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What the pundits say

Little Luka

John Scales
I don't know if we already have such a thread or if there is even the slightest interest for it, but I like to read what the sports writers and pundits have to say about us. Good or bad, it doesn't really matter, my ego likes that our club is being noticed. :)

So I thought I'd post whatever I read here and you can shake your fist at it or maybe find some optimism in defeat, starting with yesterday's very positive article from the Guardian's Barney Ronay.


Why Tottenham may be the least ‘sexy’ team in recent Spurs history
Profitable, settled, fourth in the league – let’s face it this wasn’t really supposed to happen at all. For Spurs fans the temptation must be not to blink

Mauricio Pochettino was unusually animated during Tottenham’s 1-0 defeat by Leicester at White Hart Lane on Wednesday night. Not just at the final whistle or in the seven minutes of play remaining after Robert Huth had headed the winning goal. But pretty much right from the start Pochettino could be seen leaping up, banging his fist into his palm, yelling in that alarmingly deep and booming voice, and generally capering about in his overcoat like a man driven to distraction by flickering premonitions of disaster.

Not that this quite qualifies as one. Spurs are still fourth in the league. They played well in defeat. It was just their second loss in 16 games, a fine-margins affair that could easily have gone the other way had, say, Harry Kane’s second-half dink, brilliantly saved by Kasper Schmeichel, crept in rather than hitting the bar.

Perhaps the greater significance is that defeat should be taken so hard, that even slight dips in his team’s intensity should so anger Pochettino. Spurs have a sympathetic mini-run of games in the league now, Saturday’s match at home to Sunderland being followed by fixtures against Crystal Palace, Norwich and Watford. They will take into it the same qualities that have so far defined a team that has who have thrummed along without any obvious clogs or snags, and who may just turn out to be – in the best possible sense – the least “sexy” team in recent Spurs history.

The fact is even in defeat there are plenty of reasons to be both optimistic and genuinely intrigued by this new-issue Tottenham. For all the plaudits that will come their way Leicester aren’t the only extraordinary story floating around the top of the table.

At which point wind chimes tinkle, the screen begins to dissolve and we’re back in the immediate aftermath of 2013 and the Summer of Bale.

Two years ago this week, still stumbling through the flux, Tottenham were limping into a run of seven defeats in 14 matches, including a 5-1 and two 4-0s. A third manager in three years, Tim Sherwood, had just been appointed. Club and supporters were still seasick from an outbreak of transfer-hysteria that is still for many synonymous with waste, acrimony, and the disastrous splurging of the golden ticket that was Gareth Bale’s windfall sale to Real Madrid.

With this in mind it is even more remarkable that year zero for the current Spurs ascendency, jumping-off point for so much of what is good now, should be that same Summer of Bale. As it stands Spurs – wasteful, fourth-placed Spurs – are the only Premier League club in profit on transfer trading over the past five years. The team is speckled with young, settled players. Having whirled between Harry Redknapp, André Villas-Boas and Sherwood – managers so different that to appoint them one after the other is a bit like serving your players a three-course meal of sushi, Swiss cheese fondue and lamb jalfrezi and then wondering why they look a bit queasy – they have now landed on the perfect Levy-ball manager in the resourceful, uncomplaining Pochettino.

Profitable, settled, fourth in the league. Let’s face it this wasn’t really supposed to happen at all. For Spurs fans the temptation must be not to blink, just to keep on looking straight ahead. And yet there is room for a little housekeeping here. Above all, that summer of spending – “the Bale money”, still shorthand for waste, panic, chances squandered – is in need of reassessment.

Bale went to Real Madrid in June 2013 for between £77m and £86m depending on who you believe. In response Spurs signed seven players, funded by the sales of Bale, Tom Huddlestone, Clint Dempsey and Steven Caulker. As Paulinho, Nacer Chadli, Roberto Soldado, Étienne Capoue, Vlad Chiriches, Christian Eriksen and Érik Lamela were reeled in in quick succession Garth Crooks, master of the pithy one-liner, suggested Spurs had “sold Elvis and bought The Beatles”.

