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Strikers' Efficiency

E

elltrev

Tim Sherwood
So I was bored, and decided to calculate the shots per goal ratio for various PL players this season:

Lampard----3.3
Hernandez--3.8
Walcott----4.3
Fletcher----4.5
Van Persie--4.6
Dzeko ------4.7
Michu------4.7
Petric------5.0
Podolski----5.5
Mata-------6.4
Fellaini-----6.5
Torres------6.7
Ba---------6.8
Berbatov---6.9
Aguero-----7.1
Rooney-----7.4
Bale--------7.7
Suarez-----8.2
Giroud------8.3
Tevez------8.6
Defoe------8.6
Jelavic-----8.8
Cazorla-----8.9
Adebayor--10.5

Not surprised to see Adebayor so low down, but it's disappointing to see Defoe - a 'poacher' and 'natural goalscorer' according to the average pundit - right near the bottom of the table. Especially as he offers relatively little outside of his shooting.

No doubt his figure is skewed by his propensity to take shots from outside of the penalty area, but perhaps that's a problem in and of itself.

This isn't intended to be an anti-Defoe thread - I actually like him, and like the fact that he seems like a true Yiddo. Just thought it might make for an interesting discussion.

(For the record, his overall figure since coming back to Spurs from Pompey is 7.7 - still not great)

** All data is from ESPN Soccernet (http://soccernet.espn.go.com/team/squad?id=367&cc=5739) **
 
Defoe might be a natural goal scorer in that he has the instinct for scoring but he is faaaar from being a natural finisher, which is as if not more important. Compare him to someone like Hernadez to just illustrate that point.
 
This is why I despise stats.

Firstly I am assuming most of Defoes shots are from outside the box
Secondly I am going to assume the reason he takes lots of shots from outside the box is because at home we struggle to break teams down (hence the reason we as a team take many long range shots - wasnt it 55% of our shots from outside the box?)
Thirdly a Hernandez will get many more chances from inside the box than Defoe as he plays in a better team which means the chances of Hernandez scoring is higher than a shot from outside the box by Defoe.

So many variables.

I would disagree with Arcey as even before I read your post I was about to say that Defoe is a much better player than Hernandez. I would go as far as to say that Hernandez is actually a poor footballer but a great goalscorer - and I wouldnt give a brick about how brick he is as a player as long as he puts the ball in the net. The ball in the net directly wins you the points not how great your overall play is. This is why the emphasis on this whole 'overall play' from a striker is just a bit wrong.
 
DHSF said:
This is why I despise stats.

Firstly I am assuming most of Defoes shots are from outside the box
Secondly I am going to assume the reason he takes lots of shots from outside the box is because at home we struggle to break teams down (hence the reason we as a team take many long range shots - wasnt it 55% of our shots from outside the box?)
Thirdly a Hernandez will get many more chances from inside the box than Defoe as he plays in a better team which means the chances of Hernandez scoring is higher than a shot from outside the box by Defoe.

So many variables.

I would disagree with Arcey as even before I read your post I was about to say that Defoe is a much better player than Hernandez. I would go as far as to say that Hernandez is actually a poor footballer but a great goalscorer - and I wouldnt give a brick about how brick he is as a player as long as he puts the ball in the net. The ball in the net directly wins you the points not how great your overall play is. This is why the emphasis on this whole 'overall play' from a striker is just a bit wrong.
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Of course stats have limitations and don't tell the whole story, but equally that doesn't mean they can be dismissed as meaningless.

I already said in my original post that Defoe takes more shots from outside the area than most, and suggested that that in itself might be considered a flaw. I agree that we do this a lot as a team, but I would argue that it's also just in Defoe's nature to do so.

You say Hernandez will get more good chances because he plays for a better team, but what about Fletcher, Michu, Petric (admittedly a small sample size for him), Fellaini, Ba - they all play for inferior teams on paper and have better shots-goal ratios.

It seems a bit simplistic to me to say that "The ball in the net directly wins you the points not how great your overall play is" - because how great your overall play is will affect the number of opportunities you get to put the ball in the net. And the thing with Defoe is that his goalscoring ability is arguably not good enough to justify his lack of conribution to the team in other ways.

Again, not trying to be a Defoe-basher here, just thought it's an interesting discussion. And ignoring the stats, from what I've seen of us this year Jermaine has often been quite wasteful with his finishing. He has the ability to score world-class goals, but also lacks the finishing of a top quality goalscorer imo.
 
elltrev said:
Of course stats have limitations and don't tell the whole story, but equally that doesn't mean they can be dismissed as meaningless.

I already said in my original post that Defoe takes more shots from outside the area than most, and suggested that that in itself might be considered a flaw. I agree that we do this a lot as a team, but I would argue that it's also just in Defoe's nature to do so.

