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Coronavirus
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
This would make good sense if there is no reinfection or If this was not a fast mutating virus.
There are, and it is.
Question: are the vaccines more or less potent in stopping reinfection then catching the virus is?
I will watch and reply after
I did post a link to another study (from liverpool i believe). The longer gap between doses not only gave more anti bodies but more tcells that produce antibodies. So it looks like the uk will have better protection and for longer, than countries that only had a 3 week gap.
Also az although producing less anti bodies seem to produce more tcells.
I watched that and it was not relevant to the questions I asked you.
Reinfection is impossible. We don't know how many and who were infected in the first wave.
The percentage numebers (16% jan...) are the amount of protection.
That means if you have 100% chance of catching it.
If in israel you had your vax in jan
your chance of getting symptomatic infection is reduced by 16%.
Severe...
The uk your chance of getting infected is 88% lower with a vaccine than without.
For severe illness it is reduced by 96%.
That means that for every 100 people infected and getting severe illness not vaccinated.
If they were vaccinated it would be 4.
Reinfection Is impossible???
Where in hell do you get that? Even @scaramanga admits that Reinfection is possible but not prevalent. I despute that its not prevalent. But absolutely reject that its impossible.
You seem to confuse my stance. I'm absolutely not anti vax... please everyone get the vax.
My key questions which you have not answered are:
1. Does vaccination prevent infection (at any level of severity) more than catching and recovering from the virus? And visa versa?
2. Does vaccination prevent long covid?
3. How is the evolutionary advantages of a virus mutating in to a weaker version of its self, effected by the prevalence of a vaccine(s) that does a good/great job of preventing severe illness but not a good job of preventing the spread of the virus? Especially if it is a fast mutating virus and it is allowed (encouraged) to multiple in the summer?
Telling how many reinfections is impossible as we don't know how many were infected in the first place. (Little drunk should have worded it better).
Never thought you were anti vax.
Your first question was answered in the video and my last post.
2/ it seems to. Also seems to relieve long covid symptoms but we are waiting peer reviewed studies.
3/ a virus doesn't choose how it mutates. They are random. A mutation that makes it more successful will mean that strain becomes dominant. That could mean being able to replicate quicker, stay airborne longer, evade immune responses, survive in harsher environments. For some very lethal viruses it means keeping the host alive longer.
Covid seems to be contagious from day 2, you get symptoms day 5. You don't die for a month or longer (vast majority survive). So mutations that are less damaging to the host haven't had an advantage over others. So although there were probably some, they haven't overtaken the more transmissable strains.
As for will a strain that is better at getting past immunity develop. Yes it will, with vaccine or without. Our immune system will adapt aswell.
The difference between this and a cold. Is this was a novel (new) virus our immune systems didn't know. Now they do. So for the forseable (next couple of hundred years) our immune systems and the virus will battle it out. Like the 200 or so cold viruses or flu. As with flu we might have boosters.
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1. Maybe I'm being dumb (it's definitely a possibility) please explain how it was explained in the first video, as I don't see it.
2. Fair.
3. Of course viruses do not 'think' about the most advantageous way to mutate. But this I true of all mutations and evolution, even those that made humans.
This is really key and why covid 19 could potentially be massive more devastating then other infections. If you can spread the virus from day 2 but not get symptoms till day 5, where does the evolutionarily advantageous lie, especially considering the vaccines? This is a straight up question as I haven't got my head round the answer
Ok reinfection from catching the virus is about 1% of cases (per the twitter post i requoted). But we really can't tell because for the beginning of the pandemic we weren't testing, there are loads of asymptomatic.
It's impossible to tell. People have been vaccinated aswell. You'd have to find a population that had been infected. Then reinfected. Get that number.
Then get a population that hadn't been infected. Vaccinate them. Then see how many got infected.
Then compare the 2.
I don't get the last bit. Are you asking how it will mutate next?
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There are what 600,000 estimated infected in the uk at the moment. The majority of us will have breathed in some particles in the last month or two. (Especially with delta and the euros.) Or over the last 16 months. Some of us numerous times. The majority of us will have been vaccinated aswell.
June 28th 92% of the whole population had antibodies. That would have gone up since. It is very unlikely you haven't been exposed already.
June 28th 92% of the whole population had antibodies. That would have gone up since. It is very unlikely you haven't been exposed already.
Obviously no one can answer how the virus would mutate next. I'm asking you to speculate what would the present conditions (espicially how the vaccines are working) provide the virus with the most advantageous path of mutation. As I cant really get my head round that.
Vaccines won't give any advantage. The vaccines don't attack the virus. They teach our immune system to recognise it. Our bodys fight it.
So vaccine or no. The mutations will be the same. They will try to spread faster, further, survive in harsher conditions and get past our immune system. The one that does it best will become dominant.
If they can't and our immune system becomes too strong. Then you might see it go the way of tb, measels, mumps...
Or just be another of the 200 cold viruses.
Of course vaccines don't attack the virus... im not sure how you got that from my questions.
However I'm not sure you are correct with rest if your answer.
For example the Vaccines have concentrated on getting our immune system to recognise the spike protein. So if the viruse mutates its spike protein to an extent that its unrecognisable to our prepped immune system then it would have an evolutionary advantage over the other strains.
So as we are we putting evolutionary pressure on the virus to mutate its spike protein rather than weaken. What is the potential results of this?
The anti bodies recognise the spike proteins, one type of tcell recognises infected cells and destroys them.
The pfizer and moderna vaccines are better at creating antibodies. The az seems better at creating tcells.
So although pfizer and moderna are better at stopping symptomatic infection they are roughly the same as az at protecting from severe illness.
Again the virus mutates randomly. So if it mutates in a way to get past vaccines that strain will become dominant. If it doesn't it will die. So far none of the variants have mutated to an extent that vaccines are redundant. It is possible though.
What would be the effect of this? It would be like flu, developing vaccines each year geared to the dominant strain. With booster shots.
Seems some us states have come across a genius way to stop the surge in covid cases. Don't report them. This after the attempt at testing less people failed.
https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-f9c58c50f565e707be9bedfa9a82319e
https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-f9c58c50f565e707be9bedfa9a82319e
