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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Just looked up your John Carnochan fella. Inspiring. Various schools I have worked in have brought in some of these community souls that work with knife crime. Amazing people achieving so many little things on the ground. Impossible to quantify lives saved due to crimes not committed because of these people.
 
Just looked up your John Carnochan fella. Inspiring. Various schools I have worked in have brought in some of these community souls that work with knife crime. Amazing people achieving so many little things on the ground. Impossible to quantify lives saved due to crimes not committed because of these people.
Honestly, it's so so good and so unrecognised.

Genuinely a hero of mine to put hisbhead above the noise and change something like that.

Imagine if he took advise off this forum
 
It is amazing how crime decreases and integration increases when you do give 'more cuddles' - things like properly staffed and funded soical clubs and youth centres, proper funded engagement with schools and local institutions. The economic decisions of the last 50 years has led to almost all of that being lost and lo and behold .....

People want to be seen, to feel heard, to feel they are part of something and the 80s's "there is no such thing as society" neo-liberal creed portends where we are now.

So yeah more cuddles would have more effect than more prison cells.
Mainly because they'll find new role models and people that give a brick.
 
Honestly, it's so so good and so unrecognised.

Genuinely a hero of mine to put hisbhead above the noise and change something like that.

Imagine if he took advise off this forum
We had a chap in at my daughter's school giving assemblies/talks to the various age groups....hard hitting stuff, the kids were visibly effected. And that was because the chap speaking had lost his own son to a knife attack. Heartbreaking, but you could see his mission was to make everyone fully aware of outcomes and consequences.
 
We had a chap in at my daughter's school giving assemblies/talks to the various age groups....hard hitting stuff, the kids were visibly effected. And that was because the chap speaking had lost his own son to a knife attack. Heartbreaking, but you could see his mission was to make everyone fully aware of outcomes and consequences.
Honestly mate, so many good people out there that are lost in the noise.

Imagine a media of good stories rather than constant crud....or at least a balance
 
Brexit. I find that everyone's still got an opinion on it. And very few people can remove emotive bias from their opinion. Even the governor of the Bank of England:


"Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK's economic growth "for the foreseeable future", the UK's most senior banker has warned."

The clear negative impact of Brexit on economic growth evidenced on an IMF chart with my scibble showing the end of the transition period:Screenshot_20251018_194223_Chrome.jpg
 
Brexit. I find that everyone's still got an opinion on it. And very few people can remove emotive bias from their opinion. Even the governor of the Bank of England:


"Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK's economic growth "for the foreseeable future", the UK's most senior banker has warned."

The clear negative impact of Brexit on economic growth evidenced on an IMF chart with my scibble showing the end of the transition period:View attachment 20639

I mean...OK? Of course people will have an opinion on Brexit. It was arguably the referendum which kickstarted the global political shift we saw explode in it's wake. Why is that such a surprise?

BTW, what is the source of your GiF, and what is the overall point you're trying to make with your handwritten additions? What's the context here?
 
I mean...OK? Of course people will have an opinion on Brexit. It was arguably the referendum which kickstarted the global political shift we saw explode in it's wake. Why is that such a surprise?

BTW, what is the source of your GiF, and what is the overall point you're trying to make with your handwritten additions? What's the context here?
Source is the IMF. The point is that the governor of the Bank of England is publically telling people that Brexit has negatively impacted on UK economic growth. But the "facts", if anything, point to the opposite.
 
Source is the IMF. The point is that the governor of the Bank of England is publically telling people that Brexit has negatively impacted on UK economic growth. But the "facts", if anything, point to the opposite.

In what context has UK economic growth not been impacted beyond that gif? At this point, call me old-fashioned and possibly naive, but I'll trust the words of the Bank of England govenor over this gif until further context and info follows.
 
In what context has UK economic growth not been impacted beyond that gif?
I don't understand, economic growth refers to one thing, GDP, which is illustrated in the gif. Economic growth is what the governor of the BoE was referring to. Although i am not actually a fan of using it as the primary measure of economic health. For example, companies like Starbucks operate a franchise model where an individual starbucks in the UK is a small business operating under a franchise agreement with Starbucks. Starbucks are domiciled in the Netherlands. When you tap your card in a UK starbucks your money credits an account in the Netherlands. Starbucks on paper make no money in the UK. The millions of £ of economic activity every day is reported in the Netherlands.

I'm just saying that honesty matters.
 
