Good evening, sports nerds and decimal point ultras. It's that exciting time again, when we go rumbling and tumbling through the numbing numbers of the UEFA co-efficient tables. Yes, it all adds up to make sum story.
Spurs are in decent shape, presently lodged in 21st position. Should we qualify for Champions League next season(and that is said in all humbleness and also assumes Leicester get in, leaving two places left), we have a chance to make it into the second pot of the group stage draw. Of the 20 teams ahead of us, it's highly likely that Chelsea, Sevilla, and Valencia will not qualify for next year.
Man United, who sit just above us in UEFA's 20th ranking, will need a great closing run to qualify. They'd have to pip either Emirates Marketing Project or Arsenal, which would knock out a higher-ranked club than Spurs. Whatever way it works out with those three clubs, it means that a fourth club ranked above us will not qualify. Schalke and Leverkusen are also ranked above us but have work to do to qualify. They're in the hunt in Germany with three other clubs for the final two spots. So, they could miss out as well.
Assuming a best case scenario with Schalke and Leverkusen missing out, we'd sit in 15th place behind other clubs who look certainties to qualify for next year. It's unlikely we could move up in the rankings, even if we go all the way to the final. We'd need two years of big numbers to make a significant move upward.
Could we drop a place or two? Yes. Athletic Bilbao are just over four points behind us and play Gary NeVilencia in the next round. Sweep that and they earn four points for two wins and a fifth for advancing to the quarter finals with more points available. Shaktar Donetsk could also move past us by beating Anderlecht. One consideration in that tie is that Shaktar play their home game on the other side of the country, in Lviv.
It's quite possible, then, that we would drop into the third pot. It was from the third pot that we had such a memorable time in our last CL appearance.
So, if we fail to get past Dortmund, it might be a disappointment as a fan, but not the wurst situation for next year. Win and Spurs are on their way to pot two, if not Basel.
Here's a link to the full club co-efficients table:
http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/index.html
You're now up to date and fully equipped to be the bright spark in your next pub debate.