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American politics

ricky2tricky4city said:
I wonder how much the 'blockade' gonads is just more playground stuff from the Trump administration. Have they war gamed it?.

Are they trying to cut off essential incoming supplies to Iran?
Certainly be cutting Iranian income from oil exports. But who is that gonna tinkle off by extension?
Leaves the American navy vulnerable to a Trojan ship imo
Surely blocking an international waterway is against the law?
Aren't 'sanctioned' ships already passing thru?
Are they hoping this will bring Iran back to the negotiating table?
Are they hoping that tankers from other middle East countries being able to pass thru is going to stabilize or reduce the oil price?
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They probably haven't got a good grasp of geography either. Particular that whilst the Strait is Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar's only access to the oceans; Iran also has a massive southern coast (towards Pakistan) to the Arabian Sea, and also a direct sea connection to Russia in the north (Caspian Sea).
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
The problem Trump has is opponents calling his bluff. What he gonna do? 'Negotiate with bombs' .... doesn't appear to work.

He could bomb things that create a humanitarian crisis....never a good look.

Boots on the ground......welcome to Putin's world of miscalculations.
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There are no good outcomes here. He's irrevocably changed the geopolitics of the region and made Iran the de facto toll booth operators of the strait. It is a clusterfudge, but Trump's narcissism won't allow him to walk away and admit defeat. That would kill him. I brought up China, as they have warned not to fudge with ships destined for China. In saying all that, ships are travelling through the 'blockade' as of now.
 
Rorschach said:
There are no good outcomes here. He's irrevocably changed the geopolitics of the region and made Iran the de facto toll booth operators of the strait. It is a clusterfudge, but Trump's narcissism won't allow him to walk away and admit defeat. That would kill him. I brought up China, as they have warned not to fudge with ships destined for China. In saying all that, ships are travelling through the 'blockade' as of now.
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There's a great outcome actually, which is that we urgently double down of fossil fuel phase out by the more ambitious 2040 (not the heel dragging 2050). Then we can leave all the despots alone to bomb each other
 
Rorschach said:
There are no good outcomes here. He's irrevocably changed the geopolitics of the region and made Iran the de facto toll booth operators of the strait. It is a clusterfudge, but Trump's narcissism won't allow him to walk away and admit defeat. That would kill him. I brought up China, as they have warned not to fudge with ships destined for China. In saying all that, ships are travelling through the 'blockade' as of now.
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The funny thing is (mental actually) is that he's trying to get back to a point that is similar to where he was before the war.

ie Straits open, close to a deal with Iran.

What's his idea of improvements on the Obama deal?
 
I know we have all said it loads BUT prices are going to go crazy very soon. Good friend who owns a hospitality distribution fot food said produce like fruit and veg is going to triple or quadruple in 7 to 14 days unless fuel and fertilizer comes down

We are in for a nightmare 12 months ahead it seems
 
Gutter Boy said:
There's a great outcome actually, which is that we urgently double down of fossil fuel phase out by the more ambitious 2040 (not the heel dragging 2050). Then we can leave all the despots alone to bomb each other
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That would be a silver lining if it happens. The logic of the move is irrefutable just for energy security alone, never mind the more important climate-related reasons.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
The funny thing is (mental actually) is that he's trying to get back to a point that is similar to where he was before the war.

ie Straits open, close to a deal with Iran.

What's his idea of improvements on the Obama deal?
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I'm not sure that is even an option at this point. Just getting back to square one would be a 'win' he could trumpet to his deluded cult but Iran will not give up their main leverage. Anything remotely similar to the JCPOA agreement is a pipe dream for Jesus Trump now.
 
MartyFunkhouser said:
I know we have all said it loads BUT prices are going to go crazy very soon. Good friend who owns a hospitality distribution fot food said produce like fruit and veg is going to triple or quadruple in 7 to 14 days unless fuel and fertilizer comes down

We are in for a nightmare 12 months ahead it seems
Click to expand...
A few fairly serious commentators on the interweb are saying similar. There is a whole bunch of bad climate dominoes lining up on top of the war-related reasons.
 
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