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Goal Difference

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Papercut

Jermaine Jenas
I'm probably repeating myself as I've mentioned it a few times...

When was the last time we had such an impressive GD? I remember for the last two decades or so seeing it pretty much zeroing out. We've been higher in the league in recent years but still not had a great GD.

I'd look at the league table and there were always a handful of teams (not necessarily at the top) with a better GD than the rest.

Look at Leicester's GD. Top of the league but the same as Everton. City, Goons and us are leading the way (we were equal with City until their goal).

Not conceding (a consistent and solid half of the spine in Lloris, Verts, Toby and Dier) and attacking in numbers (too many to list haha) - it makes a huge difference, something we've not had for a long time.

United are an interesting one - not scoring enough but not conceding too. Not played particularly well so perhaps it adds more context to GD?

Loving it.
 
agreed, it shows consistency at both ends, and if u don't concede, you can't lose of course. We have the 2nd best keeper in the league after de gea and Toby and Verts is the best CB partnership, with kane finding his groove, the future is good
 
I think it is indicative that with the scum and city we have been one of the 3 best sides in the league. We haven't always scored that winning goal and put games to bed, which is why we're in 5th place. We're not even in the CL places so baby steps.
 
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billyiddo said:
There are 7 teams who have conceded 20+ goals in the league this season, they are positioned 20th 19th 18th 17th 16th 15th and 1st!
Click to expand...

Now that is a stat!

I've always found goal difference a useful criteria for judging teams highly placed or in the relegation zone. At Christmas/New Year the clubs in the relegation vote with better goal differences are usually the ones to escape. Those near the top with poor goal difference usually fall off. In recent seasons our poor goal difference has often been a forerunner of missing out on fourth.

It's not surprising as points are more vulnerable to chance. The basic tenet of the game is scoring more goals than the opposition. Aggregate goal difference shows consistent form. So I'm encouraged by this change. I'd add that I was tinkled off by West Ham's late goal robbing us of a tie for best goal difference.
 
What is important for us is killing games off, and eliminating what complacency remains in the side. Both facets of our game need to be improved on, and both were somewhat lamentably short today: although we did eventually kill them off (and I liked that we went straight for the third from the second half KO), we wasted quite a few chances both before and after our third goal, and really, we should have scored more. And we did get complacent after the fourth: Walker mentally celebrating his goal and then miscuing (letting Lanzini through for his) is proof of that. Both need to be killed off if we're to get into that top four.
 
Fwiw, if our GD is +10 or better at the end of the season it will be for only the 6th time since 1990.

We had +26 and +25 on the 2 occasions we got a spot in the top 4.

 
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Second best GD in the league. Great stat considering we have drawn 6 of our 13 games. The highest number of draws in the league.
We need to maintain this during this crazy season. I can see some of the final league positions decided by GD.
 
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I had a brief giggle to myself today.
I looked at the table to see where we would be if we had beaten arsenal and liverpool...

"ahhh 2nd, equal points with Leicester"

It was automatic, didn't even think to look at goal difference after the last couple of seasons :D
 
So here is an interesting view, table by GD

Position by GD - Team - Difference from current table
1. Emirates Marketing Project +2
2. Tottenham Hotspur +3
3. Arsenal +1
4. Manchester United -2
5. Leicester City -4
6. Everton +1
7. Southampton +1
8. West Ham United -2
9. Liverpool 0
10. Crystal Palace 0
11. Stoke City 0
12. Watford +1
13. Swansea City +1
14. West Bromwich Albion -2
15. Chelsea 0
16. Norwich City 0
17. Saudi Sportswashing Machine 0
18. Bournemouth 0
19. Sunderland 0
20. Aston Villa 0

A lot of thoughts out of it, my quick points

- City remain favorites for title, despite one off bad results
- Leicester & West Ham's positions look a lot more normalized
- United also takes an adjustment
- Bottom 5 in right order
- Cheat$ki's position is not a abnormality vs. performances
 
Cochise said:
Whats bodes well for us is that over the years, the teams that have had the best goal differences have inevitably been the ones in the top four.
Click to expand...

Indeed.

Looking at the Top 11 teams in the league over the past decade, there's a strong correlation between final position and goal difference with +25 appearing to be the minimum standard required to earn a seat at the CL table...

1st: +41, +65, +43, +64, +41, +71, +44, +58, +56, +50; AVERAGE +53
2nd: +45, +51, +32, +56, +36, +58, +50, +39, +40, +38; AVERAGE +45
3rd: +35, +44, +36, +25, +27, +42, +44, +43, +30, +32; AVERAGE +36
4th: +25, +27, +35, +25, +29, +26, +31, +39, +28, +37; AVERAGE +30
5th: +05, +22, +20, +05, +09, +28, +18, +22, +03, +15; AVERAGE +15
6th: +04, +04, +15, +19, +15, +13, +06, +20, +16, +09; AVERAGE +12
7th: +21, +21, +28, +10, +06, +26, +05, +02, -05, +05; AVERAGE +12
8th: -03, +08, -04, +07, +06, +11, +00, +08, +05, +08; AVERAGE +4
9th: +03, -07, -04, -03, -11, -09, -03, -08, +03, -03; AVERAGE -4
10th: -04, -16, -08, -07, -11, -14, +08, -08, -02, -07; AVERAGE -7
11th: -02, -15, -17, -07, -15, -14, -11, +05, +02, -15; AVERAGE -9
 
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