Defending (1-goal) leads at the hour mark.....

[90sSpursBook]

With so much frustration over the way we defend (or don't defend) leads I thought I'd have a look at some data.

I've looked at any games since Jose took over in which we were leading by 1 goal after 60 minutes and what the outcome of the match was. During Jose's time this has occurred on 12 occasions.
(Fulham, Brentford, Wolves, C Palace, Man C, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Everton, Man U, Norwich (FAC), So'ton (FAC), Norwich, Wolves)

Of these 12 occasions we have WON 5, DRAWN 7, LOST 0 (of the 5 wins only 1 remained the same score) = 22 PTS

I've then gone back to look at the how we've done in the past in the same circumstance. Of the 12 occasions prior to that (all under Poch from Dec 2018 until Nov 2019):
(Sheff U, So'ton, Leicester, Arsenal, C Palace, So'ton, Dortmund, Dortmund, Leicester, Chelsea (LC), Wolves, Arsenal (LC)

WON 7, DRAWN 2, LOST 3 (3 of those wins retained the same score) - 23 POINTS

Going back to the 12 occurrences prior to that (Nov 2017 - Oct 2018)
West Ham, Cardiff, Brighton, Inter, Watford, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Juventus, Arsenal, Swansea, Brighton, Bournemouth

WON 9, DRAW 0, LOST 3 = 27 POINTS

This shows that under Jose we are less than 50% likely to win a game if winning by a single goal margin (after 60 mins) whereas not too long ago that win % was 75%. However, we haven't managed to lose any games under him whilst under both previous periods we lost 25% of the time.

Probably tells you something about the way Jose sets us up. Less likely to lose, but less likely to win too.

There's all sorts of subjective measures to apply to this - relative strength of opposition, quality of our team, tactics in play, fortune/misfortune etc. And sure 60th minute is an arbitrary moment to start from.

With so many contrasting thoughts about the merits of Jose's tactics thought it would be worth presenting some hard data to reflect upon.

When I get the chance and I'll have a look at how other teams compare.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

With so much frustration over the way we defend (or don't defend) leads I thought I'd have a look at some data.

I've looked at any games since Jose took over in which we were leading by 1 goal after 60 minutes and what the outcome of the match was. During Jose's time this has occurred on 12 occasions.
(Fulham, Brentford, Wolves, C Palace, Man C, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Everton, Man U, Norwich (FAC), So'ton (FAC), Norwich, Wolves)

Of these 12 occasions we have WON 5, DRAWN 7, LOST 0 (of the 5 wins only 1 remained the same score) = 22 PTS

I've then gone back to look at the how we've done in the past in the same circumstance. Of the 12 occasions prior to that (all under Poch from Dec 2018 until Nov 2019):
(Sheff U, So'ton, Leicester, Arsenal, C Palace, So'ton, Dortmund, Dortmund, Leicester, Chelsea (LC), Wolves, Arsenal (LC)

WON 7, DRAWN 2, LOST 3 (3 of those wins retained the same score) - 23 POINTS

Going back to the 12 occurrences prior to that (Nov 2017 - Oct 2018)
West Ham, Cardiff, Brighton, Inter, Watford, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Juventus, Arsenal, Swansea, Brighton, Bournemouth

WON 9, DRAW 0, LOST 3 = 27 POINTS

This shows that under Jose we are less than 50% likely to win a game if winning by a single goal margin (after 60 mins) whereas not too long ago that win % was 75%. However, we haven't managed to lose any games under him whilst under both previous periods we lost 25% of the time.

Probably tells you something about the way Jose sets us up. Less likely to lose, but less likely to win too.

There's all sorts of subjective measures to apply to this - relative strength of opposition, quality of our team, tactics in play, fortune/misfortune etc. And sure 60th minute is an arbitrary moment to start from.

With so many contrasting thoughts about the merits of Jose's tactics thought it would be worth presenting some hard data to reflect upon.

When I get the chance and I'll have a look at how other teams compare.

What is an interesting comparison is teams drawing at that same mark and then winning
So covering those positions into 3 points
United have done it a lot lately... admittedly a dodgy penalty and two deflected goals have helped

 

[90291Spur]

With so much frustration over the way we defend (or don't defend) leads I thought I'd have a look at some data.

