milo
Jack L. Jones
Or if we finish fourth this season, third next, second the season after and first the season after that, is that regressing to our mean?
No. Regression to mean is going back to your average after an outlier.
Or if we finish fourth this season, third next, second the season after and first the season after that, is that regressing to our mean?
Or if we finish fourth this season, third next, second the season after and first the season after that, is that regressing to our mean?
Arsenal's mean is somewhere between 3rd and 4th, probably closer to 4th now.
Our's is around 5th.
Yeah I know. I was just being fanciful. Whilst I do see the logic in this, and have no doubts that this is true, I do also think that we are improving our mean meaning that we should be expecting to be better so long as we kep this group of players and manager together.
Absolutely but that is different to regression to mean. The challenge to us is to make sure that the growth is organic and we can survive changing manager or losing key players without a dip in performance.
It's worth reading up on "the curse of Sports Illustrated", the equivalent here would probably be a team's performance dropping after the manager has won manager of the month.
http://wmbriggs.com/post/63/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated_cover_jinx
Very interesting! So we have to be focused on rebasing our mean rather than hoping to outperform the sum of our parts which it seems we are doing.
Exactly.
Regression to mean is useful when looking at potential signings. There is a chance that someone might offer big money for Vardy in the next couple of windows. There is a very real likelihood that his form will return to his career average soon and that his true valuation should be based on this rather than the first half of this season.
How do you factor in level though as Vardys career average is better than 1 in 2.... Ok it wasn't always against premiership opposition but he also wasnt playing for a premiership level club
His record for Leicester is 41 goals in 123 games, spread across the Championship and Premier League. If we assume that this season is an outlier then his record before this season at Leicester was 26 goals in 106 games. I think the likelihood is that you are buying a 1 in 4 striker.
Surely you would use minutes on the pitch to get a realistic measure too
He was sub a lot and would have played arguably less minutes a lot of games
I'm not trying to say Vardy is the answer for anything just to use the stats logic you need all the right facts and details
I was only trying to make the point that he is over valued right now and it is unlikely that he will continue his current form. Of course when you are looking to sign a player you look at more than just goals to games.
You would hope so although a lot of fans don't see beyond that
He is arguably over valued but he could in theory have another good season and those stats suddenly get better
The key for me with him is his age being a negative
Confront bake is comfortable
Down confort is some comfort
No idea what the issue is with the rest
Damn youThanks for the clarification.
There was no issue with the rest; I was largely riffing on the cake theme, hence the reference to "tier" (as in multi-tiered wedding cake) and the fact the manager was as hungry as the fans.
Forgive my weak attempt at humous ... er ... humour.
I was only trying to make the point that he is over valued right now and it is unlikely that he will continue his current form. Of course when you are looking to sign a player you look at more than just goals to games.
Two very useful measures for working out if a striker is good or on a hot streak are goals per shot and goals per on target shot.You would hope so although a lot of fans don't see beyond that
He is arguably over valued but he could in theory have another good season and those stats suddenly get better
The key for me with him is his age being a negative