I don't understand, economic growth refers to one thing, GDP, which is illustrated in the gif. Economic growth is what the governor of the BoE was referring to. Although i am not actually a fan of using it as the primary measure of economic health. For example, companies like Starbucks operate a franchise model where an individual starbucks in the UK is a small business operating under a franchise agreement with Starbucks. Starbucks are domiciled in the Netherlands. When you tap your card in a UK starbucks your money credits an account in the Netherlands. Starbucks on paper make no money in the UK. The millions of £ of economic activity every day is reported in the Netherlands.

I'm just saying that honesty matters.

And I am asking for examples as to how Brexit has not affected the UK's economic growth (beyond that image, which again carries little detail ort context as to how the information was collected, what the sample size it came from was, and what it specifically refers to)? An example. The Office For Budget Responsibility 'estimates that since 2020, Brexit has led to a 4% reduction in long-run productivity, which translates to a smaller gross domestic product (GDP). Analysis by Goldman Sachs similarly found that the UK economy has grown 5% less over the past eight years than other comparable advanced economies' (full disclosure, I cannot claim any held knowledge here, this is the result of an ai-driven google search LOL).

It just felt to me that your post was designed to largely denigrate people critical of Brexit, and I was interested to see some facts supporting your comment beyond that one gif. Again, please don't mistake me for a financial wizard of knowledge LOL :)
 
Brexit. I find that everyone's still got an opinion on it. And very few people can remove emotive bias from their opinion. Even the governor of the Bank of England:


"Brexit will have a negative impact on the UK's economic growth "for the foreseeable future", the UK's most senior banker has warned."

The clear negative impact of Brexit on economic growth evidenced on an IMF chart with my scibble showing the end of the transition period:View attachment 20639

You don't understand economics
 
And I am asking for examples as to how Brexit has not affected the UK's economic growth (beyond that image, which again carries little detail ort context as to how the information was collected, what the sample size it came from was, and what it specifically refers to)? An example. The Office For Budget Responsibility 'estimates that since 2020, Brexit has led to a 4% reduction in long-run productivity, which translates to a smaller gross domestic product (GDP). Analysis by Goldman Sachs similarly found that the UK economy has grown 5% less over the past eight years than other comparable advanced economies' (full disclosure, I cannot claim any held knowledge here, this is the result of an ai-driven google search LOL).

It just felt to me that your post was designed to largely denigrate people critical of Brexit, and I was interested to see some facts supporting your comment beyond that one gif. Again, please don't mistake me for a financial wizard of knowledge LOL :)
The OBR nor Goldman Sachs can really tell what impact Brexit has or hasn't had. All of these studies refer back to projections of UK economic growth before we left the EU. And indeed, we are significantly undsr where we were predicted to be. That however, doesn't take into account that the data this is based on is woefully out of date (admittedly, its all they have to go on) and that pretty much every other comparable country is way under where they were projected to be in e.g. 2016 due to a number of things. If i stick with the OBR analysis - they're saying we'd be 4% better off if we hadn't left the EU in terms of GDP. But that means we'd have completely bucked global trends and be sitting right on top of performers in the G7 (we are already one of the fastest growing large advanced economies). It is frankly, counterintuitive and there hasnt been any measureable negative impact from Brexit in GDP figures. The line has continued without spike or dip through 2016 to covid where there is a significant dip then spike and the trend has very acturately followed peer states such as Germany and France. Dipping and spiking at almost exactly the same time.
 
On another issue...wealth taxes (on the back of Polanski's latest). The best example i can give you as to why wealth taxes don't work is:
- I start a business up and i own 100 £1 shares in the limited company.
- The business is doing well after a couple of years, turnimg over about £20 million a year and paying me a dividend and director's salary of about £200k a year.
- How are you counting this in terms of a wealth tax? I own £100 worth of shares on paper. But someone may be willing to pay me millions for the company.
- if you tax me based on £100 theres a huge loophole in your tax.
- if you tax me based on an independent (but highly speculative) valuation that the business is worth, say, £30 million, 1% of that is £300K. Which is more than i make out of the company and would bankrupt me instantly.

They are unworkable fools gold.
 
On another issue...wealth taxes (on the back of Polanski's latest). The best example i can give you as to why wealth taxes don't work is:
- I start a business up and i own 100 £1 shares in the limited company.
- The business is doing well after a couple of years, turnimg over about £20 million a year and paying me a dividend and director's salary of about £200k a year.
- How are you counting this in terms of a wealth tax? I own £100 worth of shares on paper. But someone may be willing to pay me millions for the company.
- if you tax me based on £100 theres a huge loophole in your tax.
- if you tax me based on an independent (but highly speculative) valuation that the business is worth, say, £30 million, 1% of that is £300K. Which is more than i make out of the company and would bankrupt me instantly.

