LutonSpurs
Eric Dear
I know some of you talked absolute BS about herd immunity for months. Another reminder how it was absolute BS and the crap Sweden model was a disaster.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
SteveAWOL
Barry Daines
I see that despite 76% of Manaus’ population being infected last autumn they still didn’t achieve herd immunity.
Although Bolsonaro probably thinks that’s fake news.
What is it you're reading from that thread?
Are you saying herd immunity can't be reached through infection? The author states the precise opposite.
LutonSpurs
Eric Dear
That herd immunity with a vaccine can be achieved, without a vaccine it occurs with huge deaths and with wrecking a healthcare system. It is not complex. I find it astounding you cannot accept how woefully wrong you were on this.
So you're not denying that non-immunised herd immunity is effective then?
In which case, it simply comes down to a liberty vs cost preference. You and I are probably not going to find a middle ground there, but to suggest it doesn't work is disingenuous.
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
Really low vaccinations in the past few days, hope this is just a blip
LutonSpurs
Eric Dear
I did not say herd immunity without vaccination does not work. I said it was a crap idea and unmitigated disaster and that has now been proven in Brazil and Sweden. Achieving herd immunity with a vaccine stops health systems falling apart and it saves lives (the bit you do some dingdong wagging alpha male thing about and pretend not to care).
Actually I'm doing the "Protect the vulnerable and let the rest of us carry on" wagging thing that I have been for some time now.
markysimmo
Johnny nice-tits
England's vaccine rollout will be "considerably slower" until the end of July and could drop to 2.5 million doses a week, the government's scientific advisers have said.
Previous modelling for SAGE said the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses was predicted to reach up to 3.9 million doses a week.
But in the latest paper, published on Monday, scientists expect to deliver 2.7 million doses per week in England until the end of July and 2 million after that date.
It says: "The central rollout scenario provided by the Cabinet Office is considerably slower."
Another scenario could see slightly fewer doses, at 2.5 million doses a week until the end of July then 2 million after that, the paper said.
The latest NHS England data shows 3.5 million people were given a dose in the week up to 28 March, up from 3 million the week before and 1.7 million the week before that.
The slower rollout would mainly affect those under 50 years old, the government's advisers added.
Fewer under-50s would have had the vaccine by the time step three and step four of the roadmap out of lockdown comes around, the paper says.
Step three of the roadmap is currently proposed for 17 May and will see indoor mixing allowed and pubs and restaurants to reopen inside.
Step four is the final stage of unlocking, planned for 21 June, when all restrictions are set to be lifted.
The modelling paper adds: "The lower level of population immunity means the subsequent resurgence is larger but only marginally so, given the differences in rollout speed are relatively small."
The Department for Health and Social Care warned in mid-March there would be a vaccine shortage from 29 March and second doses would be prioritised over first doses in April as a result.
Those aged 49 and younger should expect their first jab from May, going down the age groups by 10 years each time, the department said.
Part of the issue is a reduction in supply from AstraZeneca, including from its partner plant in India.
On Tuesday morning, vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi confirmed the Moderna vaccine, which has been approved for a while, will arrive in the UK "around the third week in April" and more would come in May.
However, Downing Street sources would not say whether the new vaccine would plug the shortfall.
Two other vaccines, Novavax and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), are yet to be approved for use in the UK, although Boris Johnson confirmed last week that Novavax is already being manufactured in the UK.
A Department of Health spokesman said: "Our vaccination programme continues to make exceptional progress - with over 37 million jabs administered so far.
"Vaccine supply was always going to vary over time, but we are on course to offer a first vaccine dose to those aged 50 and over by mid-April, and all adults by the end of July."
Previous modelling for SAGE said the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses was predicted to reach up to 3.9 million doses a week.
But in the latest paper, published on Monday, scientists expect to deliver 2.7 million doses per week in England until the end of July and 2 million after that date.
It says: "The central rollout scenario provided by the Cabinet Office is considerably slower."
Another scenario could see slightly fewer doses, at 2.5 million doses a week until the end of July then 2 million after that, the paper said.
The latest NHS England data shows 3.5 million people were given a dose in the week up to 28 March, up from 3 million the week before and 1.7 million the week before that.
The slower rollout would mainly affect those under 50 years old, the government's advisers added.
Fewer under-50s would have had the vaccine by the time step three and step four of the roadmap out of lockdown comes around, the paper says.
Step three of the roadmap is currently proposed for 17 May and will see indoor mixing allowed and pubs and restaurants to reopen inside.
Step four is the final stage of unlocking, planned for 21 June, when all restrictions are set to be lifted.
The modelling paper adds: "The lower level of population immunity means the subsequent resurgence is larger but only marginally so, given the differences in rollout speed are relatively small."
The Department for Health and Social Care warned in mid-March there would be a vaccine shortage from 29 March and second doses would be prioritised over first doses in April as a result.
Those aged 49 and younger should expect their first jab from May, going down the age groups by 10 years each time, the department said.
Part of the issue is a reduction in supply from AstraZeneca, including from its partner plant in India.
On Tuesday morning, vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi confirmed the Moderna vaccine, which has been approved for a while, will arrive in the UK "around the third week in April" and more would come in May.
However, Downing Street sources would not say whether the new vaccine would plug the shortfall.
Two other vaccines, Novavax and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson), are yet to be approved for use in the UK, although Boris Johnson confirmed last week that Novavax is already being manufactured in the UK.
A Department of Health spokesman said: "Our vaccination programme continues to make exceptional progress - with over 37 million jabs administered so far.
"Vaccine supply was always going to vary over time, but we are on course to offer a first vaccine dose to those aged 50 and over by mid-April, and all adults by the end of July."
Robspur12
Nick Barmby
Really interesting thanks for posting mate. So tragic for Brazilians that they have a Trump clone in charge.
I don’t think he’s being disingenuous at all. He’s clearly saying that the point of achieving any form of immunity is to avoid deaths.
If you’re suggesting ‘herd immunity’, which causes a high level of death is an effective way of preventing high levels of death, whilst skipping over the somewhat inconvenient high levels of death, then surely that’s actually more disingenuous?
LutonSpurs
Eric Dear
That hasn't worked anywhere. And it would not have worked here. I once felt it was possible but I now realise society isn't built like this. Vulnerable people live with other people. The disease would have got to them eventually.
Mikey10
Pedro Mendes
Ah. That’ll be the thing which has been discounted as impossible to implement by practically every creditable scientist, and which hasn’t been attempted by a single government anywhere in the world desperate to kick start its economy.
Makes sense.
Mikey10
Pedro Mendes
Continuing good news from Israel, but reasons to continue to be cautious from Chile.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-one-back-in-lockdown?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-one-back-in-lockdown?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
AuroRaman
Chris Armstrong
Either way, you’re wrong.
I'm saying that the point of any form of herd immunity is to return to a normal life.
Either way gets us there.
Then the household has to choose whether to take the risk or not. Most importantly it's their choice.
An unfortunate side-effect of being me is a constant frustration at the lack of foresight and ambition in normal people.
It would be a first and therefore very unlikely