I've looked at any games since Jose took over in which we were leading by 1 goal after 60 minutes and what the outcome of the match was. During Jose's time this has occurred on 12 occasions.
(Fulham, Brentford, Wolves, C Palace, Man C, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Everton, Man U, Norwich (FAC), So'ton (FAC), Norwich, Wolves)

Of these 12 occasions we have WON 5, DRAWN 7, LOST 0 (of the 5 wins only 1 remained the same score) = 22 PTS

I've then gone back to look at the how we've done in the past in the same circumstance. Of the 12 occasions prior to that (all under Poch from Dec 2018 until Nov 2019):
(Sheff U, So'ton, Leicester, Arsenal, C Palace, So'ton, Dortmund, Dortmund, Leicester, Chelsea (LC), Wolves, Arsenal (LC)

WON 7, DRAWN 2, LOST 3 (3 of those wins retained the same score) - 23 POINTS

Going back to the 12 occurrences prior to that (Nov 2017 - Oct 2018)
West Ham, Cardiff, Brighton, Inter, Watford, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Juventus, Arsenal, Swansea, Brighton, Bournemouth

WON 9, DRAW 0, LOST 3 = 27 POINTS

This shows that under Jose we are less than 50% likely to win a game if winning by a single goal margin (after 60 mins) whereas not too long ago that win % was 75%. However, we haven't managed to lose any games under him whilst under both previous periods we lost 25% of the time.

Probably tells you something about the way Jose sets us up. Less likely to lose, but less likely to win too.

There's all sorts of subjective measures to apply to this - relative strength of opposition, quality of our team, tactics in play, fortune/misfortune etc. And sure 60th minute is an arbitrary moment to start from.

With so many contrasting thoughts about the merits of Jose's tactics thought it would be worth presenting some hard data to reflect upon.

When I get the chance and I'll have a look at how other teams compare.

The big mistake you've made is blaming Jose for 'setting us up' to [lay that way. He's been very clear that he didn't set us up to play that way and that it was the fault of the players. And of course, like with Dele's flick against Stoke, that 8 passes later lead to a goal, I'm sure he's publicly criticized the whole team for not following orders.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

The big mistake you've made is blaming Jose for 'setting us up' to [lay that way. He's been very clear that he didn't set us up to play that way and that it was the fault of the players. And of course, like with Dele's flick against Stoke, that 8 passes later lead to a goal, I'm sure he's publicly criticized the whole team for not following orders.

17 passes

 

[billyiddo]

17 passes

That went all the way back to their keeper as well

 

[metalgear]

Causality or association?
I think we lose more with Dier as CB. Why didn't Poch play him there?
Also our defensive coaches are DIFFERENT.

If just looking at Jose you can to include matches at Chelsea, RM and Inter and you might find things very different.


Sent from my SM-T865 using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Bedfordspurs]

That went all the way back to their keeper as well

Yep
About 30 seconds too IIRC

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Causality or association?
I think we lose more with Dier as CB. Why didn't Poch play him there?
Also our defensive coaches are DIFFERENT.

If just looking at Jose you can to include matches at Chelsea, RM and Inter and you might find things very different.


Sent from my SM-T865 using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Poch did
We played a season with him there
He also had him drop into there whilst playing CM
We’re not conceding more than anyone
The issue is if we ain’t attacking we’re defending as the midfield can’t keep the ball
So the defence eventually concedes

 

[Bedfordspurs]

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/amp/fea...reline-at-tottenham?__twitter_impression=true

Thai kinda works with your thread

 

[Finney Is Back]

Poch did
We played a season with him there
He also had him drop into there whilst playing CM
We’re not conceding more than anyone
The issue is if we ain’t attacking we’re defending as the midfield can’t keep the ball
So the defence eventually concedes

No midfield can consistently keep the ball when forced to play in their own third with only a single (marked) player ahead of them to receive it

 

[Bedfordspurs]

No midfield can consistently keep the ball when forced to play in their own third with only a single (marked) player ahead of them to receive it

No
But no midfield can keep the ball when their scared of it

 

[spasm]

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/amp/fea...reline-at-tottenham?__twitter_impression=true

that pic is so feckin depressing...