By the autumn this had changed. It turned out Spurs had swapped the King for S Club 7. Wasted! Bungled! Thrown away! Lamela, Capoue, Soldado, Paulinho and Chadli played in the 6-0 and 5-0 defeats against Emirates Marketing Project and Liverpoolthat did for Villas-Boas. The conviction that Daniel Levy and/or then technical director Franco Baldini had chucked away the family silver in a spasm of half-roostered moneyball was pretty much universal.

As ever the truth is less clear-cut. By now the players involved have all, with one exception, either settled in or moved on at a decent price. Paulinho, the worst of the lot, was sold to Guangzhou Evergrande for a high-fives-in-the-boardroom £9.9m. Soldado remains the real disaster, sold to Villarreal for a £16m loss after 10 league goals in two years. On the plus side Chadli looks £7m well spent. Eriksen, despite some poor form, is a hit. Lamela has been either scratchy or sublime. He’s still only 23. On Wednesday night the Spurs fans sang his name. He’s a grower.

At the end of which the Bale splurge adds up to around £70m spent on Lamela, Eriksen and Chadli. It’s not exactly great business. But it’s not £50m on Fernando Torres. It’s not Manchester United’s champagne-supernova binge of the past two years. Plus, as the Premier League’s best players are lured periodically to the Iberian Old Firm, it turns out nobody has managed the subsequent transfer splurge that well.

In 2009 United sold Cristiano Ronaldo and converted him into Antonio Valencia, Gabriel Obertan, Chris Smalling, Bebé, Phil Jones and Ashley Young over the next two years. In 2014 Liverpool spent a Luis Suárez-sized £75m on Mario Balotelli, Divock Origi, Dejan Lovren, Lazar Markovic and Emre Can. Which is certainly a very expensive way of buying Emre Can.

Next to this the Bale splurge now looks like relatively sane business. And really this is just how Levy plays the game, a combination of hard bargaining, punts on promise, the odd jackpot, the odd dead end. The successes, such as Dele Alli and Eric Dier, are part of the same process, corollary to the failures. Plus for whatever reason – the constraints of the new stadium, the educative effects of that Bale splurge, the fruits of the academy – Spurs’ recruitment is on a hot streak. Indeed, right now they can field an entire first XI – Vorm; Trippier, Dier, Alderweireld, Davies; Bentaleb, Alli; Eriksen, Lamela, Chadli; Kane – either bought, blooded or brought back to the club in the post-Bale years. And all it turns out for the same price as one departing superstar.

At the end of which, by luck, judgment or both, that splurge has now been more or less unsplurged. The sense of a wider plan, of healthier structures lurking below, has emerged through the mist. Tottenham may or may not continue to thrive through the slog of winter into spring. But they will do so no longer in recovery, no longer post-Bale, with a clarity that began to stir, paradoxically, that same giddy summer, a beginning that felt at the time a lot more like an end.

http://www.theguardian.com/football...money-real-madrid-manchester-united-liverpool
 
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As a long time lurker who doesn't post because, since i can't get to live games, I haven't got much to contribute - this is a good and useful idea, and a very interesting article. Cheers Little Luka!

Since when did not being able to get to games stop people posting on here??

And why should it anyway?
 
Living abroad, having to make-do mainly with highlights packages, means my game opinions are too dependent on what some TV editor decides to include.
BTW, this forum is an absolute GHod-send, my replacement for getting down the pub with fellow Spuds supporters!
 
As a long time lurker who doesn't post because, since i can't get to live games, I haven't got much to contribute - this is a good and useful idea, and a very interesting article. Cheers Little Luka!

Since when did not being able to get to games stop people posting on here??

And why should it anyway?

Or not having anything to contribute, most Internet forums would be empty those were the rules mate, so speak up.
 
