• Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara

Better to be lucky or good?

superfaisty

superfaisty

Nico Claesen
So i think its fair to say weve rode our luck on many games this season, and long may it continue!

Question is how long do we think it could continue before we get more hammerings like last year?
 
superfaisty said:
So i think its fair to say weve rode our luck on many games this season, and long may it continue!

Question is how long do we think it could continue before we get more hammerings like last year?
Click to expand...

Long term luck doesn't last and it's better to be good. To some extent you make your own luck, but there's certainly a huge amount of variance in football and often it's ignored.

I know some people will disagree, but I thought we deserved more from the games against Sunderland, Saudi Sportswashing Machine and Stoke.

We really haven't looked likely to get hammerings like last year. Whatever luck we've had has been us scraping a hard fought win in a close game, not us getting outplayed by big teams. I think part of the reason for those collapses last season was that AVB was losing the dressing room and the players didn't respond. Absolutely no signs of that this season and the players that are on the pitch these days seem about as dedicated as a bunch of Spurs players have looked in a long time.
 
There's no such thing as luck. It's completely disproven by science.

You can though do things to maximise your fortune.

- Being fitter maximises your fortune
- Having a strong mentality maximises your fortune
- Gamesmanship maximises your fortune

Under Poch we are fitter, more resilient and not so nice. Hence we get late goals and other teams have players sent off against us.

We are behaving less like typical sexy victims and more like a successful team
 
Poch is also 'lucky' at not getting many injuries. Strangely this luck has followed him across 3 clubs and 2 countries.
 
Gutter Boy said:
There's no such thing as luck. It's completely disproven by science.

You can though do things to maximise your fortune.

- Being fitter maximises your fortune
- Having a strong mentality maximises your fortune
- Gamesmanship maximises your fortune

Under Poch we are fitter, more resilient and not so nice. Hence we get late goals and other teams have players sent off against us.

We are behaving less like typical sexy victims and more like a successful team
Click to expand...

Citation needed.

Depends on how you define luck I suppose. Variance over a smaller sample is certainly a thing that exists and at least a somewhat reasonable description of what luck is.
 
braineclipse said:
Citation needed.

Depends on how you define luck I suppose. Variance over a smaller sample is certainly a thing that exists and at least a somewhat reasonable description of what luck is.
Click to expand...

Luck though suggests a way of passively manipulating random chance. It's either random chance, or you actively manipulate it.

Poch is lucky like more assertive people luck their way to promotions
 
Gutter Boy said:
Luck though suggests a way of passively manipulating random chance. It's either random chance, or you actively manipulate it.

Poch is lucky like more assertive people luck their way to promotions
Click to expand...

Really? That sounds more like superstition than luck to me.
 
braineclipse said:
Citation needed.

Depends on how you define luck I suppose. Variance over a smaller sample is certainly a thing that exists and at least a somewhat reasonable description of what luck is.
Click to expand...

Randomness exists but luck doesn't. I.e. one manager or one team isn't luckier than any other.
 
braineclipse said:
Isn't it lucky to get randomness to go in your favour?
Click to expand...

Yes, but over time randomness plays less of a part. Taken over a season of football randomness has very little impact.

If it did then you'd get regular titles go to small teams like Burnley or Stoke. Instead majority of leagues world wide finish roughly in order of the amount of wages spent on the squad.
 
NWND said:
Yes, but over time randomness plays less of a part. Taken over a season of football randomness has very little impact.

If it did then you'd get regular titles go to small teams like Burnley or Stoke. Instead majority of leagues world wide finish roughly in order of the amount of wages spent on the squad.
Click to expand...

That doesn't quite make sense.

It's true that over a full season randomness doesn't have enough impact to propel a team like Stoke or Burnley to a league title, or even CL football. It doesn't have enough impact to get Emirates Marketing Project relegated. But that's not the same as randomness having very little impact, because I really don't think any factor has to be large enough to win Stoke the league (or get CL football) to be considered to have an impact beyond "very little".

As an analogy this is like saying that over a season Sergio Aguero has very little impact, because if he played for Burnely they still wouldn't get regular titles.

Being conservative I think luck/randomness can quite easily have a 5+ point impact on a team over a season. This is clearly enough to have a significant, and meaningful, impact.
 
Good of course.

But I'm not having it that teams aren't lucky sometimes. This isn't just bitterness, but Chelsea in that CL final 2 years were lucky. It's not good defending when the other team has 10 clear chances on goal and misses all but one of them, it's luck. Good defending is what they did at the Nou Camp with 10 men in the previous round, Barca barely had a sniff at goal besides the penalty which Fabregas dived for.
 
braineclipse said:
That doesn't quite make sense.

It's true that over a full season randomness doesn't have enough impact to propel a team like Stoke or Burnley to a league title, or even CL football. It doesn't have enough impact to get Emirates Marketing Project relegated. But that's not the same as randomness having very little impact, because I really don't think any factor has to be large enough to win Stoke the league (or get CL football) to be considered to have an impact beyond "very little".

As an analogy this is like saying that over a season Sergio Aguero has very little impact, because if he played for Burnely they still wouldn't get regular titles.

Being conservative I think luck/randomness can quite easily have a 5+ point impact on a team over a season. This is clearly enough to have a significant, and meaningful, impact.
Click to expand...

It possibly can do as teams are only roughly ordered by wage bill and where several teams spend the same amount roughly on wages a combination of coaching and randomness will decide their placing against other similar teams.

In terms of Chelsea in the CL and you could argue Man U against Bayern in 99, you are again selecting a one-off game where randomness can and does play a significant part in what happens.

Chelsea spend some of the biggest wages in Europe assembling teams that should always have a shot of the CL, but cup football consists of a smaller sample of games where randomness dictates the outcome to a much greater extent, hence' the magic of the duo's as statistically it's far more likely that Porto can win the champions league, Bradford can get to the league cup final and Wigan can win the fa cup
 
NWND said:
It possibly can do as teams are only roughly ordered by wage bill and where several teams spend the same amount roughly on wages a combination of coaching and randomness will decide their placing against other similar teams.

In terms of Chelsea in the CL and you could argue Man U against Bayern in 99, you are again selecting a one-off game where randomness can and does play a significant part in what happens.

Chelsea spend some of the biggest wages in Europe assembling teams that should always have a shot of the CL, but cup football consists of a smaller sample of games where randomness dictates the outcome to a much greater extent, hence' the magic of the duo's as statistically it's far more likely that Porto can win the champions league, Bradford can get to the league cup final and Wigan can win the fa cup
Click to expand...

(I'm assuming that the second and third paragraphs were replies to Jurgen, not me)

It definitely does, although of course not for all teams every season. If randomness can influence the outcome of individual games it can also influence the total number of points over a season.
 
braineclipse said:
(I'm assuming that the second and third paragraphs were replies to Jurgen, not me)

It definitely does, although of course not for all teams every season. If randomness can influence the outcome of individual games it can also influence the total number of points over a season.
Click to expand...

Not really as because randomness affects everything equally all the time (every thing that goes on in the universe has an element of randomness) it's affect when looked at over the course of a season is negligible as law of averages dictates that it will have impacted positively and negatively roughly equally for all teams.
 
lucky is defined only with the benefit of hindsight.

you can't say for sure we will be lucky going forward.

its how our brain tries to reconcile disparage facts and its more than anything an emotional response.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back