They are unworkable fools gold.
What is the alternative? Keep hammering the £30-40k-ers? The ones whose security has been completely destroyed by the last 15 years of Tory and now Pink Tory governments. The ones whose take homes are now the same as minimum wage. The ones who are having to use foodbanks and sleep in cars.

The incomes not from earnings are the only group who have prospered from 15 years of extreme Reaganonomics. They are the ones who now need to bear a burden
 
The OBR nor Goldman Sachs can really tell what impact Brexit has or hasn't had. All of these studies refer back to projections of UK economic growth before we left the EU. And indeed, we are significantly undsr where we were predicted to be. That however, doesn't take into account that the data this is based on is woefully out of date (admittedly, its all they have to go on) and that pretty much every other comparable country is way under where they were projected to be in e.g. 2016 due to a number of things. If i stick with the OBR analysis - they're saying we'd be 4% better off if we hadn't left the EU in terms of GDP. But that means we'd have completely bucked global trends and be sitting right on top of performers in the G7 (we are already one of the fastest growing large advanced economies). It is frankly, counterintuitive and there hasnt been any measureable negative impact from Brexit in GDP figures. The line has continued without spike or dip through 2016 to covid where there is a significant dip then spike and the trend has very acturately followed peer states such as Germany and France. Dipping and spiking at almost exactly the same time.

Are you talking about the real word? Daily life? Or just a series of studies which you yourself are unsure of?

In terms of daily life...food prices have increased, real wages have reduced, there has been a slower economic growth, there is lower investment, and there has been a widening of the economic gap between rich and everyone else. Vulnerable communities in particular have suffered thanks to the economic disruption caused by Brexit (this is all pulled from reports by the London School of Economics).

As to the line on the graph showing dipping and spiking at almost exactly the same time, that's a graph. I'm talking about the real world and real life. The anger and strife we see building on the streets (the hatred) doesn't rise from prosperity, it rises from poverty and not having enough to get by. So with the greatest of respects, unless there is more substantial proof that the economic picture has not got worse since Brexit, I believe it has. I'd also posit the theory (in terms of that graph) that had the EU found a way to work through it's issues (and we had legitimate issues with them, absolutely) then the power of the EU as a trading bloc would've been far, far better for the overall economic health and security of all the countries on that graph. My view anyway (again, I absolutely accept that there needed to be some sorting with regards to us in the EU and we needed to renegotiate terms to be better for us).
 
What is the alternative? Keep hammering the £30-40k-ers? The ones whose security has been completely destroyed by the last 15 years of Tory and now Pink Tory governments. The ones whose take homes are now the same as minimum wage. The ones who are having to use foodbanks and sleep in cars.

The incomes not from earnings are the only group who have prospered from 15 years of extreme Reaganonomics. They are the ones who now need to bear a burden

...something no graph ever seems to be able to impart powerfully enough to folks who don't see it. Sadly, it's never really 'real' unless it happens to you or yours.
I would bet that there are some folks here who have no idea that foodbanks have increasingly become vital for hand to mouth families, people who once were able to get by fine working, but who now find that unless they go to foodbanks, they have awful choices to make such as transportation or food, rent or food. Food insecurity is actually a very accurate measure of poverty rates. I put this link in not for you, but for others who might not be fully aware.

https://www.statista.com/statistics...,Growing discontent with political mainstream

...and this...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqw5d00r0o
 
Are you talking about the real word? Daily life? Or just a series of studies which you yourself are unsure of?

In terms of daily life...food prices have increased, real wages have reduced, there has been a slower economic growth, there is lower investment, and there has been a widening of the economic gap between rich and everyone else. Vulnerable communities in particular have suffered thanks to the economic disruption caused by Brexit (this is all pulled from reports by the London School of Economics).

As to the line on the graph showing dipping and spiking at almost exactly the same time, that's a graph. I'm talking about the real world and real life. The anger and strife we see building on the streets (the hatred) doesn't rise from prosperity, it rises from poverty and not having enough to get by. So with the greatest of respects, unless there is more substantial proof that the economic picture has not got worse since Brexit, I believe it has. I'd also posit the theory (in terms of that graph) that had the EU found a way to work through it's issues (and we had legitimate issues with them, absolutely) then the power of the EU as a trading bloc would've been far, far better for the overall economic health and security of all the countries on that graph. My view anyway (again, I absolutely accept that there needed to be some sorting with regards to us in the EU and we needed to renegotiate terms to be better for us).
Inflation, lower economic growth etc. - that is a global phenomenon. These things would have happened here regardless. The EU are not a trading bloc. If that is what it was, nobody would have wanted to leave.
 
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