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American politics

Jordinho said:
He says his base is stronger than ever and he's right. The twenty odd percent that support him will do so forever because there's no other alternative to them. They will remain Republicans till they die. If you say you believe in GHod and Republican values, that's all they need hear. They will keep throwing the bible at you without having understood anything it tries to tell you.

The Democrats need to engage the independent voters to win back the majorities next year.
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Argument from the opening arguments podcast.

A drop in his approval ratings amongst republicans will be the key thing to look for. At the moment republican candidates will be more worried about losing against another republican candidate in primaries. Because of gerrymandering and voter suppression many districts are rather unexciting in the actual elections.

If Trump loses the approval rating of republican voters it will no longer make political sense to support him. Many republican politicians will then profit from distancing themselves from Trump and impeachment becomes a real possibility.

His approval ratings amongst republicans has been trending down, but remains at around 80%. Him dropping below 65-70% is where things will start to get interesting.

I believe most of what we see from Trump, policies, actions, tweets and communication is aimed at keeping the republican approval rating high. That's the only thing that will keep him in office for 4 years. The rest of what he does is primarily an attempt to enact stuff that helps him and the rest of the 1%. He's succeeding quite well at those two.
scaramanga said:
I think the Democrats can walk it just by putting forward a sensible, likeable candidate. The problem they had last time was splitting themselves between a sensible candidate nobody liked and a ridiculous one who everyone liked.
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Sensible, likeable, charismatic, able to get the big donations in, willing to tow the party lines, experienced enough, but untarnished enough by political drama and without personal baggage that will end their chances. Other than Obama when was the last times either party managed to put one of those forward?
 
Alaric said:
Yes, W now seems sensible, intelligent, well informed, perceptive, thoughtful and self aware by comparison, and W was an utter clam.
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All the while lying, cheating and scheming and unjustly starting a war in Iraq that cost anywhere from 150,000 to 750,000 lives and de-stabilizing the world.
 
braineclipse said:
.Sensible, likeable, charismatic, able to get the big donations in, willing to tow the party lines, experienced enough, but untarnished enough by political drama and without personal baggage that will end their chances. Other than Obama when was the last times either party managed to put one of those forward?
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First term Bill Clinton, I suppose. Just realised how long ago that was.
 
scaramanga said:
First term Bill Clinton, I suppose. Just realised how long ago that was.
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The #metoo campaign would have ended his chances had he been at that stage of his career now I think.

Scumbag too.

McCain was decent, probably would have stood a decent chance up against anyone other than Obama.
 
I don't like this rehabilitation of Dubya. Until Trump spends a couple of trillion dollars on as big a phuck up as the Iraq War, then his record is better than George W. Bush's.
 
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the dza said:
I don't like this rehabilitation of Dubya. Until Trump spends a couple of trillion dollars on as big a phuck up as the Iraq War, then his record is better than George W. Bush's.
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If Donnie presses the button it will be the biggest fudge up in human history, in fact it might be the end of human history. BUsh is only being rehabilitated in comparative terms dropping from biggest macaron elected as POTUS to 2nd biggest.

Bannon is shooting his mouth off in a new book apparently - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff
“You realise where this is going,” he is quoted as saying. “This is all about money laundering. Mueller chose [senior prosecutor Andrew] Weissmann first and he is a money-laundering guy. Their path to fudging Trump goes right through Paul Manafort, Don Jr and Jared Kushner … It’s as plain as a hair on your face.”

Last month it was reported that federal prosecutors had subpoenaed records from Deutsche Bank, the German financial institution that has lent hundreds of millions of dollars to the Kushner property empire. Bannon continues: “It goes through Deutsche Bank and all the Kushner brick. The Kushner brick is greasy. They’re going to go right through that. They’re going to roll those two guys up and say play me or trade me.”
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Rorschach said:
If Donnie presses the button it will be the biggest fudge up in human history, in fact it might be the end of human history. BUsh is only being rehabilitated in comparative terms dropping from biggest macaron elected as POTUS to 2nd biggest.

Bannon is shooting his mouth off in a new book apparently - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff
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It is hyperbole though isn't it? Trump isn't going to nuke anybody, I genuinely don't think the people that have to launch those weapons would follow his orders, were he insane enough to issue them. He might have some codes and that big case to make him feel important, I just don't see all those people in the background letting candyfloss head potentially destroy the world. And I don't think Trump really wants to do something like that anyway.

IMO, he tweets this sh1t to distract from some awful governance or something like the Bannon story there. In a couple of days time there will be some other inflammatory bull1hit put out as a distraction.

So, as things stand, I think Bush has Trump beat in the sh1tty president stakes. I'd also say Trump is less of a macaron; Bush Jr only became president because his family are the establishment and his dad was president, Trump did it by trampling all over the establishment candidates and parties.

Both of them are still ar5eholes.
 
the dza said:
It is hyperbole though isn't it? Trump isn't going to nuke anybody, I genuinely don't think the people that have to launch those weapons would follow his orders, were he insane enough to issue them. He might have some codes and that big case to make him feel important, I just don't see all those people in the background letting candyfloss head potentially destroy the world. And I don't think Trump really wants to do something like that anyway.

IMO, he tweets this sh1t to distract from some awful governance or something like the Bannon story there. In a couple of days time there will be some other inflammatory bull1hit put out as a distraction.

So, as things stand, I think Bush has Trump beat in the sh1tty president stakes. I'd also say Trump is less of a macaron; Bush Jr only became president because his family are the establishment and his dad was president, Trump did it by trampling all over the establishment candidates and parties.

Both of them are still ar5eholes.
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I certainly hope not, but who can be sure. That is why I get him out before he can do something irrevocable.

The tweets are indeed a distraction, but he is doing some pretty bricky things beyond just tweeting bollox.

And Trump is a way bigger arsehole the Bush IMO.
 
Rorschach said:
I certainly hope not, but who can be sure. That is why I get him out before he can do something irrevocable.

The tweets are indeed a distraction, but he is doing some pretty bricky things beyond just tweeting bollox.

And Trump is a way bigger ******** the Bush IMO.
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Be careful what you wish for. President Pence might be more polite than President Trump, but then the world might end up with a competent right-wing nutcase in charge of the most powerful country, instead of an incompetent phuckwit who isn't able to get as much done as someone who knows their way around Washington.

All the sh11ty stuff that Trump would like to do, none of it is normalised with his name to it, so it is clear to everyone that it's horrible. Put a more "respectable" face on it, they can get away with a lot more. At least with Trump, the whole ideology of nutty Republicans has a good chance of being flushed down the toilet for a long time in 2020, assuming the Democrats get their act together and start putting forward some policies to change America for the better, beyond being not-Trump.
 
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