This is the worst time to get a fair result on that poll. In the summer or last season you'd get a much fairer set of responses.
There are two issues that make the question hard to answer for me. The first thing is the mangerial change, loss of VDV and other player changes, the second thing is the wording of the question.
Do you mean "Losing which player would affect the style of the team most?", "Losing which player would result in more points dropped?" "Losing which player would affect the team long term the most?"
Well, looking at the first option, Modric was the heartbeat of the team, without him we have changed from a possession based tippy tappy style to a sort of counter attack focused team without a midfield of Modric and VDV that could pass through defences, with Defoe playing so many games and Ade missing so many games, we tend to try to beat people or even get to the edge of the box and try to make space for a shot. We still don't have that many players that can play passes to launch counter attacks as we did last season and Modric's loss to play the kind of springing pass Alonso can play when Madrid counter attack hurts us.
But there are so many factors in this. For example, the team is set up more for Bale to play this style as opposed to Modric's possession based style. The managerial change is huge here. It's not possible to know how AVB would have shaped a team with Modric but without Bale or how Harry would have.
The second option. Which player's loss would result in the most points dropped?
Well, there are various factors to our start of the season hiccups. But the thing that makes this question so difficult is the huge contrast in styles between Bale and Modric. With Bale you have more of a match winner through his goals in Modric you have something completely different. Modric would assure us about 5% more possession a match, in the early season home matches which we didn't do well in, Modric might have been enough to get us the points. Bale's early season form is not the same as his form now.
But Bale's effect on other teams can make them focus on him rather than Lennon (for example), which is a harder thing to value than his goals. But if you look at our current situation with Defoe injured and not having an in form striker scoring all our goals, it's not a situation for Modric to ride in to rescue us in... VDV is a better fit for that situation than Modric. But if you look at last season with Defoe being a sub more than anything, this is not something that would have been expected in the summer.
The third option, the effect long term. Bale is younger but probably would have been sold for more. Who would we have bought to replace him? Would we have kept VDV?
Judging by last season's goals and assists, we might have just got Dempsey, thrown him left midfield and got a few goals to fill in for Bale. We haven't got the same style of player to replace Modric, but looking ahead to the next few transfer windows, Modric's price probably wouldn't have been any higher than our valuation during the summer Chelsea bid for him and the summer we sold him to Madrid... Bale's price probably has got higher. None of those things count for much if keeping one would have meant CL qualification and keeping the other would have meant not making it. So this question is impossible to answer.
A lot of this hinges on VDV's departure, it isn't likely that we'd have kept him if we'd have sold Bale instead of Modric, so there's a lot of predicting alternate seasons that goes into this and it's simply not possible to give proper answers.
For what it's worth, I'll try to answer in short terms as best I can.
Style change: Modric - The team was set up for him slightly more than Bale so setting the team up for Bale was a bigger change... That said, our team was set up for Bale too, we had that pace on the flanks and passing in the middle thing going for us. We might have moved to a 4-3-3 if Bale and VDV went but we kept Modric, as for who we'd have spent the Bale money on, I don't know. But losing the heartbeat of the team changes it more than having to replace its iron fist.
Points: Bale - This is guesswork, I'm taking the easy answer here. It's easy to see games Bale wins the team and it's much harder to see games we'd have lost without Modric. I also have the benefit of knowing Bale would have his best ever season this season. He is going to shatter his goal record and I'm in no position to know if Modric would have done a Xavi when it comes to goals, nor am I in a position to know whether Modric would have made the early season changes a little bit easier to adapt to.
Long term: Bale, taking the cynical view that selling Modric now and Bale in 2 years will net more money than Bale last year and Modric this year, it seems to make sense. Whether the huge team changes and everything else was made harder by selling Modric first is hard to say, although it does seem likely.
Final thought: If we would have kept VDV by selling Bale instead of Modric, we would have had someone to get a lot of goals and a lot of assists, which wouldn't have seen us in this "Bale is winning us games singlehandedly" phase. With Modric behind VDV, I feel that we would have got more out of Modric than in a team with Modric but without VDV.
The strange reliance we have had on Dembele all season has majorly influenced my thoughts though. He did so well early on and is still someone that we would miss if he got injured. When he missed games early in the season, we did not do well. Maybe we'd have got him anyway and played him in VDV's position as a replacement for VDV, Dempsey might have been on the left to replace Bale's goalscoring wide player void... It's impossible to say. Without knowing who we'd have got to replace Bale, this is a very hard discussion to have.
In previous seasons we've missed Modric so much that in the summer, my vote would have probably gone to him rather than Bale. But I know now what Bale has done this season and the team changes that enable him to be as effective. I still believe taking the heartbeat/focus/fulcrum of a team out has a bigger impact than anything else as far as an overall change, but I'm not sure how many points we'd have lost because we changed our style. Trying to play like we did last season without a passer would have been a mess, but credit to AVB for rebuilding and finding a way of playing that works for the players we have. (Also, nice job bringing in a bunch of AMs, rather than us having to have Gioviani Dos Santos as our only backup for VDV in that position.)
Looking at other teams in the world, it's hard to find a good comparison for this question.... Barca under Guardiola had Xavi to represent Modric but they don't really have someone to represent Bale... This season they have changed their focus and are far more direct, resulting in an easier time when Xavi can't play. Under Guardiola, when Xavi didn't play they were not Barca.
Arsenal last season only won I think 1 game without Arteta, that was the game against West Brom at the end of the season and we all know why they won that.... But you can't really compare Bale to Walcott (although Arsenal fans are trying at the moment with Walcott's goals and assists).... It's the closest one I can think of off the top of my head, Arteta being compared to Modric isn't fair on Modric either... They missed Arteta more than Walcott... Even this season, they have brought in more midfielders and got Wheelchair/Diaby back, but without Walcott they'd only have 1 fewer point, so it's really hard to compare this... Wiltshere is their heart this season anyway, although Arteta still has the number of passes that makes him a good comparison with Modric.
I can sort of think of maybe one example, but it's in reverse, David Silva and Yaya Toure... The "winger" would be Modric and the midfielder would be Bale though, which is why this is strange. But Silva has been off form for a year and Yaya has been off form for 4 months, so we've seen what City are like when they lose their best passer and when they lose their driving force.
There must be a good example in the German league, but I don't watch that league very often, I'm struggling to think of a tippy tappy team that also has a Bale style player wide and I can't think of one. I think last season we were pretty unique, probably why I loved last season's team so much. I loved wondering whether teams would pack the midfield to stop us passing and give Bale and Lennon the chance to destroy them or whether they would double mark the wingers and get passed to death through the middle.
Considering how easy the poll appears to be judging by the votes, you'd have thought with a post this long, I'd have a definite answer, but I don't.
