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A worrying trend?
- Thread starter Pirate55
- Start date
Finney Is Back
Luka Modric
I just see it as a natural progression. Last year we went behind in a quite a lot of games and then tended to be chasing them as the game wore on. As a result we would be losing/drawing games going into the last 20 minutes and would get quite a few late equalisers/winners as we chased the game.
This season our play has been better and we have (typically) found ourselves leading going into those last 20 minutes of games. This means that the other team are chasing the game and committing more men forward with us being pushed back a little too deep.
The next stage of our progression is to ensure that we see the game out when we are leading going into the final quarter. There are probably three ways to do this:
1. Ensure that we are not pushed deeper, continue to play our normal pressing game and dominate possession and territory as a result. Doing this requires a special kind of mentality, but I think Poch is trying to instill this into the team. The other thing that this requires is an excellent bench. Our pressing game requires huge effort from Kane, Eriksen and Lamela in particular. All of these 3 players probably have to be substituted between somewhere around the 65th and 80th minutes if we want to maintain our press. That requires the right options on the bench and currently we're a bit short here, only really having a decent replacement option for Lamela with Son.
2. Be far more effective on the counter attack. In most of the games that we ended up drawing there were numerous occasions where we broke with 3, 4 or even 5 players outnumbering the opponents defence. We need to convert those chances to score into actual goals.
3. Manage the game in a calmer, more experienced way. It might not be pretty, but it can be effective. Slow the game down by wasting time, fake a few injuries and draw some fouls. Perhaps ensure we have a big, wily, old centre half on the bench who can ensure that we're far less likely to concede from set pieces.
Hopefully next year we will have progressed further so that we are again ahead in many games as we going into the last quarter, but we're better equipped to remain in front. I expect it to be a combination of all three of the above (although perhaps without the big, wily, old centre half)
This season our play has been better and we have (typically) found ourselves leading going into those last 20 minutes of games. This means that the other team are chasing the game and committing more men forward with us being pushed back a little too deep.
The next stage of our progression is to ensure that we see the game out when we are leading going into the final quarter. There are probably three ways to do this:
1. Ensure that we are not pushed deeper, continue to play our normal pressing game and dominate possession and territory as a result. Doing this requires a special kind of mentality, but I think Poch is trying to instill this into the team. The other thing that this requires is an excellent bench. Our pressing game requires huge effort from Kane, Eriksen and Lamela in particular. All of these 3 players probably have to be substituted between somewhere around the 65th and 80th minutes if we want to maintain our press. That requires the right options on the bench and currently we're a bit short here, only really having a decent replacement option for Lamela with Son.
2. Be far more effective on the counter attack. In most of the games that we ended up drawing there were numerous occasions where we broke with 3, 4 or even 5 players outnumbering the opponents defence. We need to convert those chances to score into actual goals.
3. Manage the game in a calmer, more experienced way. It might not be pretty, but it can be effective. Slow the game down by wasting time, fake a few injuries and draw some fouls. Perhaps ensure we have a big, wily, old centre half on the bench who can ensure that we're far less likely to concede from set pieces.
Hopefully next year we will have progressed further so that we are again ahead in many games as we going into the last quarter, but we're better equipped to remain in front. I expect it to be a combination of all three of the above (although perhaps without the big, wily, old centre half)
glorygloryeze
Tom Huddlestone
I agree, esp with no.2...
parklane1
Tony Galvin
This for me as well, its a learning experience for young players and we will learn from it.
glasgowspur
Luka Modric
We've also ripped two teams apart late on in the last 6 games, Man U and Stoke.
Bullet
Andy Thompson
Precisely this. Football is all about belief and mentality. If a team equalises to make it 2-2, that team pushes on for the winner whilst the other cowers under the pressure. The human mind is a weak and powerful, stupid and wonderful thing.
90sSpursBook
Erik Edman
The worrying trend for me is the amount of times we are leading and comfortable and then we get equalised against and cant wrestle back any momentum.
In each of the 4 occasions that teams have equalised against us at home (Stoke, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Woolwich and WBA) we've barely created anything after; lost one game and were hanging on in the other 3.
Away from home its not quite so bad as we managed to bag winners against Watford (albeit slightly fortuitously) and at City; yet at Leicester, WBA and now Chelsea we've given up leads and not ever looked like regaining them.
yesterday was a classic example; even at 2-1 I thought we were well assured; it was hardly as if Hugo had a lot to do and despite being on 3 bookings the back 4 seemed well in control before hazard scored out of nothing. At 2-2 (in addition to all the other pressure and mental fatigue) we still had 12 minutes remaining and barely got into their half.
This seems to be a mental lapse but I'd need to see other teams' records in similar circumstances to know whether its a particular problem for us this year.
In each of the 4 occasions that teams have equalised against us at home (Stoke, Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Woolwich and WBA) we've barely created anything after; lost one game and were hanging on in the other 3.
Away from home its not quite so bad as we managed to bag winners against Watford (albeit slightly fortuitously) and at City; yet at Leicester, WBA and now Chelsea we've given up leads and not ever looked like regaining them.
yesterday was a classic example; even at 2-1 I thought we were well assured; it was hardly as if Hugo had a lot to do and despite being on 3 bookings the back 4 seemed well in control before hazard scored out of nothing. At 2-2 (in addition to all the other pressure and mental fatigue) we still had 12 minutes remaining and barely got into their half.
