BLOG - IS JOSE IN THE LAME DUCK ZONE?

[Raziel]

Good research and post. I believe we as fans overrate the quality and depth of the current Spurs squad. On paper it is difficult to see where ANY of our players is currently top in the EPL in their position.

IMHO this is Jose's first full season. I am personally willing to give him 2 to 3 years.

You have a better striker in the PL than Kane?

I agree with the overrated comment, but I'd actually say there are very good players in the squad, for me
- Kane, Son, Ndombele, Reguilon, PEH, Lloris would find a place in most squads in the league (maybe not always instant first 11, but they would compete for it)
- Davies, Dier, Sanchez, Winks, Doherty, Sissoko are not good enough for us, and the fact that they pretty much all sit in the back line and base of midfield shows the problem.

To the OP, it's a bit of picking the points you want and ignoring circumstance
- Liverpool just lost 3 games in a row at home (they hadn't lost one in 60+ games IIRC), is Klopp in lame duck zone?
- City, Pool, Chelsea, Scum, United have all had extended brick runs this season
- If you look through those results that you reference, I'd point out some significant differences that you have ignored, i.e. most of those managers lost multiple games against teams that losing to were "shock results", and several of them were hammerings. If you look at our bad results under Jose this season, Brighton is the real standout brick result (and they went on to beat Pool right after us at Pool), no hammerings, yes games where we have seemed out of ideas, but not games where we have just rolled over and got fudged by 3,4,5 goals or more.

Could it all go wrong from here? = always, but to say at 4 points of CL spots and still in 4 competitions in February is a lame duck zone is click baity to say the least.

 

[Pirate55]

Ultimately, his time will be judged on success. He is a manager who demands success and it is the metric by which it is fair to judge him. If he brings us the Europa League (CL place with that obviously) then he has done what it said on the tin. If he fails to get top 4 but wins the Carabou Cup, that is not GHod enough for me personally. We would then be in the arena of "success definition".
Mine is top 4 and a trophy OR a trophy which get us into CL.
And if we are to be fair in judging him, then he needs the time to the end of the season to either achieve or not.

I agree. Talk of him being sacked before the end of the season, in my opinion, is just that . Talk. I think Levy will judge his "Success or otherwise" at the end of the season at the earliest. I suspect virtually whatever happens this season , he will get a summer transfer window and probably next season too. We need to get rid of Hitchens and overhaul our entire recruitment process, which has been so poor for so long now.

 

[Raziel]

I agree. Talk of him being sacked before the end of the season, in my opinion, is just that . Talk. I think Levy will judge his "Success or otherwise" at the end of the season at the earliest. I suspect virtually whatever happens this season , he will get a summer transfer window and probably next season too. We need to get rid of Hitchens and overhaul our entire recruitment process, which has been so poor for so long now.

So, agree re end of season and most likely next season as well

Not sure I agree our recruitment has been poor, last windows have given us PEH, Reguilon, Vinicius, Bergwijn, Gio and Ndombele, 5 first team starters plus the first backup striker with promise in fudging forever. To me Bale was always a risk and the only DOA I see is Doherty.

What has to be clear is number 1 priority is a CB, with a CM and Lloris replacement not too far distant as well

 

[90sSpursBook]

You have a better striker in the PL than Kane?


To the OP, it's a bit of picking the points you want and ignoring circumstance
- Liverpool just lost 3 games in a row at home (they hadn't lost one in 60+ games IIRC), is Klopp in lame duck zone?
- City, Pool, Chelsea, Scum, United have all had extended brick runs this season
- If you look through those results that you reference, I'd point out some significant differences that you have ignored, i.e. most of those managers lost multiple games against teams that losing to were "shock results", and several of them were hammerings. If you look at our bad results under Jose this season, Brighton is the real standout brick result (and they went on to beat Pool right after us at Pool), no hammerings, yes games where we have seemed out of ideas, but not games where we have just rolled over and got fudged by 3,4,5 goals or more.

Could it all go wrong from here? = always, but to say at 4 points of CL spots and still in 4 competitions in February is a lame duck zone is click baity to say the least.

You make some really important points - as ever the devil is in the detail and you also have to try and recall some of the circumstance and context around each situation. I've tried to pick up some of these within the retrospective narratives for example under AVB the style of football was dire (though very different approach to what we're watching at the moment) and then we started getting absolute pastings. Under Jol there was always the feeling that he didn't have the same optimism in the squad as the board did about its ability to smash the top 4 ceiling.

Currently there is a huge amount of context that the data alone doesn't reference - the impact of COVID and the knock on effects of player conditioning through a minimal off and pre-season and then the regularity of games. There is also the macro-climate and the number of crazy results and terrible runs of form all our adversaries have suffered. And of course, the relatively short period of time Jose has been in charge and the obvious limitations of the squad already cited (lack of quality CB options). Then additionally the financial and emotional investment put into getting Jose in the first place means that Levy may be more patient this time around.

However, what the data does show is that whenever any manager under Levy has overseen a poor return of form over a 10-game period (sure - this is just an arbitrary number) they don't get very long to put things right and if they don't - regardless of contract, reputation or previous credit they get the push.

Yesterday's win gives us 11 points from 10 games - but it's worth noting that 7 of those have come against the bottom 3 (with the other 4 points gained from games against lower half opponent - win v Leeds (11th), Wolves (14th). We failed to get any points against Leicester (3rd), Liverpool x2 (4th), Chelsea (5th) and Brighton (17th).

 

[Raziel]

You make some really important points - as ever the devil is in the detail and you also have to try and recall some of the circumstance and context around each situation. I've tried to pick up some of these within the retrospective narratives for example under AVB the style of football was dire (though very different approach to what we're watching at the moment) and then we started getting absolute pastings. Under Jol there was always the feeling that he didn't have the same optimism in the squad as the board did about its ability to smash the top 4 ceiling.

Currently there is a huge amount of context that the data alone doesn't reference - the impact of COVID and the knock on effects of player conditioning through a minimal off and pre-season and then the regularity of games. There is also the macro-climate and the number of crazy results and terrible runs of form all our adversaries have suffered. And of course, the relatively short period of time Jose has been in charge and the obvious limitations of the squad already cited (lack of quality CB options). Then additionally the financial and emotional investment put into getting Jose in the first place means that Levy may be more patient this time around.

However, what the data does show is that whenever any manager under Levy has overseen a poor return of form over a 10-game period (sure - this is just an arbitrary number) they don't get very long to put things right and if they don't - regardless of contract, reputation or previous credit they get the push.

Yesterday's win gives us 11 points from 10 games - but it's worth noting that 7 of those have come against the bottom 3 (with the other 4 points gained from games against lower half opponent - win v Leeds (11th), Wolves (14th). We failed to get any points against Leicester (3rd), Liverpool x2 (4th), Chelsea (5th) and Brighton (17th).

So agree with that in general, Levy is not afraid to make tough decisions, and most managers struggle to turn around results after a certain scale of a bad run (don't know if it's 10).

That said, pressure is an interesting thing, by it's nature everyone having bad runs has taken the pressure off each other, continuing to be the cups also eases the pressure as well, and unlike a lot of his predecessors, Jose has a lot of experience dealing with levels of expectation way beyond Spurs (you could argue if he dealt with it well or not).

I'm not going to claim to have a crystal ball, I could see us finish in top 4 and with a cup, I could also see 5th/6th and empty handed .. I'd say it would really need the wheels to completely come off to see Levy considering anything pre end of season.