16/1, and Martin Laird [Phoenix Open] at 25/1 both at LA who go 1/4 odds the first 6 in both tournaments. The win double is 441/1 win and 35.25/1 place double. Next best at the same odds but w/o the first 6 place concession are BO, BS, BF/TO + B365.
THE COMMERCIAL BANK QATAR MASTERS - starts Thursday - .
The Tournament - This will be the 15th Qatar Masters and is the second leg of the three week ‘Middle East Swing’.
The Course - The Doha Course is 7,388 yards with a conventional par 72 with 4 par 5s [1st,9th,10th and 18th]. The par 3s are a tough test especially the 3rd hole. The fairways are of average width leading to firm, slopey grainy Bermuda grass greens. Water is a factor on 6 holes. The winning scores in the last 2 years have been 15 and 14 under par so this is not an easy course.
The Shamal wind - When the wind blows Doha provides a real test. The Shamal wind tends to get up in the afternoon so a very early opening round tee time can be a big advantage here - as it was last year. So an early start in R1 and an early afternoon start in R2 can be a big advantage.
Qualities Needed - The record here of the huge hitting Alvaro Quiros is W-2-2 and that suggests that the ‘bombers’ are hugely favoured. However, in the last two years the winners Robert Karlsson in 2010 was 14th for dr distance, and last year Thomas Bjorn was 36th at 288 yards so there can be little doubt that this event can be won by accurate iron play and good putting. Although debutants have played well here, course experience on this wind-exposed course is important.
The winners here have nearly all removed any ‘rust’ as they had played the previous week.
The Field - Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer head the market and there are US Tour raiders in Hunter Mahan, Jason Day and KJ Choi in a field that, although strong, is not as strong as the one last week in Abu Dhabi.
Bookies - SPBET have still to price up.
PLEASE NOTE - Ladbrokes go 1/4 odds 1-6 this week. Their odds are highlighted below.
Staking - Given the importance of tee times here the total stake is only 10 points - on 4 bets, all on players who played well last week in Abu Dhabi, at odds of 18/1, 14/1, 25/1 + yes 100/1.
SWERVING ALVARO QUIROS - The Spanish bomber has recent form figs here of 2-2-W, so clearly he’s very well suited here so he’d be an easy selection to give so why not back him?
In each of the last 3 years Quiros had played at least 4 rounds of competitive golf before playing really well here. In 2009 he finished 26th in Abu Dahbi and in 2010 he was 11th. and last year he played in both of the two weeks before Qatar with form figs of 23-8. Therefore this year will be the first time that he has played here after only two competitive rounds - that missed cut last week may well mean not only that his game is not sharp but that after just two rounds he may well still be ‘rusty’. So Yes he could well win again but I think this year there must be doubts.
NO 1 PICK - GRAEME McDOWELL - TWO POINTS EACH WAY - 18/1 CO, 16/1 LA + EVERYWHERE ELSE.
1. GMac had a stellar year in 2010 with 4 wins in the US Open [his first major], the Wales Open, Andalucia Masters at Valderrama, and the Chevron challenge. Last year was inevitably a year of Mental Let Down - however he showed good form towards the end of the year, finishing 3rd in the Dunhill Links, the WGC/HSBC + the Nedbank Challenge, and 11th in the Dubai World Challenge.
2. Last week in Abu Dhabi he finished strongly [69-68-68] to finish T3rd after he broke his driver in R1 which cost him at least two shots. He was ranked 5th GIR and 12th for putts per GIR so he’s in very good form.
3. His record here in the last five years is 4th in 2007 after a 68-68-67 finish, 20th in 2008 [R4 68],14th in 2010 [R2 67] + DNP in 2009 or 2011. So he has had plenty of experience and shown that he can score well here.
IN SUM - GMac is a top class player [WR 11], a proven winner who is in form, has played well here before and so looks a solid EW bet.
NO 2 PICK - THOMAS BJORN - ONE POINT EACH WAY - 25/1 BF/TO, SKY, B365 - only 20/1 BO, LA.
1. Thomas has been ‘Bjorn again’ in 2011 with 3 wins including his win in this tournament, and he won back to back at Crans and then Gleneagles in the autumn as well as finishing 4th in the Open in July.
2. Returning to action in 2012 he was 16th in the Volvo Champions and then impressed last week when T3rd in Abu Dhabi where he was ranked 1st for Dr Accuracy, 13th at 75% for GIR and 8th for putts per GIR. So we know he’s in form and after those back to back wins last autumn we know he keeps his form well.
3. He has plenty of course experience - in the last two years he was 8th in 2010 and he won by 4 shots here last year, when he was ranked 3rd for GIR and 4th for putts per GIR.
IN SUM - He is a 13 time winner, is course proven, in form and although defending a title is never easy he could well win again.
SERGIO GARCIA - ONE POINT EACH WAY - 14/1 LA, EVERYWHERE - only 13/1 BF/TO.
1. Sergio has a consistently solid record here. His form figs for the last four weeks are 7-7-24 and 9th last year he was 10th GIR, and was 10th for Dr Distance at 300 yards.
2. Last week Sergio was T12th after four sub par rounds, he was 13th GIR, and encouragingly he was 100% for sand saves getting up ’n’ down from all the six greenside bunkers he landed in.
3. Since that 9th place here last year, he has returned to his best form with back to back wins last autumn, with an improvement in his putting thanks to his ‘new’ claw-grip. His putting will be the key to his chance this week.
IN SUM - A proven winner of 10 European and 7 US tournaments Sergio has the course experience and the current form to win on a course well suited to his game. Let’s hope that he has a ’hot’ putter this week!
ROMAIN WATTEL - ONE POINT EACH WAY - 100/1 SKY, B365, BO, SJ, WH, CO - only 90/1BF/TO , 80/1 PP, LA.
1. This 20 year old French guy turned pro in Nov 2010 when he was the 3rd best amateur in the world. He had already won as an amateur on the Challenge Tour in 2010.
2. In 2011 he had two 5th place finishes in the Sth African and Spanish Opens, and had some good stats as he was 10th for Dr. Distance at 300 yards, 20th for putts per GIR + he hit 68% GIR. He ended the year well when 8th in the Castello and 19th at Valderrama.
3. Last week he caught the eye with a superb 69-69-69 finish [the same as Tiger and only a shot worse than the winner] to be 14th in Abu Dhabi, where he was 3rd at 300 yards for Dr Distance.
4. He played in this tournament last year finishing 59th but his 77-68-77-69 was a very promising course debut - those two rounds in the 60s show he’s suited here.
IN SUM - In an event that has regularly thrown up big priced players in the pay out places Romain looks worth a small EW ‘nibble’ at three figure odds.