 

[90291Spur]

17 passes

Thanks for the correction. Dele got off lightly for his horrific error that lead directly to that goal. And it was a goal with life changing consequences for the club and everyone associated with it.

 

[90sSpursBook]

you can imagine my nerves and trepidation when Sheff U scored to reduce our deficit to 1 goal just before the hour mark!

 

[Bedfordspurs]

you can imagine my nerves and trepidation when Sheff U scored to reduce our deficit to 1 goal just before the hour mark!

But we had players on the pitch that were ok with the ball abs it showed
Big difference to those other games

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

But we had players on the pitch that were ok with the ball abs it showed
Big difference to those other games

But realistically all our players should be alright on the ball, otherwise we are saying that all those teams that look comfortable knocking the ball about have better players than us?

Plus Sheffield United have 5 points, which would suggest theyre not much of a threat this season.

 

[billyiddo]

But realistically all our players should be alright on the ball, otherwise we are saying that all those teams that look comfortable knocking the ball about have better players than us?

Plus Sheffield United have 5 points, which would suggest theyre not much of a threat this season.

They're on course to be the worst team in PL history

 

[Diamond Lights]

With so much frustration over the way we defend (or don't defend) leads I thought I'd have a look at some data.

I've looked at any games since Jose took over in which we were leading by 1 goal after 60 minutes and what the outcome of the match was. During Jose's time this has occurred on 12 occasions.
(Fulham, Brentford, Wolves, C Palace, Man C, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Everton, Man U, Norwich (FAC), So'ton (FAC), Norwich, Wolves)

Of these 12 occasions we have WON 5, DRAWN 7, LOST 0 (of the 5 wins only 1 remained the same score) = 22 PTS

I've then gone back to look at the how we've done in the past in the same circumstance. Of the 12 occasions prior to that (all under Poch from Dec 2018 until Nov 2019):
(Sheff U, So'ton, Leicester, Arsenal, C Palace, So'ton, Dortmund, Dortmund, Leicester, Chelsea (LC), Wolves, Arsenal (LC)

WON 7, DRAWN 2, LOST 3 (3 of those wins retained the same score) - 23 POINTS

Going back to the 12 occurrences prior to that (Nov 2017 - Oct 2018)
West Ham, Cardiff, Brighton, Inter, Watford, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Juventus, Arsenal, Swansea, Brighton, Bournemouth

WON 9, DRAW 0, LOST 3 = 27 POINTS

This shows that under Jose we are less than 50% likely to win a game if winning by a single goal margin (after 60 mins) whereas not too long ago that win % was 75%. However, we haven't managed to lose any games under him whilst under both previous periods we lost 25% of the time.

Probably tells you something about the way Jose sets us up. Less likely to lose, but less likely to win too.

There's all sorts of subjective measures to apply to this - relative strength of opposition, quality of our team, tactics in play, fortune/misfortune etc. And sure 60th minute is an arbitrary moment to start from.

With so many contrasting thoughts about the merits of Jose's tactics thought it would be worth presenting some hard data to reflect upon.

When I get the chance and I'll have a look at how other teams compare.

Thought this was some good work btw thanks for posting. Think the other issue is being 1-0 up against teams considered lower quality than us, all similar teams and we've had similar outcomes.

Personally I think this is 100% tactical instructions and not solely on players, it's happened too often in exactly same circumstances each time


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Thought this was some good work btw thanks for posting. Think the other issue is being 1-0 up against teams considered lower quality than us, all similar teams and we've had similar outcomes.

Personally I think this is 400% tactical instructions and not solely on players, it's happened too often in exactly same circumstances each time


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Yeah
I mean the players have said it’s not tactics which is odd they have come out and said that
Maybe their comments are tactical

 

[Diamond Lights]

Yeah
I mean the players have said it’s not tactics which is odd they have come out and said that
Maybe their comments are tactical

Ha, erm, what do you expect them to come out and say? Hardly going to say out publicly it's a tactical instruction are they!? No you're right i'm sure the things they're saying publicly are 100% the same things straight from the dressing room. Definitely no filter provided.

Must just be a coincidence we've gone 1-0 up and sat back against Wolves, Palace, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Fulham and then conceded in the last 15 mins of the game. 4 times in 16 matches. A coincidence.

Surprised it's not happened to any other team.