You say Hernandez will get more good chances because he plays for a better team, but what about Fletcher, Michu, Petric (admittedly a small sample size for him), Fellaini, Ba - they all play for inferior teams on paper and have better shots-goal ratios.

It seems a bit simplistic to me to say that "The ball in the net directly wins you the points not how great your overall play is" - because how great your overall play is will affect the number of opportunities you get to put the ball in the net. And the thing with Defoe is that his goalscoring ability is arguably not good enough to justify his lack of conribution to the team in other ways.

Again, not trying to be a Defoe-basher here, just thought it's an interesting discussion. And ignoring the stats, from what I've seen of us this year Jermaine has often been quite wasteful with his finishing. He has the ability to score world-class goals, but also lacks the finishing of a top quality goalscorer imo.
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I totally agree with this however whereas you may see a striker as contributing to that "overall" play I see the defence and midfield as the crucial components of that with a striker capping off the 'overall' play. Yeah movement is key for getting those chances but thats where I was getting at with my earlier comment.

I wasnt meaning to slate you or posting that up or insinuating anything in the slightest - I just went into a rant which I tend to do. At the risk of turning this into a Defoe thread it is important to note that his contributions I feel have dwindled since Ades return.
 
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elltrev said:
Of course stats have limitations and don't tell the whole story, but equally that doesn't mean they can be dismissed as meaningless.

I already said in my original post that Defoe takes more shots from outside the area than most, and suggested that that in itself might be considered a flaw. I agree that we do this a lot as a team, but I would argue that it's also just in Defoe's nature to do so.

You say Hernandez will get more good chances because he plays for a better team, but what about Fletcher, Michu, Petric (admittedly a small sample size for him), Fellaini, Ba - they all play for inferior teams on paper and have better shots-goal ratios.

It seems a bit simplistic to me to say that "The ball in the net directly wins you the points not how great your overall play is" - because how great your overall play is will affect the number of opportunities you get to put the ball in the net. And the thing with Defoe is that his goalscoring ability is arguably not good enough to justify his lack of conribution to the team in other ways.

Again, not trying to be a Defoe-basher here, just thought it's an interesting discussion. And ignoring the stats, from what I've seen of us this year Jermaine has often been quite wasteful with his finishing. He has the ability to score world-class goals, but also lacks the finishing of a top quality goalscorer imo.
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They can be dismissed as meaningless because there's not good enough points of data tbh.
If you want efficiency in front of goal then you have to go through your data and exclude all the free kicks a player takes and speculative shots.

Compare Bale and Fletcher. Teams don't shut up shop playing Sunderland, Fletcher is never faced with 10 players behind the ball defending. Bale is faced with that all the time and often will try to take a speculative shot as an almost outside bet.
 
Defoe strikes a ball sweetly, so scores some great goals.

But he also blasts a lot quite hap-hazardly, and doesn't have the bottle in 1-on-1.
 
Hootnow said:
But the stat is minute per goal....
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Its much more difficult for a player to come on and score than it is for a player to have played from the start - thats my view always. Then again it could be argued that a sub coming on when the opposition are tiring is also an advantage.
 
All of the points raised above just show how useless stats really are. The only useful statistics in football are usually reserved for those who can pay for access to them.

The Guardian Chalkboards feature was brilliant when they ran it, gave every stat a lot more context.
 
DHSF said:
Its much more difficult for a player to come on and score than it is for a player to have played from the start - thats my view always. Then again it could be argued that a sub coming on when the opposition are tiring is also an advantage.
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Think of how many chances a game Defoe gets, if he was a half decent finisher and knew how to move and/or stay onside he would be way ahead of RVP in terms of goals
 
I believe FourFourTwo now do one, but the last time I checked you had to pay for the service and it was only available to iPhone users.
 
Eriktheviking said:
Think of how many chances a game Defoe gets, if he was a half decent finisher and knew how to move and/or stay onside he would be way ahead of RVP in terms of goals
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You could argue that recently he hasnt been getting many and this obviously is his frustration which means he turns to shooting from 20 yards although he has still been in good positions. I agree his finishing can be slightly better but since the fulham game his game has gone a bit downhill (I think he was thriving as the lone striker but Ade's return has hindered him).
 
DHSF said:
You could argue that recently he hasnt been getting many and this obviously is his frustration which means he turns to shooting from 20 yards although he has still been in good positions. I agree his finishing can be slightly better but since the fulham game his game has gone a bit downhill (I think he was thriving as the lone striker but Ade's return has hindered him).
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I'm not sure it's just Ade's return. Our team getting our game together means we have far more of the ball and we pin teams back.

In my mind Defoe excels at running behind the defensive line onto through balls.. Which he can't do if we pin teams back into their own third..
 
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