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Independence...
- Thread starter KerryDale
- Start date
The bookies know best - they disagree with you.
Informal exit polls seems to suggest that the No's have it..........though it's fair to say that it's by a sufficiently fine margin that we can't read too much into it.
jts1882
Dean Richards
I have a list of over 100 polls from the last 18 months. Three show a yes lead, one was criticised for leading questions, one was in the margin of error and turned out to be an outlier, and the third was an unusually small sample. Aggregating the polls from different companies at the same time always showed No majorities, regression analysis of the results from any polling company showed consistent No leads, with slight variations (to yes in the spring, no in the summer and yes recently). Some of the latter showed significant narrowing of the gap, others were more stable. All the polling evidence has favoured a No vote.
A Yes vote would need all the polls to be missing something systematically (e.g. Yes voters who don't usually vote and can't be contacted by pollsters) or for there to be a substantial change of opinion in the last few days (more than in the previous year). Only the numerically illiterate would have taken the outlier YouGov poll as an indicator of real changing opinion and leapt en masse on trains to Scotland. Unfortunately these people run the country.
A Yes vote would need all the polls to be missing something systematically (e.g. Yes voters who don't usually vote and can't be contacted by pollsters) or for there to be a substantial change of opinion in the last few days (more than in the previous year). Only the numerically illiterate would have taken the outlier YouGov poll as an indicator of real changing opinion and leapt en masse on trains to Scotland. Unfortunately these people run the country.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Those were the figures I was trying to find the other day, really shocked about them because I always thought Scotland was massive anti tory but they did alright really when you look at the figures. To be just 70,000 short of the SNP is shocking really.
jts1882
Dean Richards
Although close, those numbers don't quite match the numbers given on the following wikipedia page which gives the Scottish result for all general elections: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland
The SNP have outpolled the Conservatives since 1997 but not by that much.
Modric THFC
Jimmy McCormick
Really bad analysis of the numbers tbh in the media.
Yes 41% No 59% is so misleading.
They should use the total percentages.
Total registered voters 4,285,323. Looks likes its gonna be an 85% turnout overall so 3,642,525. 3642525
Yes votes so far: 0.73%
No votes so far: 1.07%
Still to come: 98.2%
Yes 41% No 59% is so misleading.
They should use the total percentages.
Total registered voters 4,285,323. Looks likes its gonna be an 85% turnout overall so 3,642,525. 3642525
Yes votes so far: 0.73%
No votes so far: 1.07%
Still to come: 98.2%
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
As @ now
1,539,920 YES
1,914,187 NO
1,539,920 YES
1,914,187 NO
spurs' magna carter
Ronnie Rosenthal
Wooooooohoooooo the Union is saved! Unassailable lead.
BBC News: With 31 out of the country's 32 council areas having declared after Thursday's vote, the 'No' side has an unassailable lead of 1,914,187 votes to 1,539,920.
This union, this great country, which has stood for more than 300 years whilst being the biggest change to mankind in 6000 years (industrial revolution) lives to fight another day. One very happy patriot, always seen myself to be British more than English.
Hopefully now we can see some federalism if not then at least a return to the Victorian model of towns/cities having greater powers.
BBC News: With 31 out of the country's 32 council areas having declared after Thursday's vote, the 'No' side has an unassailable lead of 1,914,187 votes to 1,539,920.
This union, this great country, which has stood for more than 300 years whilst being the biggest change to mankind in 6000 years (industrial revolution) lives to fight another day. One very happy patriot, always seen myself to be British more than English.
Hopefully now we can see some federalism if not then at least a return to the Victorian model of towns/cities having greater powers.
Reggie_Mentalist
Jamie Redknapp
Bring on the conspiracy theorists...
[video=youtube;GOZ5ywd2ckA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOZ5ywd2ckA[/video]
....and by complete magic, it's started already.
[video=youtube;kUR-HgAtwtg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUR-HgAtwtg&list=UUFjOi1ZpZVErr8EYxg8t1dQ[/video]
[video=youtube;GOZ5ywd2ckA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOZ5ywd2ckA[/video]
....and by complete magic, it's started already.
[video=youtube;kUR-HgAtwtg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUR-HgAtwtg&list=UUFjOi1ZpZVErr8EYxg8t1dQ[/video]
Gilzeantoscore
Justin Edinburgh
Ha, ha. :ross:
Have just heard that there might be a chance that down the track there could be a proposal for Scots, Welsh and Nth Ireland MPs not being able to vote In Westminster on English issues. Don't see how this could work re the convention that a government must be able to command a stabile majority. Under this scenario, a government might be able to form a majority on some issues, such as foreign affairs and defence, but not on others. Un-workable in my view.
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It would only be an issue under a Labour majority - essentially their post by which they must be first past would be 12? seats higher than the others.
K.D.D.D.D.Soc
Jack Jull
Wooooooohoooooo the Union is saved! Unassailable lead.
BBC News: With 31 out of the country's 32 council areas having declared after Thursday's vote, the 'No' side has an unassailable lead of 1,914,187 votes to 1,539,920.
This union, this great country, which has stood for more than 300 years whilst being the biggest change to mankind in 6000 years (industrial revolution) lives to fight another day. One very happy patriot, always seen myself to be British more than English.
Hopefully now we can see some federalism if not then at least a return to the Victorian model of towns/cities having greater powers.
Totally agree, our strength comes from our varied cultures and joint values.
Seedy Ron
Jimmy Neighbour
Well they'll have to come up with something, can hardly hand over all these powers to Scotland, as promised, but leave the West Lothian question as is, why would the English settle for that? Wales and NI will, rightly, want what Scotland gets too. My only worry is they've set themselves this timetable, or Gordon has, so they'll probably rush it through and balls it up.
Anyway, I'm personally very glad the Scots have decided to stay within the Union.
They're going to have to do something, as I'm fed up already of the Scots and Welsh and other moaning minorities dictating to us.
We have to put up with Scottish socialist tool boxes like George Galloway telling us English how to behave and what to do.
We don't have any say what goes on in Scotland and Wales and N. Ireland and to see Scotland hold the rest of the UK to randsom recently and fill the news with all the subsequent c*** winds me up.
We need a federal England with devolved powers to regional authorities and a greater balance of power. It annoys me that of the wealth generated by the country so much of it is centralised around London & the S. East. They give hand-outs to Scotland, Wales & N. Ireland to keep the rebellious celts happy but bypass the north of England which can rot as far as everyone else appears to be concerned.
They should stop pandering to Scotland and start looking closer to home, otherwise things will start to turn ugly as the rise of UKIP demonstrates.
You think the Union is stronger after today? Far from it as far as I'm concerned.
Gilzeantoscore
Justin Edinburgh
The only answer as I see it would be too create two tiers of government. Provincial assemblies for the Scots, Nth Irish and Welsh and English and a national assembly for the UK. Clearly there would need to be a written constitution which would dictate relative responsibilities and powers. Not an easy thing to achieve me thinks. With a federal structure, MP's from all parts of the UK could continue to vote on International issues, or any legislation affecting the whole nation.
Gilzeantoscore
Justin Edinburgh
The reality of the situation is the reverse. Scots only return 50 MPS and are swamped by English members and they are sick of Englishmen telling them what to do. Tory toolboxes at present.
monkeybarry
Tom Huddlestone
Then they should have left.
You cannot have it both ways - we are either the UK (with or without proportionate local powers ) or be a separate country.
The Scots chose to reject the latter, so now it's time to be an active and positive part of the union they have voted to stay part of,not just continue to moan.