Mike L. Goodman of ESPN (Jan. 7)

Tottenham have added a backbone and are now primed for success
It's a good time to be a Tottenham Hotspur fan. Half a season ago, the team was considered at best an outside contender for the top four and a Champions League berth. Twenty games later, it's not Champions League qualification for which Spurs are a dark horse candidate; it's the title. They sit comfortably in fourth place, only six points behind first-place Arsenal and three ahead of fifth-place Manchester United.

A quick look at the table sure makes it seem like Tottenham has taken a major leap forward this season, but at the same time they've only accumulated 36 points, a total in line with their recent history. In fact, since their Champions League qualifying season of 2009-10, the only time Spurs have failed to take this many points from their first 20 games was last year, when they took 34.

The question is, have Spurs really improved? Or is the excitement around them merely the case of Spurs staying the same and benefiting from the implosions of Chelsea and Manchester United?

Given their points total, the case for a new and improved Spurs rests not in their results but in their performances. The glaringly obvious indicator is a plus-18 goal difference, tied with Emirates Marketing Project for the best in the league. Last year at this time they might have had 34 points, but their goal difference was a very unimpressive plus-2.

But Spurs are somewhat flattered by their goal difference so far this season. The combination of clinical finishing from Harry Kane and Dele Alli, among others, combined with the shot-stopping of Hugo Lloris has Spurs well outpacing their expected goal difference of plus-8. As advanced analytics tell us, eight is greater than two and last year, after 20 games, Spurs' expected goal difference was significantly worse than their actual goal difference, clocking in at minus-4.

So, Spurs are a little weird. They have fewer points than their goal difference might suggest they should, but a higher goal difference than their performances indicate they might deserve. Regardless, it's still a significant improvement over last season, where Spurs acquired points by consistently nabbing goals against the balance of their performances.

The case for Spurs improvement isn't that their performances this year should have netted them more points (though you can make that argument), but rather that it's quite clear their performances last year should have netted them less.

A press defense proves problematic
Last season, Tottenham were a bad defensive team. Not bad as in "mildly disappointing" or bad for Champions League-contender bad, but near-the-bottom-of-the-Premier-League-table bad. They conceded 53 goals, fifth-worst total in the league despite Hugo Lloris having an extremely impressive season between the posts. Spurs' expected goal total against was 61.74; only QPR and West Ham conceded more expected goals.

What made their defensive woes particularly confounding is how frequently they gave up high-quality shots to their opponents. Many of the other poorest defensive teams in the league struggled primarily because of the sheer volume of shots and shots on target they conceded to their opponents. Spurs were average in that respect (490 shots/170 on target were 11th and eighth-worst in the league, respectively) but their Achilles' heel was their inability to prevent the very best shots.

Teams shot from an average of 17.2 yards away against Spurs, the closest conceded distance of any team. They simply couldn't keep opposing teams at arm's length, letting them tee off on Lloris from inside the penalty area over and over and over again. When it came to the most dangerous kinds of shots (nonheaders inside the penalty area) Spurs gave up the fourth-most in the league, the third-most shots on target and the second-most expected goals at just under 35.

i

Toby Alderweireld has been a shrewd purchase and instrumental in shoring up Tottenham's defense this season.
Last season's Spurs squad were the definition of what trying and failing to play a press-based defense looks like. They successfully kept teams from stringing together passes -- opponents had the second-lowest completion percentage in the league at 73.6 percent -- and forced them to launch long balls rather than build attacks.

A full 20.1 percent teams' passes against Tottenham were over 35 yards, the highest total in the league. But the price they paid was being horribly exposed when opponents were able to break through, which occurred far too often. It meant that the Spurs' defense was out of position and unable to either prevent or block shots in the most dangerous areas. Mauricio Pochettino's side blocked only 25.3 percent of opponents' shots last season, the third-lowest total in the league.

No more cheap shots
All of that has changed this season. Acquiring Toby Alderweireld to play in central defense alongside his Belgian countryman Jan Vertonghen and revamping the central midfield has worked wonders. Last year's preferred pairing (Nabil Bentaleb and Ryan Mason) has been relegated to the bench through a combination of injuries and shifting priorities, while Eric Dier, who struggled last year while shuffling between right-back and center-back, has become Spurs' linchpin in a defensive midfield role.

