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Jesus

I’ve come to the conclusion that there is ‘proven in the Prem’ and ‘proven for Emirates Marketing Project in the Prem’. They are 2 very different things.

eg. Sterling would be a maximum 10 goal a season man anywhere outside the top 4 imo but they lauded him for a 17 goal return one season (with a few pens I think).

Having said that - Jesus would be the perfect back up for us. Plays central or wide, works hard, and is a happy bencher so shouldn’t kick off as long as he knows the script.

Re: Arsenal - I think we’ve seen his absolute maximum output at City with the chances they create so I don’t think it’s likely he goes on one and has a 25 goal season unless he plays all 38 games and gets on pens etc - therefore unlikely to hurt us by playing for them. Win win imo.
 
I'm not sure about Jesus - is his rep suffering because he gets infrequent game time at City or is he just not that good?
 
Benny_Lad said:
I’ve come to the conclusion that there is ‘proven in the Prem’ and ‘proven for Emirates Marketing Project in the Prem’. They are 2 very different things.

eg. Sterling would be a maximum 10 goal a season man anywhere outside the top 4 imo but they lauded him for a 17 goal return one season (with a few pens I think).

Having said that - Jesus would be the perfect back up for us. Plays central or wide, works hard, and is a happy bencher so shouldn’t kick off as long as he knows the script.

Re: Arsenal - I think we’ve seen his absolute maximum output at City with the chances they create so I don’t think it’s likely he goes on one and has a 25 goal season unless he plays all 38 games and gets on pens etc - therefore unlikely to hurt us by playing for them. Win win imo.
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Good take there in the final paragraph
 
billyiddo said:
I'm not sure about Jesus - is his rep suffering because he gets infrequent game time at City or is he just not that good?
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He's a striker in a team that doesn't play a striker, doesn't focus around a pivot.

Not saying I'm all in on Jesus, but City isn't built for a single goal scorer, it's effectively 6 midfielders overloading a box, and false 9's. Aguero was the only one to buck that consistently.

He's 25, over 230 games in UK, 55 for Brazil, under a 1 in 3 goal return.

He'd be a very different type of bench add for us, he should be fine to start games for us (he has for City) in rotation games, and potentially still has upside.

Still don't think it's likely/real, but outside of price, not a bad punt ..
 
I’m sure i put a goal to minutes ratio up ages ago and it proved he is a very effective player and scores fairly consistently for someone who rarely has a run of games.
 
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AjaxDeSuperYids said:
Could this also just be a tactic by us to up the price the goons have to pay?
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They have to pay the "not-in-the-CL" tax, too. I can see him going there, but it must be hard to take that step down in terms of trying to compete for the CL (not suggesting we would be better in that regard until we repeat top-4 again next season, but I don't think I will be able to stop rubbing it in).
 
Benny_Lad said:
I’ve come to the conclusion that there is ‘proven in the Prem’ and ‘proven for Emirates Marketing Project in the Prem’. They are 2 very different things.

eg. Sterling would be a maximum 10 goal a season man anywhere outside the top 4 imo but they lauded him for a 17 goal return one season (with a few pens I think).

Having said that - Jesus would be the perfect back up for us. Plays central or wide, works hard, and is a happy bencher so shouldn’t kick off as long as he knows the script.

Re: Arsenal - I think we’ve seen his absolute maximum output at City with the chances they create so I don’t think it’s likely he goes on one and has a 25 goal season unless he plays all 38 games and gets on pens etc - therefore unlikely to hurt us by playing for them. Win win imo.
Click to expand...

billyiddo said:
I'm not sure about Jesus - is his rep suffering because he gets infrequent game time at City or is he just not that good?
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He strikes me more as a player that suffers because he's now a great fit under Pep's system. And of course the competition he faces at City.

To me he looks the best when he has some space around a defender to attack, he's quick and a great dribler as well as a good enough finisher.

Pep ball they spend most of their time with 70+% possession against teams that sit back. With our fairly direct and at times rather counter attacking style I think he would fit in a lot better.

Set him up in the kind of situations we fairly regularly get Son and Kulusevski in and I think he would be a handful and more for most defenders. Set him up with a defender, cover and the only "right" decision being another pass (followed by 15 more) and he's not playing to his strengths.

Similarly would Kulusevski have done as well at City? No way imo.
 
Benny_Lad said:
I’ve come to the conclusion that there is ‘proven in the Prem’ and ‘proven for Emirates Marketing Project in the Prem’. They are 2 very different things.

eg. Sterling would be a maximum 10 goal a season man anywhere outside the top 4 imo but they lauded him for a 17 goal return one season (with a few pens I think).