This seems to be a mental lapse but I'd need to see other teams' records in similar circumstances to know whether its a particular problem for us this year.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
Most teams actually crumble in that position
The key is the timing if the game in relation to the pressure
It's very different early mid season but at this stage and particularly when we have been comfortably the better side it breaks the players IMO. As long as they learn from it its no biggy but it really does hit them hard
Arse are notorious lately IMO for having that knack of throwing away a win under the slightest bit of pressure
Pirate55
The Last Man Standing 17/18
[QUOTE
We were already winning comfortably going into the last ten minutes in those games, so I don't see the comparison.
Carragher said after the Chelseaa game that after Hazard scored there was effectively about thirteen minutes left in the match. In that time, we didn't manage a single effort on goal and hardly even threatened, however we did have 4 players booked in that time. That is what disappoints me and it is our lack of composure in the last ten minutes of games where we need a result that remains a worrying trend that has not yet been rectified and has cost us.
Hopefully we will find the solution next season.
glasgowspur
Luka Modric
Man U we scored 3 in the last 20-25 mins when it was 0-0
Stoke 2-0 up, a lead so comfortable we've lost it a couple times this season, before scoring another couple late on.
From memory, not checked those.
I just don't think it's all doom and gloom because of a couple of results.
A young squad, under a lot of pressure, they will learn and improve.
Finney Is Back
Luka Modric
We clearly lost our heads after Chelsea came back to 2-2. That was reasonably understandable in the context of the occasion. The players were taking their frustrations out in the wrong way. Pochettino will show them this and ensure that they learn from it.
braineclipse
Steve Sedgley
For clarity. I'm guessing you do not know the meaning of statistical significance and used the word in a more colloquial fashion?
Of course 8-10 points is important and of course that has a significant (though perhaps not statistically significant) impact on a season. That's why i think luck plays a real factor over the course of a season.
You really don't think those 4-5 instances could have swung another way with a bit more/less luck? It's essentially 4-5 kicks of the ball, deflections, errors of judgement etc...
I realize regression to the mean only works if there's no serious underlying flaw. That's what I'm saying, I don't see a reason to think there's a serious underlying flaw.
Pirate55
The Last Man Standing 17/18
There are those that are concerned that with our high tempo and high press, the players run out of steam towards the end of games.
Time will tell whether this flaw continues to be a problem. For me, the jury is still out on this matter.
90291Spur
Paul Walsh
From what I have seen there have been more times when this team has continued to press up until the 95th minute. There is a case that in the past 6 weeks or so our intensity has slacked off - especially the mental side leading to is letting leads slip. Hard running and pressing until the end of games was a significant feature for most of the season.
Bedfordspurs
Mark Falco
I don't think we have dropped off physically but in some games we have mentally
It's the games where we are only (I know it sounds daft) 2 goals ahead like Chelsea and Stoke or even worse like Wets Brom where as a team we know we have been the better side and in some cases by a long long way but haven't turned it into the goals the players know they could have. The opposition gets a lucky goal and also invariably has nothing to lose at these points in the game .. Our players then get stuck between attacking as before or trying to stabilise !!!! It's hard and you need great game play, experience and luck. Also helps if you have subs that can put the opposition on the back foot either by being different or having something that's a big advantage like height or pace
We haven't been great this season at chasing games, but that could be because we have been so dominant
It's the games where we are only (I know it sounds daft) 2 goals ahead like Chelsea and Stoke or even worse like Wets Brom where as a team we know we have been the better side and in some cases by a long long way but haven't turned it into the goals the players know they could have. The opposition gets a lucky goal and also invariably has nothing to lose at these points in the game .. Our players then get stuck between attacking as before or trying to stabilise !!!! It's hard and you need great game play, experience and luck. Also helps if you have subs that can put the opposition on the back foot either by being different or having something that's a big advantage like height or pace
We haven't been great this season at chasing games, but that could be because we have been so dominant
Pirate55
The Last Man Standing 17/18
Sorry I don't agree. I pointed this worrying trend out in the OP back in December. We continue to have problems in the last ten minutes of games conceding important goals in the second half of the season as well as the first e.g. Leicester, Arscum, WBA, Chelscum off the top of my head.
I would like some statto to compare the points we "won" in the last ten minutes as opposed to the points we "lost" in the last ten minutes. My feeling is that this has been a season long issue and we need to find a solution to it next season if we want to progress.
90291Spur
Paul Walsh
I am not denying that we were letting in late goals and that this is a worrying trend. I'm merely stating that, in my opinion, it's not down to us having run out of 'legs' (which I thought was your point when you said There are those that are concerned that with our high tempo and high press, the players run out of steam towards the end of games), it's down to making mistakes.
Bullet
Andy Thompson
If we are winning, the oppo throw everything at us and sometimes score
Maltese Falcon
Niko Kranjcar
The problem to my mind has been closing the game off. Should have bee 3-0 up against WBA if it were not for poor finishing; which in turn was probably nerves; and in turn the result of inexperience...