The result is a unit whose performance this year is virtually unrecognizable from last year. All of a sudden, after a year of leaking like a sieve, Spurs can stop other teams from shooting. Last year they were average; this year they've given up the fifth-fewest total shots and are the best in the league at conceding shots on target, with Lloris only getting tested 64 times. As for those nonheaded shots in the box that Spurs were guilty of gifting to teams last year, they're almost completely gone. They've conceded the fourth-fewest of them in the league (68) and the fewest on goal (24) while overall, Spurs are conceding fewer shots.

Here are the shots Lloris faced over the first 20 games of the 2014-15 season:

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An abundance of close-range shots was a major problem for Spurs last year.
Now, the shots he has faced over the same span this season:

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Fewer shots from 10 yards out and closer is something they've worked hard on under Pochettino.
Everything is pushed out from the center. Those shots are easier for a keeper to stop and easier for defenders to block -- Spurs are now blocking 32.9 percent of opponents' shots, fourth-best in the league and another area of marked improvement.

Better yet, the back half of their defense has improved without conceding their aggressiveness over the rest of the field. They still force opponents into the second-lowest pass completion percentage. They still make teams play a higher percentage of long balls than any other team, and they still use that aggressiveness as a platform for creating chances.

Spurs have the fourth-most shots in the league despite having only the ninth-most passing attempts in the final third. Usually with a profile like that, you'd expect the team to rely on long balls from the back to begin direct attacks. But that's not how Spurs do it; instead, they rely on their defense in the middle of the field to win back possession for Christian Eriksen, Erik Lamela and Harry Kane, who combine with the young phenom Alli to create quick scoring chances before their opponent has arrested their forward momentum.

When most teams improve in one area, it comes at the expense of another. It's not only that more attacking usually means less defending and vice versa, but trade-offs might even occur within the individual phases. More wing play means less central creativity, more pressing leads to being more open at the back; it's a series of tradeoffs. That's what makes this defensive change in Spurs particularly noteworthy. Whether it's the change in personnel, tweaks in the system or simply another year of training under Pochettino, Spurs have improved part of their defense without suffering any drawbacks in other areas. That's the sign of an improving team.

This time last year, Tottenham sat in fifth place with 34 points. The fact that they're currently in fourth with 36 doesn't seem like that big a deal, especially in the context of a season that has several perennial favorites busy being unable to get out of their own way. But that's where the similarities between last season and this one end for Spurs. Last year, they struggled to keep their heads above water, and it took a whole bunch of unlikely late goals and great Lloris saves to keep them even close to contention. This year, they're still getting the heroics, but they've added a backbone to their performances.

Ultimately, goal difference might flatter Tottenham, but unlike last season, their position in the table and their point total doesn't. This team isn't good enough to challenge for the title yet, but a top-four finish is a probability. Spurs aren't simply contenders for a Champions League position; they're favorites for one. And that might be the biggest change of all.
 
Living abroad, having to make-do mainly with highlights packages, means my game opinions are too dependent on what some TV editor decides to include.
BTW, this forum is an absolute GHod-send, my replacement for getting down the pub with fellow Spuds supporters!

Welcome to the board
 
Just listened to Mr Graeme Souness being incredibly complimentary to our team. Anyone know how to get archived Talksport audio?

Said it was the best team since the 80's and that he really likes us. More to it obviously, but I was on the bog at the time and multi-tasking isn't in my skill-set.
 
Just listened to Mr Graeme Souness being incredibly complimentary to our team. Anyone know how to get archived Talksport audio?

Said it was the best team since the 80's and that he really likes us. More to it obviously, but I was on the bog at the time and multi-tasking isn't in my skill-set.
Look for the listen again segment on their website. Think it covers the last week's worth.Whose show was it on?
 
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