Having said that - Jesus would be the perfect back up for us. Plays central or wide, works hard, and is a happy bencher so shouldn’t kick off as long as he knows the script.

Re: Arsenal - I think we’ve seen his absolute maximum output at City with the chances they create so I don’t think it’s likely he goes on one and has a 25 goal season unless he plays all 38 games and gets on pens etc - therefore unlikely to hurt us by playing for them. Win win imo.
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Raziel said:
He's a striker in a team that doesn't play a striker, doesn't focus around a pivot.

Not saying I'm all in on Jesus, but City isn't built for a single goal scorer, it's effectively 6 midfielders overloading a box, and false 9's. Aguero was the only one to buck that consistently.

He's 25, over 230 games in UK, 55 for Brazil, under a 1 in 3 goal return.

He'd be a very different type of bench add for us, he should be fine to start games for us (he has for City) in rotation games, and potentially still has upside.

Still don't think it's likely/real, but outside of price, not a bad punt ..
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His finishing is pretty poor. His XG numbers suggest he should have scored 18 more goals than he has. Considering the type of chances and the quality of the chances that City create I would be wary of signing him. We don't make the same number of chances as he gets at City and doesn't finish.

Sent from my XQ-BC72 using Fapatalk
 
Bishop said:
His finishing is pretty poor. His XG numbers suggest he should have scored 18 more goals than he has. Considering the type of chances and the quality of the chances that City create I would be wary of signing him. We don't make the same number of chances as he gets at City and doesn't finish.

Sent from my XQ-BC72 using Fapatalk
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So xG determines if a player is good enough now?
Does xG count blocked shots, world class saves long range shots etc?
 
Yiddo said:
So xG determines if a player is good enough now?
Does xG count blocked shots, world class saves long range shots etc?
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No Xg is a good determiner of a player's finishing ability. It does take into account the factors you stated. A better finisher scores despite them, a poorer finisher doesn't.

Jesus' Xg in the PL is 76.05 but he has only scored 58 goals.

Son in comparison has an xG of 69.04 but has scored 93 goals by comparison.

Kane has an xG of 158.85 but has scored 183 goals.

Both of them have significantly outscored their xg confirming what the eye test says, they are good finishers.

My eyes have also seen that Jesus misses a lot of chances and his XG numbers back that up. Maybe he comes here and significantly improves his finishing but he would need to do so as hes not going to get the same quality of chance here as he does at City and that is concerning because he's not a good finisher.

Sent from my XQ-BC72 using Fapatalk
 
Yiddo said:
So xG determines if a player is good enough now?
Does xG count blocked shots, world class saves long range shots etc?
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XG simply looks at certain variables around a scenario where a player takes a shot from (i.e. position taken from, how many opponents are between the player and the goal, whether the shot was first touch, second touch or after a dribble, good foot or weak foot, the type of pass into the player (length of pass and from where it was made) was the shot volley or not, whether it was a shot with the foot or a header, etc, etc. It then looks at how many goals were scored from similar types of chances to work out the percentage chance of a goal from that scenario. Of course it is not perfect but it is a decent measure of quality of chances that a team gets in a game.

It is slightly concerning if a striker underperforms his XG over a reasonable period of time as that suggests that they are worse than average at taking the chances they are presented with. Typically the best strikers tend to outperform their XG.
 
Bishop said:
No Xg is a good determiner of a player's finishing ability. It does take into account the factors you stated. A better finisher scores despite them, a poorer finisher doesn't.

Jesus' Xg in the PL is 76.05 but he has only scored 58 goals.

Son in comparison has an xG of 69.04 but has scored 93 goals by comparison.

Kane has an xG of 158.85 but has scored 183 goals.

Both of them have significantly outscored their xg confirming what the eye test says, they are good finishers.

My eyes have also seen that Jesus misses a lot of chances and his XG numbers back that up. Maybe he comes here and significantly improves his finishing but he would need to do so as hes not going to get the same quality of chance here as he does at City and that is concerning because he's not a good finisher.

Sent from my XQ-BC72 using Fapatalk
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And who does the stats for Xg? A non footballing person? Do they take into consideration the vision from the player not from the TV? The atmosphere, the pressure? The balance? I’m sure we have all sat watching a game on tv before and criticising a miss from the angle we see it from.
 
Gutter Boy said:
Nailed on this one.

Stigmata his arse.
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90Kw23.gif
 
parklane1 said:
Personally i do not take much notice of xG but it does have its fan boys.
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What it does for you is summarize hours worth of game time to provide you with a picture of one aspect of a player's abilities: his finishing. Of course you're always welcome to sit through hundreds of hours of match videos just to draw the same conclusion. :p
 
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